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End Of Year Open Thread: What Are You Buying/Selling/Pondering
Recently made Brown Forman (BF.B) and Liberty Media (LMCA) - two things that I've owned before - long-term positions. Scotiabank (BNS) has gone down to the point where I may start a position in that with its 4% yield.
I'm in no rush so I am mostly just pondering: FEU as discussed in another thread mostly for the dividend, PML a muni bond fund, OAK and a REIT or two-three which I am still performing dd on (STWD, WPC, BRX, STAG). If the REIT's and healthcare take a beating together then HCN, HCP and/or HTA.
I'm in no rush so I am mostly just pondering: FEU as discussed in another thread mostly for the dividend, PML a muni bond fund, OAK and a REIT or two-three which I am still performing dd on (STWD, WPC, BRX, STAG). If the REIT's and healthcare take a beating together then HCN, HCP and/or HTA.
I own STWD and WPC. WPC is a favorite, very long-term position. However, it seems expensive to me at this point (as does O, which I don't own but is also a popular option.) That's not to say that it couldn't go higher (and I wouldn't complain if it did), but I have no plans to add to it or sell it.
The other REIT that I find mildly interesting (but not at these levels) is ELS, which owns a lot of waterfront (or near water) property.
Not a REIT (it's an MLP), I own a Brookfield Property Partners (BPY), which is a giant, diversified real estate co (retail, industrial, hotels, offices, special situations, etc.)
@Scoot - O & OHI are my long term holdings (years). They just keep rolling along and I'm not inclined to add to them at current prices like you. I may end up deciding to give Motif investing a whirl by building a REIT motif but right now there are grumblings about Motif not paying out dividends to current motif investors. I have to find out what that is all about first.
Moved a few % to cash Monday which we'll pull out as our 2015 IRA distribution at the start of the year. Essentially, skimmed the same % from all the various funds across the board. One exception is that I left our now sizable position in PRNEX alone. Net-net that fund increased slightly to just over 12% of our total. Also, I didn't take any from a smaller position in the commodities fund QRAAX or from our small hold in DODLX - which has also had a rough year.
I'll will note that Mr. Market cooperated a bit, as Monday was probably at or near the year's top for the equity indexes.
@Scoot - O & OHI are my long term holdings (years). They just keep rolling along and I'm not inclined to add to them at current prices like you. I may end up deciding to give Motif investing a whirl by building a REIT motif but right now there are grumblings about Motif not paying out dividends to current motif investors. I have to find out what that is all about first.
You know, I was going to go for Motif, until I read somewhere that they don't allow DRIP, which - for me, given that I'm pretty dividend-oriented - is kind of a deal breaker.
Edited to add:
No on DRIP, I remembered I read it on their website.
Not buying anything right now, but yesterday I did place 3 limit orders for stocks I would like to buy, one stock each in 3 sectors I'm hoping do well in 2015, financial, energy and tech. The limit buy orders are for a 5% drop from their close as of yesterday. If they pull back to those prices - great. If not I'll wait. The stocks of interest are AIG SLB and INTC. I have 10% of my portfolio set aside to play with, which is where these stock bets fit in.... fwiw.
I'm a bit of a contrarian. The fund has substantial energy holdings which as you know are depressed at this time. It's a longer term hold (which I've also previously owned it in the past). I think they do a good job trying to hedge against rising inflation. Since inflation appears to be falling, the fund's not performing very well now. The fund also has one of Price's more reasonable ERs at around 0.65%. From what I've read, the current manager has diversified a bit more broadly into the growth stock areas. So a rising equity market would likely pull the fund along despite the current drag from energy - which I view as temporary.
In an IRA, RPMGX hit the dollar value for a haircut, so O and WPC were the landing places for these funds...yes, a bit richly valued but they fit nicely in the long term income sleeve.
In the taxable account, on the next trading day I will be eliminating a position in ACRNX that I received via inheritance, and moving the funds directly into SCMFX.
I've been looking for eventual replacements for a small and mid-cap value holding in a current 401K, and after reading about that fund on this site, and following it for several months, I feel pretty good about this fund. I may hold this in both taxable and IRA accounts if things work out.
We'll be looking towards component 3 of our mutli variable tactical model in the 3rd week of Jan. in order to determine if we go to cash, or stay in index etf ( QQQ ) till the 1st week of July. Component 1 + 2 have signalled "over"performance vs. the long term valuation measure since 3rd week of Jan 2014. Statistically, over a 90 year sample, a mean reversion in price is in order, but not guaranteed. And, if we go to cash and share prices continue moving up, we are unmoved because we have confidence in the statistical, and not "anecdotal", evidence. A review of the rolling 20 year CAGR growth rate of the model applied towards the QQQ/Nasdaq 100 (chart 7 in the first link below), also keeps us from veering off course from the strategy. This is what asset compounding through a growth stock universe via tactical allocation and risk mitigation is all about.
