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Persistently High Corporate Profit Margins-Maybe Things Really Are Different This Time

"....it’s becoming increasingly difficult for open-minded investors to reject the possibility that “this time is different”–i.e., the possibility that the observed profit margin increase relative to past averages is secular in nature, and that the much-awaited mean reversion isn’t going to happen."

"If a “Winner Take All” economy, where increased barriers to entry–network barriers, patent barriers, regulatory barriers, and so on–have allowed a concentrated group of dominant companies to earn substantially higher profit margins and push up on the aggregate profit margin, is the main driver of the aggregate profit margin increase, then we should expect.....the higher-tier companies to have seen larger increases in their profitability than the lower-tier companies. Increases in their profitability–at the expense of the lower tiers–would represent the “Winner” gradually “Taking All.”"

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"The effect is....concentrated in sectors where the dominant players have pricing power–technology, finance, consumer staples, consumer discretionary, health care, and to a lesser extent, industrials."

philosophicaleconomics.com/2015/05/profit-margins-in-a-winner-take-all-economy/


Comments

  • beebee
    edited May 2015
    Great stuff...now which mutual fund best represents that top tier?

    Article eludes to sectors:

    " The effect is instead concentrated in sectors where the dominant players have pricing power–technology, finance, consumer staples, consumer discretionary, health care, and to a lesser extent, industrials."

  • @bee My focus when reading the article was mostly on what the currently somewhat elevated market P/E ratio might mean for the market going forward. It moved my dial a little further away from the "highly concerned" end of the spectrum.

    I suspect there are board members who devote a portion of their portfolios to funds that focus on investing in some of the dominant best-of-breed companies that are able to maintain their high profit margin levels through time. Perhaps they can share some examples of this type of fund.
  • The stock speculators' Famous Last Words: "It's different this time."

    Right.
  • Sounds like capitalism to me
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