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Anyone looking CAT and UPS good value stocks to buy at current prices?
Certainly both companies are tied to the economy, but to varying degrees so are all companies. How things play out with China impacts CAT to a large extent. But maybe the stock prices fully discount the uncertainty and are therefore a reasonable value.
I’ve looked at CAT in the past and taken a pass. I incorrectly felt it had some AG ties - but a quick check today revealed it does not have much, if any. As you say, it’s cyclical. A serious recession could affect it a lot. Note the thread now running on home sales (prices down). FWIW I recently bought a little RIO and it bounced nicely. Plan to hang on. Also, like CAT, a bellweather of the economy.
It appears Morningstar is positive on CAT according to their in depth March 31 analysis. I’ve found their analysis of individual stocks pretty good - far superior to what they generally offer-up for funds.
“ … after reporting 2024 results, we reduced our fair value estimate to $422 per share from $425, reflecting Caterpillar's modestly weaker guidance for 2025.” (CAT closed at $306.45 Friday.)
Agree it looks appealing as a long term value play - a small part of a larger more diverse basket of stocks or other risk assets.
UPS below $100 would be tempting any other time for me, but with a likely recession/stagflation and/or the insane global economic 'unknown unknowns' thanks to the Dotard-in-Tweet these days (er, nights), I think it might have farther to fall given its exposure to consumer and business shipments.
If someone took away his phone, hid his Sharpies, and gagged him in front of the cameras I'd feel better about buying UPS now.
If someone took away his phone, hid his Sharpies, and gagged him in front of the cameras I'd feel better about buying UPS now.
Buying stocks today is a bit like jumping into shark-infested waters. Statements / positions from “on high” change daily like the wind. What (perversely) gives me hope is that I think his policies will ultimately lead to substantially higher inflation so a lot of assets will need to rise in (nominal dollar) value. We may first have to wade through a nasty recession which could ding stocks .. Who knows?
RIO (which I mentioned earlier) has jumped around 12-14% past couple weeks. Was terribly beaten up. May (or may not) be forecasting something about the economy. This story reports that copper prices reached a record high recently. RIO mines the stuff. A lot goes into wiring in new construction. Actually - there’s some linkage between CAT (equipment supplier) and RIO (user).
I've been opportunistically nibbling, but buying in smaller chunks than I normally would, even to start a position. Which is frustrating at times when it goes up right away, but also helpful when it drops right away.
I've been opportunistically nibbling, but buying in smaller chunks than I normally would, even to start a position. Which is frustrating at times when it goes up right away, but also helpful when it drops right away.
I've been opportunistically nibbling, but buying in smaller chunks than I normally would, even to start a position. Which is frustrating at times when it goes up right away, but also helpful when it drops right away.
Comments
It appears Morningstar is positive on CAT according to their in depth March 31 analysis. I’ve found their analysis of individual stocks pretty good - far superior to what they generally offer-up for funds.
“ … after reporting 2024 results, we reduced our fair value estimate to $422 per share from $425, reflecting Caterpillar's modestly weaker guidance for 2025.” (CAT closed at $306.45 Friday.)
Agree it looks appealing as a long term value play - a small part of a larger more diverse basket of stocks or other risk assets.
If someone took away his phone, hid his Sharpies, and gagged him in front of the cameras I'd feel better about buying UPS now.
RIO (which I mentioned earlier) has jumped around 12-14% past couple weeks. Was terribly beaten up. May (or may not) be forecasting something about the economy. This story reports that copper prices reached a record high recently. RIO mines the stuff. A lot goes into wiring in new construction. Actually - there’s some linkage between CAT (equipment supplier) and RIO (user).
+1 / However - @masterd joined only a week ago. We’ll cut him some slack.
Fair enough. I'm mainly stalking utes, energy support, and modern infrastructure.