Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
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davidrmoran
I myself see a big pullback coming in the next six months but I don’t know that I have ever been correct over 45 years. I will put a lot of money in if a 10% pullback comes. I expect you r being prudent depending on how old you are. The thing is, if you’re young, you might as well stick it out and not try to time. He said.
Fascinating that you cite that 5yo Kiplinger piece!
Goldberg too should talk to Buffett. He remarks Heebner's volatility but then trips in the dust by noting CGMFX actually did not do as badly in the downtown as he would have thought. Say what? I m…
I cannot imagine why you would condescendingly assume that I (or Buffet) or anyone else here does not well understand geometric return (CAGR). This is why $10k growth is graphed.
I don't know if I have had a successful investing career; hard to sa…
Of course the reason I asked is that you wrote
>> The less volatile investment yields the better cumulative return
and if this 'betterness' were in fact true (see Buffet) everyone could be in balanced funds and call it a day. Is that how yo…
>> Given that [cash] buffer, I can be more aggressive with the rest of the portfolio.
Yeah, this really cannot be said enough:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/when-it-comes-to-stock-vs-cash-follow-buffetts-lead-2015-04-08
Why ever own bond…
@MJG,
Jeez, so easy to check what actually happened and how it all went:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ARPANET
Not a debate, not in anyone's mind. Everyone acknowledges by now the team, the players, the protocols, the state of art by stages, and t…
The longer proper-name acronyms (meaning pronounceable) have a long and honorable history of going initial-cap only (optionally). Cf. Nasdaq, Unicef, Nascar among many others. This minor language issue aside, you never need wag your finger about suc…
As a technical editor I was just interested in getting my terms and understanding right, or less wrong, investing aside. Independent events appear to correlate all the time, so it's the parsing of that over time that I wish to understand. wikip has …
@msf
>> Mean regression assumes ... that each year is completely independent and random.
>> ... mean regression predicts that if this year was good, next year will, more likely than not, be less good.
? - meaning there is no inertia t…
A big problem for M&P is that it used to be seriously sales-restricted by state. Presumably they did not really want smartass Easterners (self-styled) discovering the Upper Midwest, a la PHC.
Separate discussions --- whether the feel of the Midwest starts a few miles east of the Ohio border, and what if anything accounts for M&P performance deltas, such as they are.
Of course start points matter. From beginning of 1980 MAPOX underpe…
Reading comprehension, again, speaking of remedial coursework:
>> Anyone who's driven cross-country, or is from the (vast) Midwest, or knows any American history, knows that Pittsburg indeed starts things off, not ending till the Rockies.
A…
Gosh, I don't know. Does the following go your case's way, since it includes bonds?
From 1961 inception to 1/1/2000, MAPOX beats DODBX in $10k growth by $59k, $446k+ to $387k+. 15% cumulative, maybe not a lot for almost 40y, but not nothing.
So re…
>> the odds are stacked pretty high against funds in smaller regions.
Right, I imagine most would agree that M&P has trounced the odds decade after decade.
no, it's crap:
https://azizonomics.com/2013/06/01/the-trouble-with-shadowstats/
or just google
shadowstats bullshit
and read the next several hits
also
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/07/19/always-inflation-somewhere/
Whatever you "us…
Ted is mistaken (again), about geography this time, where close counts for sure.
Anyone who's driven cross-country, or is from the (vast) Midwest, or knows any American history, knows that Pittsburg indeed starts things off, not ending till the Roc…
@DanHardy
>> A chart comparing an investment starting in 1980, for example, should have an inflation component to it to reflect the decline in purchasing power.
Not quite following the point. Inflation "applies" to all investments. What $10…
Look back at the last 5y of, say, DVY or TWEIX and check both the size and the number of the "corrections."
You can wait a long unprofitable time waiting for a supposedly better moment to invest.
Yes, if feasible do push back SS start date; indeed, any CFP or CPA or similar would almost certainly tell you to live on this $250k instead. If you can push it back to age 70, all the better. The cashflow difference is very large.
That said, I wou…
I myself believe that this is majorly misunderstanding what mutual funds are for and do, which is an over-time function, but whatever.
Can you not get and/or infer what you need looking at performance vs indexes and competitors for the short terms…
@VF
>> Monthly, Weekly if possible.
>> We have to make decisions in the present. Someone will always come along and tell me 3 years after I sell what an idiot I am. Can't make decisions in hindsight and foresight. Important for me to …
Vanguard dedicated advisers do this also, or at least past 95, depending on the answers to some interview questions of course; I was a little surprised when my sister told me that.
At 79 does it not all depend on her cash and any other liquid assets, her SS, and her cashflow needs? (Of course there will be no indexes unless he is fee-only.) Not yet clearly seeing swindle, criminal, jail, disbarment, but if you say so.
That's correct.
Rexx:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/rexx/financials?ltr=1
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/072815/oil-companies-near-bankruptcy.asp --- says REXX to fall; this was over a year ago. Still. So I could lose $3500 more.
…
haha, maybe; I do play a little bit trading ups and downs, rich-friends' tips and such, biotech and oil and a REIT or two, also CLF, also Acacia, and had a good string of years until starting a couple of years ago, and since then probably have cough…
