Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
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davidrmoran
I myself see a big pullback coming in the next six months but I don’t know that I have ever been correct over 45 years. I will put a lot of money in if a 10% pullback comes. I expect you r being prudent depending on how old you are. The thing is, if you’re young, you might as well stick it out and not try to time. He said.
k
>> varies by how hot the hand is.
Right. So the wolfram 'extreme event is likely to be followed by less-extreme one' is both accurate and not very specifically useful. While 'unitlessness' makes for learning problems (me).
You read 53…
@msf
>> it seems that the magnitude of the "randomness" of next year's return depends on this year's return,
is this not typically the case when speaking of a recent regression?
I guess it is a point worth exploring, where point is the cr…
haha, so seemingly true
See the bean machine and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean
Tougher than the Wolfram explan :)
and this:
The notion of random motion in a potential well is elemental in the physical sciences and bey…
It was I who initially misemphasized / misfocused on require, but yes, regardless, something is unrevealed here, surely, and while I am not as strict as many about anecdote posting, this is so wack that one must be careful not to directly and blindl…
?
Always look both ways crossing the street, or reading articles. Always wear a seatbelt. Draw your sword only when you intend to use it. Yes, first sentence is stupid.
Pardon my not staying informed, but how does a 17yo "require" an individual plan? Does it mean she's parentless and living w/ grandparent on Medicare, or guardian?
It will be interesting to see the details on trumpcare premiums over the next months, where and for whom.
@Press, I was sorry to read about that high deductible but am really v sorry about the med required, christ, and hope your investments catch …
@DS,
k, point taken, I guess.
I did not read Rice Delman so episodically and implicatively and glossily as you, but maybe that's because for years I have been hearing him whinge on about the long term.
>> From 2000-2010, the market's net r…
@OJ, nah, all those rightwingnuts w power and means and opportunity are appalled at this pathetic, clever guy. The Kochs and most of the others. Now, you sure would be right to say they are not by any means overlooking such a golden opportunity to l…
Not physical shortcomings and not only spoiled upbringing. Lots of us have those things, and more. The modeled efficacy of brutality coupled with helpless rage and perverse rewards / disincentives, plus innate temperament of course, those are speci…
Oh, as always, it goes deeper and simpler, to his parents and early experience of ruthlessness, what it means to show authentic feeling, and what happened when you did; what that modeling was, what the maternal experience was, all bundled w excess …
even worse, it is helping as an expanded gov program
bwahaha, who woulda thought?
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/26/us/politics/republicans-trump-affordable-care-act-obamacare.html
note the tagline
More, and the last two paragraphs are priceles…
@LB1,
regardless, we for sure do not want a 'pure democracy' without compulsory voting, and maybe not ever. You have read enough civics text to know that, I bet.
>> down 30% then up 50% gives you (a) an ulcer, (b) vertigo, and (c) a net gain of 5% over the complete cycle
Hmm, not sure his way of looking at it is not more useful, maybe even more accurate. Yo-yoing while walking up a hill seems to captu…
Right
But as the wapo piece and so many others make clear, it is overwhelmingly reactionary resentment at condescension (real or perceived, doesn't matter) and the like.
An awful lot of it is racial fear mixed in; this is fully demonstrated.
R…
@LB, be sure to study this Venezuala-born writer's WaPo analysis today on knowing who the enemy is and what to do about it:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2017/12/26/to-beat-president-trump-you-have-to-learn-to-think-like-his…
More seriously, as DVDrehle put it in WaPo:
... the "story is about erasing divisions and distinctions and borders and walls. A Jewish baby is born in Palestine in abject poverty and hailed as a king. An unwed teenager becomes the ideal mother, and…
? the article makes it pretty clear what happened and how it happened --- the bureau suspended the contract. Private donors may step in for completion, says the tagline.
Some large-scale deliberate manure from that SD rep:
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/the-real-story-behind-kristi-noems-death-tax-ordeal_us_5a3c1874e4b06d1621b2fe00
I am bullish for the upcoming year, but have just sold a patch of DSENX (post-runup) in a Roth just to be able to think clearly about cash needs (dau wedding) next fall and possible dip buying prior (CAPE vs NOBL vs QUAL vs DGRO).
Also about $200k
what most of us really care about wrt taxes
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/you-own-this-tax-bill-republicans-good-luck/2017/12/21/924bba6e-e692-11e7-ab50-621fe0588340_story.html
Ayup. Check out this accountants' analysis and conclusions:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/21/opinion/republican-tax-bill-trump-corker.html
Note the chained CPI and expensing consequences, and IBT digging
Sick of 'winners' winning more, and easi…
@MikeM
>> Would have to see if the diversification would still be there.
The AO_ family holds these etfs in four markedly different proportions:
ishares core total usd bond market
ishares core s&p 500 etf
ishares core msci int devel e…