Now that I have received most of my yearend distributions from my mutual funds I am flush with cash within my portfolio. In doing my yearend Morningstar Instant Xray analysis I am finding that I am light in bonds as it is showing that I am about four percent light from my current target of 25%. This is due, in part, to many of my hybrid funds lightening up on bonds and moving to heavier allocations in cash, stocks, and other assets. So even with the large distributions that I had from many of my mutual funds I still have a good representation in equities and currently being about 5% heavy in them form my neutral target.
Since, Morningstar is reporting that stocks, in general, are currently about 3% overvalued and the WSJ is reporting that the S&P 500 Index is selling on a TTM P/E Ratio of 19.6 and on forward estimates of 17.2 … I am going to wait for a pull back before I do much if any buying. I might even start selling down my equity spiff should equities stage a rally and reach 2100 on the Index in the near term.
I am thinking though a near term dip (A decline in price of up to five percent.) or possibly a pullback (A decline in price of five to ten percent.) is on the horizon for the stock market.
So score me as just pondering.
Have a great New Year … and, I wish all “Good Investing.”
I thought I'd bring Scott's thread back towards the front as indeed this is one of the better ongoing threads for it allows for us to express our own independent thinking. Over the weekend, my posture has not changed going into the New Year with this the first full week of trading; but, to provide a link to Doug Short's thinking on market valuation.
With this, Old_Skeet is looking for value to start appearing in the market as oil continues to slide. This morning, I saw where oil was getting down towards $51.00 a barrell ... Do I hear $50.00?
Stay tuned folks ... We are now down about 2.5% form the 52 week high on the S&P 500 Index and looking for more decline to come. Seems we are now well into the good dip I was looking for. Will this decline venture into a pullback? Perhaps, as we move through January and by about the third week of January Fourth Quarter Earning Season reporting will begin. For us to have a good run in the markets we will need a good pullback as the set up for this run to have some legs. Mr. Short is forecasting earnings on the Index to be about $117.77 as we close out March 2015. This would equate to about a 7.5% increase for the quarter.
I am now formulating my buy list in anticipation of the pullback range being reached.
Have a good week ... and, most of all, I wish all "Good Investing."
@Old_Skeet, This week should be telling as traders are coming back from their Christmas - New Year time off. It will be interesting to see the volume numbers as well as a confirmation indicator which ever way the markets go.
The first week will indeed be telling ... Will the decline continue? If so, I'll continue to look at formulating my buy list as greater value will be coming into the markets with a price decline. And, should it turn upward and reache 2100 on the S&P 500 Index, in the nearterm, then, I'll sell about one fifth of my spiff into this market strength. At 2100, I'll have a return of better than ten percent on the spiff. Not a bad return for less than 90 days of venture.
I wonder what Junkster is seeing? He was spot on with his call on high yield muni last year!
At under $50 I'd consider converting some beaten up energy fund or commodities fund to a Roth. Pay taxes now & sit on it for 5 or 10 years. bee has in the past shared some good strategies on how you can actually place a bet this way and than "recharacterize" a year later if the position continues to lose.
I'm a bit reluctant due to age (70) as normally you need to wait 5 years before touching that $$. (Not a tax expert, but it's possible that restriction applies only to the gains & not the original investment.)
Proviso: Oil could go to $25. However, at that level I'd expect we'd be experiencing profound deflationary pressures here at home (as they seem to be in Europe now). Stocks of just about all kinds generally tank under such severe deflationary forces.
I don't mind constructive critiques. Just some rambling thoughts this morning. We're traveling & might not have time to respond. Good day all.
bee has in the past shared some good strategies on how you can actually place a bet this way and than "recharacterize" a year later if the position continues to lose.
Maxing out Roth IRAs ($13,000)......what to buy? good question...... think I'll think about it.... rollover some traditional money later....after income clears up a bit
GILD working out okay after adding to that when it dropped 20% in a matter of a couple of days. Added BNS. May look at CIOXY and ABEV although I think Brazil unfortunately remains something of a mess. May look at DEO again.
Comments
The other REIT that I find mildly interesting (but not at these levels) is ELS, which owns a lot of waterfront (or near water) property.
Not a REIT (it's an MLP), I own a Brookfield Property Partners (BPY), which is a giant, diversified real estate co (retail, industrial, hotels, offices, special situations, etc.)
I'll will note that Mr. Market cooperated a bit, as Monday was probably at or near the year's top for the equity indexes.
