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davidrmoran
I myself see a big pullback coming in the next six months but I don’t know that I have ever been correct over 45 years. I will put a lot of money in if a 10% pullback comes. I expect you r being prudent depending on how old you are. The thing is, if you’re young, you might as well stick it out and not try to time. He said.
What charts? Growth of $10k, M*, looking at curve smoothness over time.
Do it yourself.
Takes into account splits, of course.
I set start point as inception of SHW, hence the year.
Log scale does its own smoothing as a function of increase, sort …
Ain't hindsight something.
As for stabler, B is smoother since 1972, sort of, as are PG and JNJ. With a log scale (M*) it's less easy to detect smoothness and the opposite, of course.
SHW has had this remarkable rise the last six years, so there …
Yeah, shoulda made clear I invest in these (and in everything else) for investment growth, never income stream. I would be chary about OUSA too, but you gotta start somewhere. I was the same about DSENX back when I first read about it here.
I bought it near its inception and turned $5k into >10x that before I bailed, which made me realize the intersection of skill and luck investing streaks entail, also the wisdom of holding and having conviction.
Do some dd on JABAX, GLRBX (less equity), OAKBX (about the same recently), MAPOX, selected Vanguards people like, ICMBX, FPURX, even AOR, and decide.
Be aware this may be a classic bailing too soon and not sticking longterm.
Fascinating. I just graphed slightly less than 10y performance for SP500, VTI (oddly identical), vs RSP (SP500 equal-weight) and VIG (div), which both outperformed SP500 and VTI, not hugely, by 3%.
VIG had the least dip 08-09, RSP the worst.
Ver…
>> professional recommendations for bond portfolio allocation between Treasury, corporate, HY, emerging market, and other type of bonds, and their duration?
What bond fund managers are for, as Crash suggests. Pimco, Double, Fidelity, D&C…
Don't mean this to sound the way it might, but why did they not save for retirement? I mean, what do they say now by way of retrospective analysis? Because they knew they had this sort of security? Needing to spend on kids etc.?
@wxman123
Sorry, a better question, looking at VGLT's large swings, would've been 'So you time it?'
What happened to it in Jan of last year, meaning a sudden 10% rise, followed by a larger-than-that decline only 5 months later?
I do see a fair deg…
hmm. Not seeing that as much as you are. I know about the Pimco classes, thanks. Just was looking at performance of the various bond funds I mentioned, not seeing clearly how to make a true diversification decision.
>> You wanted to be heavy…
expat,
>> thanks to you, David,
All hail rather Snowball/MFO, responsible for uncovering DSENX, which has had surprisingly little press.
Roger about quant processes and also derivatives (maybe).
wxm, can you elaborate on nondiversificatio…
Thanks so much for this encouraging response; but can you possibly elaborate on implosion hunches, scenarios and circumstances and any other thoughts or variables, if you have anything beyond gut feeling? (not arguing, just curious).
At some wealth…
What do you know? You know the difference b/w affect and effect, among a great many other things.
Was not criticizing the poster this time, just noting that there is always only one response to apocalyptic thinking: We'll see.
Like investing in a…
Since 11/13, DSENX (inception date) and PONDX 50/50, much less 60/40, appear to significantly outperform most if not all of these --- except for PRWCX (which of course is on this major tear) and BRUFX. Combo Martin ratio >5 and UI >2 (short-te…
Entire marketing campaigns (some based on substance) have been built on location --- upper-Midwest knowledge of local companies (Mairs and Powers), etc. Chicago independence ditto, and the same for isolation in SW Ohio (James). Access to the most in…
What confusion and pointlessness.
Is the question seriously being heatedly asked if PPGFR (past performance guarantees etc.)? We know the answer to that: No.
Is it likely that outperforming balanced funds with long records and the same managemen…
@msf,
Sorry, I know its holdings, and do follow them though obvs casually and sporadically. Had not seen prior that AOR is now only 60% domestic, and, hmm, they changed the name, to Core Growth Allocation; so coulda answered my own question.
>&…
Fwiw, I looked back at this 5* gold-rated fund for the last 7+y to see how it has fared against AOR (better, uniformly) and noticed that VBINX has only equaled or very slightly outperformed FBALX over long stretches, moreso and more handily recently…
Here is another something to consider in rebalancing away from equities:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/06/your-money/why-your-portfolio-needs-plenty-of-stocks-whatever-your-age.html
Plus he's a cranky gloom-peddler, all woe and pessimism, all corrupt system and corrupt others, little good happening, yada yada, need a revolution. Right. Kinda like the Repubs in that vibe, things are awful, I will improve them somehow. Right.
And specific location. of course: Nashua NH is not the same experience as Colebrook, Columbus as Springfield, Madison as Eau Claire, Ann Arbor as Flint. Publications regularly post 'best/worst places to retire' listings, but seldom with the granular…
