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Alphabet Issues Rare 100-Year Bond

edited February 14 in Other Investing
Big Tech firms, previously touted for being capital-light, are now spending vast sums of money
towards AI infrastructure. In 2025, four hyperscalers—Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft—
spent over $400 billion. The estimated 2026 capex for these four companies is $650 billion.

"Century bonds get issued when money is easy.
The first wave came in the mid to late 1990s, when companies had
a lower yield compared with safe Treasurys than any time since.
The cost of corporate debt compared with Treasurys jumped
after hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management imploded."

"The second wave came when money was actually free during the period of zero interest rates.
It didn’t end well, with Argentina defaulting after just three years and Austria’s bonds now worth
just 5% of what they were worth at issue, as zero rates proved temporary."

"The spread of corporate yields over Treasurys last month hit the lowest since just after Coke’s 1998 bond,
amid strong demand for the safety of high-quality issuers.
This is a great time for companies to borrow; it isn’t obviously a great time to lend to them."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/alphabet-s-rare-100-year-bond-tells-us-that-money-is-easy/ar-AA1W9fsF

Comments

  • edited February 15
    The big tech companies are also bringing back vertical integration. This reporting from Yahoo is not behind a paywall.
    The race to dominate the burgeoning AI market is pushing tech giants to adopt business models reminiscent of IBM's (IBM) in the 1960s.

    Big Tech "hyperscalers" Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN) are all in various stages of developing their own custom AI chips to put in their data centers and power their cloud and software offerings. Alphabet, the farthest along of the four companies, is even reportedly in talks to sell its physical chips called TPUs to Meta — a move that would see it go head-to-head with leading chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA).
    The Other day @DrVenture was commenting that no one talks about fiber optic. Then I had a Repo Man shrimp moment:
    Big Tech's production of their own components goes beyond chips: Microsoft and Amazon are actively investing in dark fiber, or currently unused fiber-optic cables that are already underground, RBC Capital Markets analyst Jonathan Atkin said in a recent note to clients. Google and Meta also own their own cables but still buy from third parties, he wrote. Those cables are necessary to connect companies' data centers and the enterprises that use them
    All part of the vertical integration. There's more at the link that I won't try to summarize here.
  • edited February 16
    It is presently thought that the potential capacity of existing fiber is only 1/60,000 of its theoretical capacity. The equipment that will avail itself of that potential is another battleground.

    @WABAC

    I have "plate of shrimp moments" all of the time. Seriously. I mentioned to a friend that I had gained a new appreciation of a particular Dylan song, that I had heard recently. I hadn't named it, yet. Without so much as a blink, he named it: Shelter From The Storm? And he said, "Me too!"

    I was gobsmacked. Cosmic unconsciousness.
  • Interesting they issued the bond in GPB, CHF, and EUR but (to my knowledge) not USD. What do they know that we don't?
  • edited February 16
    I still try to wrap my head around the same question. Here is my wild guess.

    As EU government continue to sell dollar (i.e. treasury), these institutional fund have to invest elsewhere. Here is where high quality bonds from US tech companies present. Google may change to something else 100 years from now or the AI story goes busted, these bonds still get pay their creditors. That is the assumption for institutional investors. Europe will still be around but individual investors will not.

    This is a case of extreme confidence on Google. We will see how this will play out. Here is another take.
    https://cnn.com/2026/02/10/business/google-one-hundred-year-bond#openweb-convo
  • edited February 16
    If it's "rare", this 100-year bond, surely it must be valuable!

    Joking, of course.

  • Examples in the link say otherwise. IBM and Motorola became a shadow of themselves. JC Penny went bankrupt.
    I may consider a 6 month term with 10% dividend to reflect the risk.
    IBM issued its 100-year bond in 1996, when its dominance of the tech scene wasn’t in question. But almost immediately after, scrappy rivals like Microsoft and Apple came along to chip away at IBM’s market leader status.