Edited to add:
No on DRIP, I remembered I read it on their website.
https://www.motifinvesting.com/view/faq#/otherFAQs
I'm a bit of a contrarian. The fund has substantial energy holdings which as you know are depressed at this time. It's a longer term hold (which I've also previously owned it in the past). I think they do a good job trying to hedge against rising inflation. Since inflation appears to be falling, the fund's not performing very well now. The fund also has one of Price's more reasonable ERs at around 0.65%. From what I've read, the current manager has diversified a bit more broadly into the growth stock areas. So a rising equity market would likely pull the fund along despite the current drag from energy - which I view as temporary.
Have a great year, Derf
No changes since last post.
Own OXY in energy and through GE, which continues to stall in mid 20s.
BAC marches on. Will be interesting to see how market reacts if it restores its dividend. Here's the sad picture, since 2007...
Hmmm. Let's see...$2.40/$17.89=13.4%!
I too have AIG on my watch list, though I own a chunk via FAAFX. Will likely add more energy if sector continues to pull back.
I very much enjoy holding OAK and HCP.
Would be nice to see solid opening for January...no head fakes.
Have been tracking SYLD and QVAL daily (don't tell anyone)...both appeal to me.
In the taxable account, on the next trading day I will be eliminating a position in ACRNX that I received via inheritance, and moving the funds directly into SCMFX.
I've been looking for eventual replacements for a small and mid-cap value holding in a current 401K, and after reading about that fund on this site, and following it for several months, I feel pretty good about this fund. I may hold this in both taxable and IRA accounts if things work out.
http://stockmarketmap.wordpress.com/2014/04/
http://stockmarketmap.wordpress.com/
Now that I have received most of my yearend distributions from my mutual funds I am flush with cash within my portfolio. In doing my yearend Morningstar Instant Xray analysis I am finding that I am light in bonds as it is showing that I am about four percent light from my current target of 25%. This is due, in part, to many of my hybrid funds lightening up on bonds and moving to heavier allocations in cash, stocks, and other assets. So even with the large distributions that I had from many of my mutual funds I still have a good representation in equities and currently being about 5% heavy in them form my neutral target.
Since, Morningstar is reporting that stocks, in general, are currently about 3% overvalued and the WSJ is reporting that the S&P 500 Index is selling on a TTM P/E Ratio of 19.6 and on forward estimates of 17.2 … I am going to wait for a pull back before I do much if any buying. I might even start selling down my equity spiff should equities stage a rally and reach 2100 on the Index in the near term.
I am thinking though a near term dip (A decline in price of up to five percent.) or possibly a pullback (A decline in price of five to ten percent.) is on the horizon for the stock market.
So score me as just pondering.
Have a great New Year … and, I wish all “Good Investing.”
Old_Skeet
Here is what Doug Short's thinking is on market valuation and a link is provided for your easy reference. http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/PE-Ratios-and-Market-Valuation.php
With this, Old_Skeet is looking for value to start appearing in the market as oil continues to slide. This morning, I saw where oil was getting down towards $51.00 a barrell ... Do I hear $50.00?
Stay tuned folks ... We are now down about 2.5% form the 52 week high on the S&P 500 Index and looking for more decline to come. Seems we are now well into the good dip I was looking for. Will this decline venture into a pullback? Perhaps, as we move through January and by about the third week of January Fourth Quarter Earning Season reporting will begin. For us to have a good run in the markets we will need a good pullback as the set up for this run to have some legs. Mr. Short is forecasting earnings on the Index to be about $117.77 as we close out March 2015. This would equate to about a 7.5% increase for the quarter.
I am now formulating my buy list in anticipation of the pullback range being reached.
Have a good week ... and, most of all, I wish all "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
The first week will indeed be telling ... Will the decline continue? If so, I'll continue to look at formulating my buy list as greater value will be coming into the markets with a price decline. And, should it turn upward and reache 2100 on the S&P 500 Index, in the nearterm, then, I'll sell about one fifth of my spiff into this market strength. At 2100, I'll have a return of better than ten percent on the spiff. Not a bad return for less than 90 days of venture.
I wonder what Junkster is seeing? He was spot on with his call on high yield muni last year!
Old_Skeet
At under $50 I'd consider converting some beaten up energy fund or commodities fund to a Roth. Pay taxes now & sit on it for 5 or 10 years. bee has in the past shared some good strategies on how you can actually place a bet this way and than "recharacterize" a year later if the position continues to lose.
I'm a bit reluctant due to age (70) as normally you need to wait 5 years before touching that $$. (Not a tax expert, but it's possible that restriction applies only to the gains & not the original investment.)
Proviso: Oil could go to $25. However, at that level I'd expect we'd be experiencing profound deflationary pressures here at home (as they seem to be in Europe now). Stocks of just about all kinds generally tank under such severe deflationary forces.
I don't mind constructive critiques. Just some rambling thoughts this morning. We're traveling & might not have time to respond. Good day all.
splitting-a-roth-conversion-into-multiple-accounts-to-isolate-investments-for-strategic-recharacterization/