Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
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davidrmoran
I myself see a big pullback coming in the next six months but I don’t know that I have ever been correct over 45 years. I will put a lot of money in if a 10% pullback comes. I expect you r being prudent depending on how old you are. The thing is, if you’re young, you might as well stick it out and not try to time. He said.
entirely welcome; it is highly useful and granular, and the devo (not young by any means) answers email questions and also writes good helpfiles about the variables
>> Absent COLA adjustments, the real value of waiting would be substantially less,
?
8% annually has appeal in an absolute sense, inflation and CoLA aside, most suggest.
Is there literature on claiming early because of inflation calculat…
>> This idea that SS increases at 8% per year strikes me as fallacious. In "dollars," sure, but not in purchasing power ... the rate at which SS benefits are adjusted for inflation is only a fraction of the rate of inflation actually experienc…
ha, good line, and good to remember
Someone posted recently the decade-plus it took for breakeven from that peak (for gogo tech anyway) ... only (only) 6y+ for SP500.
Completely OT --- can anyone explain why M* gives 4* to FXAIX and 5* to the fain…
ty, but har, I say
Luck of the market plus a little bit of my paying attention and assessing the froth.
(have been misassessing it again and again and again for over a year now of course)
Shiller p/e is meaningless, but I am thinking it will n…
>> I wonder if you took ER/fees into account... how those net results would look vs the index.
Why on earth would you think the comparison did NOT take those into account? Seriously.
http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-retur…
@sma3
My thinking aligns with yours ('ill afford to lose...') and is what caused me to leave the market altogether 1y ago plus a couple other breakeven selling points. (Except for the occasional rally play since.) I have missed out on some hundreds…
lede
Ever since the covid-19 pandemic struck, the Federal Reserve has gotten plenty of kudos for moves that have helped stabilize the economy, kept house prices from tanking and supported the stock market. But those successes have obscured another …
fwiw, I myself thought BO's Nobeling to be silly and a lowering of the prize, and many suspected he thought so as well (there was writing about it), although the notional reason had to do w weapons nonproliferation and Midwest reachout, at the time …
If you change the aspect ratio of the Shiller cape, it may change how we think, to some extent (using family history site as graph placeholder).
Tech bubble is quite clear, otherwise smoothish growth w 08-09 dip and recent sick runup, but how odd …
You meant having to work up till taking SS --- well, sure.
had not understood you meant "waiting till 70 will more than likely have continued
working"
(meaning till then)
as written your phrasing said to me working past 70
Most years, my (private) pension fund likes to boast about how well its investments are doing. And most years, we get a lousy 2% raise.
uh
wtf is lousy about a 2% raise?
stomachturning to read now:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/SB989019667829349012
the author this week calls him a 'financial serial killer'
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/04/bernie-madoffs-success-the-great-villain-of-the-financial-crisis…
So how is this different from the recent past of (s)low inflation? What does 'the rise will still be stuck to their lives'? mean (not an economist). There will always be some inflation; you do not at all want none, I read, right?
@JonGaltIII
I worry about a 1970's style period of inflation. ...
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/blog/2021/04/12/pandemic-prices-assessing-inflation-in-the-months-and-years-ahead/
FD1000 can write 10 words and I can make a fortune.
Sounds like you 2 should get your own (chat) room.
Sounds like you can't face reality. If you are interested in making money while achieving great risk-adjusted performance pay attention.
Nobo…
If you want to learn how to debate, then read msf.
If you want to learn how to trade, then read FD1000.
msf can write 10,000 words and I can't make a penny from them.
FD1000 can write 10 words and I can make a fortune.
you mean HE can make (alway…
