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Rob Arnott on Value Investing Comeback of 2021...Or Not
Join Research Affiliates’ Rob Arnott and I on a wide-ranging tour of the current state of markets. We make stops at the Tesla bubble, the growth stock frenzy, the bottom for value stocks, a look at small caps and interest rates and lots more.
1) US stocks are over value, the rest of the world is undervalue. US stocks did better in the last 10 years.
2) The GMO team and Arnott have been wrong for 10 years.
3) Gundlach was way wrong when he predicted the 10 year will be at 6% in 2021
4) Bogle was wrong when he predicted stocks/bonds performance based on the past and averages.
5) Inflation and interest rates can only go up. Both wrong for years.
6) inverted yield signals recession = wrong. High PE, PE10 signal the end of the bull market...wrong again for years.
7) There is no way stocks will have a V recovery in March 2020 based on blah, blah, whatever...and they did.
8) The economy is bad, unemployment is high, the debt is huge = bad future stock market. The reality? Stocks are still up.
9) If Trump will be elected, it will be a disaster. Reality? stocks were up
The truth is the 24/7 media has to write about something for someone to click and read and how they get paid.
The Fed successfully managed to do all the above and why many "experts" were wrong
If you didn't get the message already, most investors should do nothing to very little. Predictions area a flipping coin. Some will be correct just because markets go sometimes down
BTW, I always do something big when I see something crucial happening NOW but I don't recommend it to anybody. I don't mind being wrong because I invest to meet my specific goals.
Lastly, why Arnott still in business? most of us lose their jobs after just several mistakes so why people who manage money don't.
9) If Trump will be elected, it will be a disaster. Reality? stocks were up
The market is up NOT due to Trump, but Pfizer, Moderna, AstaZeneca and other COVID-19 vaccines will be available and ending of the pandemic. Only Moderna took government fund for their development while Pfizer never took a penny.
While it’s true that anyone who has been cautious at anytime since Greenspan gave his irrational exuberance speech in 1995 has missed out on some share of their potential returns - that doesn’t mean that being cautious and prudent about possible losses is necessarily wrongheaded. Everyone needs to evaluate and recognize their need, ability & willingness to take risk. Or to put it another way, no one should take more risk than they need to.
Comments
Unravelling value's decade-long underperformance (and imminent resurgence)
unravelling-values-decade-long
1) US stocks are over value, the rest of the world is undervalue. US stocks did better in the last 10 years.
2) The GMO team and Arnott have been wrong for 10 years.
3) Gundlach was way wrong when he predicted the 10 year will be at 6% in 2021
4) Bogle was wrong when he predicted stocks/bonds performance based on the past and averages.
5) Inflation and interest rates can only go up. Both wrong for years.
6) inverted yield signals recession = wrong. High PE, PE10 signal the end of the bull market...wrong again for years.
7) There is no way stocks will have a V recovery in March 2020 based on blah, blah, whatever...and they did.
8) The economy is bad, unemployment is high, the debt is huge = bad future stock market. The reality? Stocks are still up.
9) If Trump will be elected, it will be a disaster. Reality? stocks were up
The truth is the 24/7 media has to write about something for someone to click and read and how they get paid.
The Fed successfully managed to do all the above and why many "experts" were wrong
If you didn't get the message already, most investors should do nothing to very little. Predictions area a flipping coin. Some will be correct just because markets go sometimes down
BTW, I always do something big when I see something crucial happening NOW but I don't recommend it to anybody. I don't mind being wrong because I invest to meet my specific goals.
Lastly, why Arnott still in business? most of us lose their jobs after just several mistakes so why people who manage money don't.