Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
@AndyJ. If you think that a debt ceiling crisis is the equivalent of republican inspired violence and chaos,,,, if you think a republican attempt to repudiate a fair and closely examined election is the equivalent to a debt ceiling crisis then tha…
@larryB, instability like the debt ceiling crisis of 2011 (and again in 2013)? The Wiki article on the 2011 version characterizes the effect on markets this way:
The crisis sparked the most volatile week for financial markets since the 2008 crisis,…
Yes, I think that Krugman is probably right on. The folks at the Fed aren't morons either- I'm pretty sure that between all of them they won't do anything totally stupid.
Right, they know exactly what's going on. That last "high for longer" message …
Update on what I've posted before at least a couple of times: current inflation is way down from the peak (actually heard someone on CBS Face the Nation this morning say this, as Krugman has been saying for a while): it fell off a cliff in mid-summe…
I almost left WaPo behind, but thought better of it when I was reminded of Ms. Petri's brilliance. It's hard enough these days to get any humor at all out of the news.
Meanwhile, also from WaPo, more good news on another front: "Renewables to overtake coal as world’s top energy source by 2025, IEA says." Excerpt:
The world is set to add as much renewable energy in the next five years as it did in the past two dec…
Thanks for the summary, @Observant. That episode is the first time I've ever heard Smilin' Ed not be bullish, and that data-dense presentation was enlightening and convincing.
The talk about the policy lag of Fed tightening's impact on the economy…
This may be WaPo's resident satirist Alexandra Petri's best column ever: "Bad News! Nothing about Kyrsten Sinema will change." For those who can't pull it up, she refers to KS in the first 'graf as "the human version of an eviction notice written in…
J. Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz (who used to stand in for JF some, and is plenty good herself) are on other Bloom shows now, so maybe we're seeing Katie G. take over RY. I think she's ok, but sometimes she presses a little hard on things she seems to n…
The Georgia result made her dispensable, and now she can be all mavericky and won't have to run in a D primary. Also AZ D's will have to factor into the '24 election that challenging her would lead to a three-way campaign that would likely lead to a…
@sma3 "Texas at least, can claim their economic interests are at stake, although with the huge wind and solar arrays there, they will probably do pretty well with renewable energy. "
Are you implying Texas has huge solar & wind projects at thi…
Well, that was an interesting one. Are we past peak rate volatility? Yes. Will the 2y Treasury hit 5%? Two no, one yes. Are we past peak inflation? Three yes.
Getting into longer duration IG seemed to be the most agreed-upon good move, and B. Am. M…
Also keep in mind annual charitable contributions & gifts to family & friends.
+1. Consider also (if you haven't yet) a Qualified Charitable Distribution from an IRA, which reduces the amount taxable from an RMD. It's a good deal for those o…
The Seven Year War precipitated a change in the world balance of power that eventually paved the way for the United States to emerge. It was a hell of a lot more than the "French and Indian War".
F&I as it's commonly called in N. America, Seven …
Maybe a couple of the Secret Service guys involved in deleting phone records of Jan 6 can get concurrent sentences and serve 'em out with the Dumpster.
That's an all-time favorite of mine *. I own a grand total of five DVDs or sets, and it's one of them. BBC did a series of it way back, 1971, as a Masterpiece Theater that was good for the time, but the D.D. Lewis film is terrific. Like so many movi…
Is there good reasons to go longer duration treasury beyond 52 weeks, in light of the current yield curve?
Good question, @Sven: getting the best yield even if shorter term, vs. maybe locking in a decent yield, if not the highest, for longer, vs. …
Yes, thanks to Yogi and everybody for making this such a great place to hang out and exchange thoughts and ideas, facts and articles, and even a few laughs.
and duh
https://slate.com/business/2022/11/turkey-prices-thanksgiving-inflation-farm-bureau-debunked-wrong.html
And Eyewitless News reports it breathlessly.
A key passage from PK's piece David linked:
I show rates of rent growth over a three-month period, a practice many economists have converged on in recent discussions: Monthly data are too noisy, but annual growth rates lag too far behind a rapidly …
"The 2% target is not realistic today."
My guess is final range of 3-4.5%. That would allow Fed nice range of "dry powder" to decrease rates if necessary to offset future financial problems. What the Fed says and what it really thinks may be two sl…
Ha, @Crash! You beat me to it, even with my time zone advantage.
A few notes: Good back & forth on HY: Spreads are surprisingly narrow now (in the 400s bp): is the market getting ahead of the situation or just pricing in a cushy-soft landing? D…
It may be a good idea politically, but the time to get a team organized and rolling will probably introduce a significant delay in the process. The Georgia state case will be way, way ahead of the federal case and likely a better chance at achieving…
I read somewhere that a ballot measure passed by the voters earlier created the non-partisan redistricting commission that de-gerrymandered the state, and that had a lot to do with the two-house sweep. Got some smart voters there.
Nov. 11 edition here.
All three guests think the peak yield this year for the 10y Treasury is already in, and agree with the consensus of a 50 bp Fed rate rise in December. Some talk of scaling back expectations a bit for the presumed Fed's termina…
