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davidrmoran
I myself see a big pullback coming in the next six months but I don’t know that I have ever been correct over 45 years. I will put a lot of money in if a 10% pullback comes. I expect you r being prudent depending on how old you are. The thing is, if you’re young, you might as well stick it out and not try to time. He said.
Backtesting with the actual performance data would work for me. Same as when I see how a mutual fund has done.
Right, stories are not as good --- although note that investors here and elsewhere make that decision all the time; a large percentage o…
He appears to be directing traffic to a pretty interesting site that does autosubbing / reconstruction of a given fund using etfs.
I would not be at all surprised that there is a market for this; Lord knows many of us try to do it manually.
Ted, jus…
7 if bundled, else a few more:
DSEEX / DSENX, PRBLX, FLPSX, DVY, FREAX / FRIFX / VNQI, SGOIX / FOSFX, PONDX / PDI .
plus several once glorious now ratty stocks.
It would be real nice to have the Symbol column stick (stay) when scrolling horizontally.
Here's an exercise for US LC div / value types. Examine mfund PRBLX against the usual etfs SPHD, CAPE, NOBL, OUSA, HDV, SCHD, VYM, DVY, with IJH for a side en…
This helped me:
'What’s happening isn’t really spooky action at a distance; it’s spooky distance, revealed through an action.'
http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/11/30/spooked-books-adam-gopnik
Right, it should go without saying that with all short-term investing, volatility sure as heck equates to risk, without question. Game of chance and all that.
One of my kids studied economics and later got an MBA from where French is a professor; after I emailed the Buffett piece, I got this response:
This is interesting; I did not know these thoughts of Buffett. And I've always felt suspicious of risk =…
>> If as an investor you elect to ignore MPT metrics, you throw caution to the wind and invest using other nebulous selection criteria. In no way have I distorted or misrepresented these facts. You might not agree with the methodology or the …
Tautological, and in any case as total-market / undiversifiable risk is not really what's under discussion.
It's clear though from the wikip entries on financial risk and standard deviation that these different aspects are commonly conflated crude…
An old friend of mine who's a retired NYTimes reporter still living in an affluent NJ suburb has recalled how, starting that afternoon, the local citybound commuter rail parking lots remained full of fancy cars, waiting. For several days.
Fascinating that you cite that 5yo Kiplinger piece!
Goldberg too should talk to Buffett. He remarks Heebner's volatility but then trips in the dust by noting CGMFX actually did not do as badly in the downtown as he would have thought. Say what? I m…
I cannot imagine why you would condescendingly assume that I (or Buffet) or anyone else here does not well understand geometric return (CAGR). This is why $10k growth is graphed.
I don't know if I have had a successful investing career; hard to sa…
Of course the reason I asked is that you wrote
>> The less volatile investment yields the better cumulative return
and if this 'betterness' were in fact true (see Buffet) everyone could be in balanced funds and call it a day. Is that how yo…
>> Given that [cash] buffer, I can be more aggressive with the rest of the portfolio.
Yeah, this really cannot be said enough:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/when-it-comes-to-stock-vs-cash-follow-buffetts-lead-2015-04-08
Why ever own bond…
@MJG,
Jeez, so easy to check what actually happened and how it all went:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARPANET
Not a debate, not in anyone's mind. Everyone acknowledges by now the team, the players, the protocols, the state of art by stages, and t…
The longer proper-name acronyms (meaning pronounceable) have a long and honorable history of going initial-cap only (optionally). Cf. Nasdaq, Unicef, Nascar among many others. This minor language issue aside, you never need wag your finger about suc…
As a technical editor I was just interested in getting my terms and understanding right, or less wrong, investing aside. Independent events appear to correlate all the time, so it's the parsing of that over time that I wish to understand. wikip has …
@msf
>> Mean regression assumes ... that each year is completely independent and random.
>> ... mean regression predicts that if this year was good, next year will, more likely than not, be less good.
? - meaning there is no inertia t…
A big problem for M&P is that it used to be seriously sales-restricted by state. Presumably they did not really want smartass Easterners (self-styled) discovering the Upper Midwest, a la PHC.
Separate discussions --- whether the feel of the Midwest starts a few miles east of the Ohio border, and what if anything accounts for M&P performance deltas, such as they are.
Of course start points matter. From beginning of 1980 MAPOX underpe…
Reading comprehension, again, speaking of remedial coursework:
>> Anyone who's driven cross-country, or is from the (vast) Midwest, or knows any American history, knows that Pittsburg indeed starts things off, not ending till the Rockies.
A…
Gosh, I don't know. Does the following go your case's way, since it includes bonds?
From 1961 inception to 1/1/2000, MAPOX beats DODBX in $10k growth by $59k, $446k+ to $387k+. 15% cumulative, maybe not a lot for almost 40y, but not nothing.
So re…
>> the odds are stacked pretty high against funds in smaller regions.
Right, I imagine most would agree that M&P has trounced the odds decade after decade.