    Another 90s icon, JC Penney, sold $500 million of its century bonds in 1997, only for those bonds to sell for pennies on the dollar 23 years later, when the retailer filed for bankruptcy. (Bond holders are creditors, so they fare slightly better than equity investors in a bankruptcy, but often only marginally so.)

    The last US company to issue this kind of debt was Motorola, in 1997. (For the kids: Motorola made cellphones and pagers. Pagers were these devices that… you know what, just Google it.)

    “At the start of 1997, Motorola was a top 25 market cap and top 25 revenue corporation in America,” tweeted investor Michael Burry of “Big Short” fame on Monday. “The Motorola corporate brand in 1997 was ranked #1 in the US, ahead of Microsoft… Today Motorola is the 232nd largest market cap with only $11 billion in sales.”

    Motorola is still kicking, and it’s still servicing its debt, meaning bond holders are still getting paid. But the timing of Motorola’s bond issuance, quickly followed by its steady decline, pretty well crushed any remaining appetite for such long-dated corporate debt. The bond itself didn’t cause Motorola’s decline, but the decision to issue it looked like a symptom of classic corporate hubris.
  • Is there even a way to assign a risk value to a 100-year company bond?
  • Even if that can be ‘rated’ somehow, but it assumes the company will do well in the next 100 years. How many time we have seen the rise and fall of companies evolved over time? Some examples comes to my head :

    Kodak, failed to change to digital even though they made successful prototpe SLR camera.
    Polaroid, a single product company who failed to innovate to the digital world
    US Steel, old and inefficient manufacturing process. Japan and Germany leapfrogged steel production with electric arc method after WWII.
    Sears, did not keep up time and failed to compete with large retailers such as Walmart

    And there are many more. Please feel free to add.
  • Oh yeah!

    K-Mart ruled their space at one time.
    GE arguably collapsed as a conglomerate.
    Montgomery Ward no longer exists in brick and mortar.

    Interestingly, NCR transitioned into a software company. At one point AT&T bought them. The joke was that the new company name would be Cash Registers and Phones (CRAP). Then, like T did with almost any acquisition, they spun them back off, worse than they found them.
  • DrVenture said:

    Oh yeah!

    K-Mart ruled their space at one time.
    GE arguably collapsed as a conglomerate.
    Montgomery Ward no longer exists in brick and mortar.

    Interestingly, NCR transitioned into a software company. At one point AT&T bought them. The joke was that the new company name would be Cash Registers and Phones (CRAP). Then, like T did with almost any acquisition, they spun them back off, worse than they found them.

    I have always thought it was a great thing that the telephone industry didn't get it's hands on the PC industry. This is only based on my experience with phone technicians that always had to go back to their truck within the first five minutes of any service call.
  • Bell Labs was incredible. Invented the transistor, lasers, solar cells, MOSFET, UNIX, C-language, fiber optics, cellular technology, digital signal processing, satellite communications, radio astronomy, information theory, voice recognition.

    WeCo was an amazing manufacturing powerhouse, with tight quality control. In addition to telephone equipment, it produced a wide variety of consumer goods. It essentially ceased to exist in 1996. Bell Labs was created from Western Electric's engineering operations.

    I had family that worked at the Western Electric Hawthorne Works. At its peak, it employed 45,000 workers, and was a city unto itself. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawthorne_Works

    AT&T Long lines and Bell System local service was the cash cow. Most people's experience with AT&T was through both of them. AT&T did rebrand some Olivetti PCs in the 1980's, but never got into personal computing in any real fashion.

    Bell Labs is now Nokia Bell Labs. Since Dotcom, what was originally Bell Labs/WeCo (Lucent) acquired or merged with Northern Telecom, Alcatel & eventually Nokia. They hold a sh*t ton of patents, and at least 11 Nobel prizes. The headquarters are in Finland. Notably, Nokia stock is doing really well in the last year - up 44%.

    In the U.S., most are only familiar with Nokia cellphones. Globally, they are well known multinational in telecom, IT and consumer products, with a history even longer than AT&T.

    Both AT&T and Nokia could have issued 100 year bonds and been around to honor them.

    And that is how you take a long twisted story, and keep it on topic!

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