Barron's bullish market predictions for the coming 12 months

andrei

Interestingly, in the latest Barron's the big money managers are betting on the bull market to continue. America's money managers consider stocks fairly valued and expect stocks to rise 7% from now through the middle of next year. By far the most popular sector is technology. 80% say that stocks will be the best investment in the next 12 months. 54% believe that US will outperform. 89% are bullish on large caps, 79% are bullish on small caps, 85% are bullish on European equities, 79% believe that the 12 months outlook for equity mutual funds and ETFs is positive, and 85% believe that the outlook for bonds is negative.

Is is a buy or sell signal?

Old_Skeet

Hi andrei,

In short words ...

Neither, I rate it, based upon their fair value assessment, a hold. Oversold=Buy, Overbought=Sell and Fair Value=Hold.

Skeeter

scott

I'm not looking to sell anything, but I'm not looking to add anything.

The only thing that I have in mind is Australian company Graincorp, if the purchase by Archer Daniels Midland is not approved by Australia's govt in December. If it is not approved, I'm a definite buyer.

andrei

Reply to @Skeeter: Could it be that stocks at Fair Value = Buy if bonds = Sell? My impression from reading the article is that the managers in average tend to believe that stocks gradually become the only game in town.

MourningStars

Agree (mostly) on the hold for equity since P/E multiple expansion may or may not occur as some seers are counting on. There are parts of the USA equity market well below the 2007-2008 bubble highs, so adding a bit to conservative and deep value managers. Will be decision time if next week's beginning flow of delayed government economic data indicates a down trend or conversely if the Fed surprises the industry with tapering when everyone is thinking and saying no taper 'till Ms. Yellen assumes the reins.

Ted

Dear Andrei: Here is the link to Google, the top item is "Raking In Returns" the Barron's article you referred to in your post. It's a great read.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.google.com/#q=raking+in+returns+barron's&tbm=nws

MaxBialystock

Barron's on EM:
http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2013/10/18/em-fund-survey-like-russia-dislike-south-africa-prefer-north-asia-to-asean/?mod=BOLBlog?mod=BOL_article_full_blog_em

STB65

To Scott:

Not finding Graincorp ADRs. Are they available on US exchanges? GNC. AU and GNC.AX (Yahoo. Finance listing) come up blank on TDA.

scott

Reply to @STB65: GRCLF.PK. I owned it before ADM bought and sold when it announced. Still, I'd like to own the company again if there is an official announcement that the deal isn't going through and the premium comes off. I'm not a huge fan of ADM, so I'd rather own Graincorp as a separate company.

Graincorp as a separate company also had a sweet, sweet dividend policy.

It's not ever going to be a high flier, but I like strategic/productive assets and the company has a near-lock on grain transport in Eastern Australia (they own silos, the rail to get to ports and ports.)

I also liked the Andersons (ANDE) in the US, which I bought after Graincorp and thought was a way to still be in something similar. I did well with that too, but you'll see I sold it a wee bit early after it ran from the mid 30's to a tad over $50. Oh well. (ANDE is also insanely volatile.)

ron

The most difficult issue I have is bonds. At age 80 I should be 70-80% in fixed income and just as I began increasing fixed income from a low level, the bond market went nuts so I stopped adding. It was a great time to have been in stocks but can't last forever. I have a lot of dividend paying funds and individual stocks doing so well, I don't want to upset anything. Added a few closed end bond funds and may continue more.