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Noise

MJG
edited June 2021 in Fund Discussions
Hi Guys,

All the daily humdrum is simply noise. Rather then helping to make a wise investment decision it simply adds to the confusion by providing a plethora of information, some wrong, some right, that makes the investment decision more likely wrong. The solution is simple enough. Avoid that info.

Women earn more in the marketplace over men. Why that unexpected outcome? They are not slaves to the daily news! They are not motivated by all the unnecessary.activity to act unwisely. Surely doing nothing can not be the proper action. But it is. Winning in the investment world is to ignore the excitement. Just do nothing. That simple strategy will win in the long haul in most all instances. Of course, exceptions exist. That’s what makes the marketplace work, it seems as if luck is a more dominant factor than skill.

Good luck to all.

Comments

  • edited June 2021
    “Just do nothing. That simple strategy will win in the long haul in most all instances”

    Sounds a bit like the philosophy of “predestination” or “preteterminism.” I get your drift.
    In the long run - yes.

    At the same time, I refuse to accept that we as informed and intelligent individuals can’t make a difference over shorter time frames through our own well considered choices. Not everyone can afford to wait 25 or 50 years for things to work out - for that big prize at the end of the rainbow.

    Good to hear from you @MJG. Hope all is well.
  • All the daily humdrum is simply noise. Rather then helping to make a wise investment decision it simply adds to the confusion by providing a plethora of information, some wrong, some right, that makes the investment decision more likely wrong. The solution is simple enough. Avoid that info.
    --- All the daily humdrum is simply noise. Does one need to establish a different time frame, other than daily? Would a different time period be more beneficial? How does one learn, without sorting the noise?

    --- some wrong, some right. With the understanding that one must have
    at least a self-proven base of critical thinking skills to determine what may be wrong or right. Again. Learning curve, from exposure for comparison.

    --- Avoid that info. Hmmm..... Could be a moment of: "Dad, why is there thunder after lightning?" "Oh, that is just the way things happen." Versus, an explanation of the event. With the exception(s) of the full "doomsday" scenarios (which most here would likely agree is "noise"), you didn't offer any personal examples of what you consider to be noise; and whether there are many times trinkets of useful knowledge imbedded within. If I didn't pay attention over the many years; I would never have learned about what is likely noise, versus viable information; how to sort the wheat from the chaff, as to who/what is credible and not just speaking/writing hot air. I don't know how one is to learn, without having exposure to "humdrum" to establish a baseline of value.
    Women earn more in the marketplace over men. Why that unexpected outcome? They are not slaves to the daily news! They are not motivated by all the unnecessary activity to act unwisely. Surely doing nothing can not be the proper action. But it is. Winning in the investment world is to ignore the excitement. Just do nothing. That simple strategy will win in the long haul in most all instances. Of course, exceptions exist. That’s what makes the marketplace work, it seems as if luck is a more dominant factor than skill.
    --- Dang !!! I suppose I could do "bold highlight" on the whole write; but that would serve no purpose. Not being formally trained in this topic area, I"m only able to offer personal observations; as is the case for 99.9% of us. From age 3 to age 30 appears to be a time frame to discover a fully formed thinking human. Whatever the developmental stage at age 30 may likely be the baseline until the end. Whatever social exposures (wounds and victories) and formal education, or not; have greatly shaped the individual at this point.
    But wait, there's more.
    What about the left brain, right brain theories; and what motivates one's thinking process? Is this function only from body chemistry, or is this part of one's DNA string?
    The possibilities are endless. One may consider then, that a successful male investor over enough time may be as good as a woman investor; but that they don't know they are functioning from their "feminine" side of prescience and intuition. So be it !

    From the movie, "August Rush".

    The music is all around us, all you have to do is listen.

    Regards,
    Catch
  • MJG
    edited June 2021
    Hi Catch,

    Thank you for your long and strong emotional response. I never would have speculated that my rather simple posting would generate so much controversy.

    For example, study after study shows that women earn slightly superior returns over men. I meant to imply no superiority, just reporting general results.

    I do believe that luck is a major, perhaps The major player, in investing success. Far too many factors contribute to any success to be easily understood. Interpretations dominate, and we all interpret things differently given our education and experiences. That’s the marketplace once again.

    Sorry if I upset you or anyone else. That was never my intent. My comments were not made to explore the thinking process. That goes far beyond my very limited capabilities.
  • edited June 2021
    With stocks at historically high valuations, and the Fed looking to remove the infamous punchbowl, I don't think I can sit back and JUST DO NOTHING.

    I believe we have to listen to what the Fed is planning. If we are in for a "shift", you may want to consider changes in your portfolio. Bubbles do not remain inflated forever. For every 1 investor that can make it through a -38% bear market with no allocation changes, there are 2 or 3 that cannot.

    Now, with all the info. we are fed daily, it is difficult to concentrate on what really matters. Recognizing and then blocking out the noise is an art form. We are curious creatures and we do check our fund prices daily. And, we do like to protect our assets.
  • Fed is talking tapering off on bond buying. Question is when and how much?
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