Interesting 24-page report....
http://investments.miraeasset.us/perspectives/2012-global-outlook-on-emerging-markets.html2012 Global Outlook on Emerging Markets
Executive Summary
•Increased levels of volatility have enveloped global equity markets in the second half of 2011. Contagion in the euro zone and fiscal uncertainty in the US have weighed on stock prices and future growth prospects globally.
•Inflationary pressures have abated across emerging market countries on the back of a slowdown in global growth. Food and commodity prices have fallen from their early 2011 peaks, which has resulted in a drop in consumer and producer prices.
•In anticipation of weaker demand and slower growth from developed markets, central banks in emerging market economies have begun to loosen monetary policy. We expect this trend to continue into the first half of 2012, as the macro environment remains unclear.
•Valuation remains attractive across emerging market equities, relative to their developed market counterparts. Price-to-earnings ratios are below long-term historical averages and close to 2008 lows.
•Emerging market equity fund flows, while negative for the year, are likely to reverse course modestly in 2012 given attractive valuation and resilient economic growth in the region, although risk appetites will remain suppressed until a clearer resolution of the euro zone debt crisis materializes.
Comments
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/mirae-asset-global-investments-releases-emerging-markets-outlook-2012-2011-12-12
NEW YORK, Dec 12, 2011 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- In a report issued today, senior investment professionals from emerging markets leader Mirae Asset Global Investments announced that they believe developing economies will continue to have robust growth potential and that inflationary pressures have abated in the face of a slowdown in global growth. In 2012, they also believe that the flow of assets to emerging nations has the potential to resume as equity valuations remain attractive across the emerging markets, relative to their developed market counterparts.
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Outlook: Broad Emerging Markets
Economic growth in emerging markets will likely outshine the rest of the world in 2012, given the weak growth prospects beleaguered developed nations currently are facing (pg 5). In anticipation of weaker demand and slower growth from developed markets, central banks in emerging market economies have begun to loosen monetary policy. We expect this trend to continue into the first half of 2012, as the global macro environment remains unclear (pg 1 summary).
Equity valuations look attractive across the emerging markets, as price-to-earnings and price-to-book value ratios remain below historic long-term averages.(1) The markets are expected to refocus and return to trading on fundamentals as volatility abates. As market volatility subsides from August 2011 peaks, emerging market fund flows globally have begun to reverse course and trend positive. We anticipate modest inflows to emerging market funds, once the developed market turmoil is contained and investor risk appetite returns to pre-crisis levels. (pg 7).