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Positioning Retirement Portfolios For 2022

Happy New Years,

I just posted an article on Seeking Alpha regarding using the business cycle to evaluate funds. While the title is for Retirement Portfolios, the focus is on the business cycle including funds that do well or not during normalization of monetary policy. It includes a model portfolio for Vanguard and Fidelity.



  • Lots of data; I like it… Now I just need a few days to look it over and think about it!! 8^b
  • I appreciate all the hard work and thought that you have put into this, but I am always leery of any "System" that claims a better return based on publicly available data.

    If rotating thru sectors based on an idea of "where" the economy is works so well, wouldn't everyone do it and, therefore, it would stop working?
  • Thanks for reading @sma3. I don’t make any claim to making a better return. I strive to make a better risk adjusted return and am more focused on making a decent return with capital preservation.

    Following trends and studying business and investing is a good idea. Those that put more effort into it or are better at will generally do better. There are always exceptions in both directions. Too much of most things usually ends poorly.
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