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Hanging on to our dry powder till orange war expends his?
We are holding off allocating any new funds to equities until either Jared and Witkoff or Hegseth influence the orange manchild. Is this a bad form of market timing?
No, that is to keep all options available when the opportunities arrive. That is why Buffet is keeping a large cash position. It is a question of cash drag versus opportunity cost.
Sometime being conservative is a good thing to address risk such as the following:
1. If and when AI trades end, you will have ample opportunities. For now, we're repositioning our bonds, but no buying of stocks. 2. Have Witkoff and Kusher proven to be skillful negotiators, especially with Iran? I think not. 3. Tariffs policy will continue despite Supreme Court ruling. The crooks will find another ways.
We are keeping about 3-5% cash and 3-5% precious metals. As soon to be retiees, we don’t have the time for recovery as we learned from 2008’s drawdown.
We are holding off allocating any new funds to equities until either Jared and Witkoff or Hegseth influence the orange manchild. Is this a bad form of market timing?
There is money to be made in FI, right now. I have several FI funds doing far better than S&P YTD.
Money is fleeing U.S. debt/equity for a reason. Still, all this volatility seems to be good for stock picking and trading. My individual stock portfolio is up 13% YTD. Partly, due to opportune timing, partly due to a rotation away from large growth. I also have a decent amount of dry powder, mainly in TBUX.
No, that is to keep all options available when the opportunities arrive. That is why Buffet is keeping a large cash position. It is a question of cash drag versus opportunity cost.
Sometime being conservative is a good thing to address risk such as the following:
1. If and when AI trades end, you will have ample opportunities. For now, we're repositioning our bonds, but no buying of stocks. 2. Have Witkoff and Kusher proven to be skillful negotiators, especially with Iran? I think not. 3. Tariffs policy will continue despite Supreme Court ruling. The crooks will find another ways.
We are keeping about 3-5% cash and 3-5% precious metals. As soon to be retiees, we don’t have the time for recovery as we learned from 2008’s drawdown.
I agree with taking advantage of FI opportunities. I have bought a few stocks in the last 2 months, but quite selectively. The results have been far better than what I was getting in my sweep account. Despite one of them being a real dog.
Most seem to agree that the AI trade may have gotten a bit frothy. That needs to be reconciled over time, as you say. It does seem like it is only a matter of time before the U.S. launches another attack on Iran. Markets will likely contract at that time.
Beware of people touting the U.S. economy, while investing in foreign markets.
When it all collapses, none of us will be surprised. It could be months or a year from now, who knows. When that day arrives, MAGA will blame Biden, like the tools that they are.
Meanwhile, trade rotation away from the US (both debt and equity) will remain in place.
We are now persona non-grata throughout the world, at multiple levels.
The gaslighting does not appear to be stopping the flow of investment dollars from our shores. Rather than address any of that they present irrelevant talking points. In some lame attempt change the subject. Or bog people down with deflections.
What we know factually, is that economic indicators have been steadily deteriorating. It takes a lot to push such a strong economy off its trajectory, but given enough time...
Everyone’s circumstance and risk tolerance are different. Once we figure out your living expense (for several years), we will explore more investment options. On taxable account, we do stock picking while balance the risk with many T bills. On our IRA, we are conservative with asset allocation. As @DrVenture pointed out, our FI sleeve are doing very well. The cash and precious metals are for out tactical moves.
What we know factually, is that economic indicators have been steadily deteriorating. It takes a lot to push such a strong economy off its trajectory, but given enough time...
Yes, given enough time, the pillars of our economy deteriorate. Intl trade agreements (and partnerships) are broken. The gaslighting from the top helps to extend the inevitable decline, but for how long?
Meanwhile, the POTUS builds a personal army (ICE) and steals billions from the coffers. Excess corruption, poor tactical moves (tariffs), isolationism and removal of immigrant workforce. Throw in some minor threats of war at the behest of a man in search of Peace prizes (irony) and deflections (Epstein files). A clear and present danger.
Risk off. Limited upside with more holes than a block of swiss cheese.
Comments
Sometime being conservative is a good thing to address risk such as the following:
1. If and when AI trades end, you will have ample opportunities. For now, we're repositioning our bonds, but no buying of stocks.
2. Have Witkoff and Kusher proven to be skillful negotiators, especially with Iran? I think not.
3. Tariffs policy will continue despite Supreme Court ruling. The crooks will find another ways.
We are keeping about 3-5% cash and 3-5% precious metals. As soon to be retiees, we don’t have the time for recovery as we learned from 2008’s drawdown.
Will 5-10% of your portfolio save the other 90+%?
Money is fleeing U.S. debt/equity for a reason. Still, all this volatility seems to be good for stock picking and trading. My individual stock portfolio is up 13% YTD. Partly, due to opportune timing, partly due to a rotation away from large growth. I also have a decent amount of dry powder, mainly in TBUX.
Most seem to agree that the AI trade may have gotten a bit frothy. That needs to be reconciled over time, as you say. It does seem like it is only a matter of time before the U.S. launches another attack on Iran. Markets will likely contract at that time.
Beware of people touting the U.S. economy, while investing in foreign markets.
Meanwhile, trade rotation away from the US (both debt and equity) will remain in place.
We are now persona non-grata throughout the world, at multiple levels.
So much winning
But, maga talking points say otherwise. lol
The gaslighting does not appear to be stopping the flow of investment dollars from our shores. Rather than address any of that they present irrelevant talking points. In some lame attempt change the subject. Or bog people down with deflections.
What we know factually, is that economic indicators have been steadily deteriorating. It takes a lot to push such a strong economy off its trajectory, but given enough time...
Meanwhile, the POTUS builds a personal army (ICE) and steals billions from the coffers. Excess corruption, poor tactical moves (tariffs), isolationism and removal of immigrant workforce. Throw in some minor threats of war at the behest of a man in search of Peace prizes (irony) and deflections (Epstein files). A clear and present danger.
Risk off. Limited upside with more holes than a block of swiss cheese.