Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
If you go by the chart of the Fed members' expectations/judgments, most of the increases will likely be done by the end of the year ... at ~ 4.4%.
Not that they're always right on the money, to put it charitably. There's a lot of water yet to run …
The NAV of his flagship fund is still getting pounded, and I don't see how that turns around until most of the Fed rate raises are in the books or sufficiently telegraphed.
Submitted purchase for 26-week T-Bills (3.811% indicative yield) at tomorrow's auction.
Good choice on the 26 week Ts. Right now my plan's to buy the 26 wk next week, after another bill matures.
The county election official (Tina Peters) arrested as part of a voting equipment tampering scheme is in Boebert's Western CO district. (The Pillow Moron named Peters an election patriot, and she had a speaking role, when he had his "conference" to …
Back to Crash's original question in the thread title: I watched most of JG's webcast today, and he was asked in the question queue what he meant. The answer was kind of muddled, but he's basically in the D. Rosenberg camp that the Fed's liable to o…
The other contention - that the "IRA" is significantly inflationary - is kind of interesting to consider, given that it's $350 billion over ten years, compared to say the defense budget, which extrapolates from the current appropriation to about $8 …
Treasury yields are flying, with 2-yr at 3.73%, https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US2Y
When the 2y tops 4%, they're going to be pretty attractive. But for new issues, there aren't any 2y auctions on the schedule, for now at least.
Another piece of the puzzle, at least in 2021, last time I held any shares in it, was that a chunk of the distribution was ROC. At one point in the last quarter, the ROC for the year was 50% of the total distribution. The actual income was pitiful.
Good one, @Old_Joe. The corgis had a brief star turn in that 2012 James Bond skit for the Olympics opening (clever editing making it look like she parachuted out of a helicopter with Daniel Craig.)
Really like the last 'graf in that Guardian artic…
Doesn't seem like there's much of a case for that fund right now: distribution yield is right at 2%, with capital risk and bonds still under pressure, when you can get that or more in a money market fund (e.g., FZDXX at 2.21%) or T-bill held to matu…
You’re more optimist than I am. Hope you’re right that PBS might be able to alter some folks’ perception's.
Thanks for replying.
Thanks for checking back in. I'm not as optimistic as maybe that sounds. After the insanity of letting climate chaos …
Nothing is going to turn the "neo-Nazi scumbags," and nobody thinks they watch PBS. It's no use bemoaning the fact they don't hear anything but far right propaganda.
There are Main Street-type conservatives and, probably more important, politicall…
@Old_Joe & @Crash: + 1. Frontline is so good at building a full, cohesive, well supported narrative of whatever they investigate. And that opening sequence of the losing candidates' concessions going back halfway to forever, followed by Dump's B…
Note the parallels to Bush v. Gore: (1) The crap about needing to protect Dump's "reputation" and the "unfair to Bush" rationale for stopping the vote count in 2000; (2) Both: It's not to be taken as a precedent for anything! (Especially for the oth…
There's an excellent longform Frontline (PBS) that first aired last night: "Lies, Politics, and Democracy" about the rise of Trump and the neo-fascists. As they usually do, the Frontline folks put together the story we've seen in bits and pieces ove…
Good D.R. interview, same basic stance as in the WealthTrack show. I didn't quite realize, as he mentioned, how extreme the swing between the low and the bear rally high in equities was.
If he's right about a Fed slowdown/pause after September, an…
Maybe the Palin effect is about to ramp up on Dump. The just-completed election to fill the AK House vacancy showed that a chunk of Republican voters are sick to death of her BS.
It's very exciting for all those who tried for decades to unseat Don Young. Here's the Anch Daily News story. It's the first ranked choice/instant runoff election since AK voters approved the change.
Former Alaskan here. Ms. Peltola is relatively w…
If one buy and hold treasuries until maturity, they will get decent yields.
Last I looked a few days ago, the most recent auctions had 26 week T bills yielding a bit more than 3% (annual). Not bad for a relatively short $ tieup.
With respect to anything "Google", just remember that everything that you say or do will be available forever to anyone that Google can make money from.
+1, @Old_Joe. I'm still happy with DuckDuckGo as a search engine, which I learned about from you…
And so, Auntie Janet Yellen is throwing money at the IRS. Will it do any good?
It's the Congress giving the IRS a shot of the $ they've lost from GOP obstruction, and yes, it will improve things, and yes, it will be good to see more audits bring in…
@Old_Joe: +1. Former IRS commish Koskinen (2013-17) warned us what the GOP cuts were doing to the agency at the time, and came back on a few interviews recently to hammer home the same message and describe what the new funding will do to improve the…
Good choice, Yogi. Amended returns seem to be low priority and being weirdly administered; I got a corrected 1099 from Fido of the ROC variety that made a difference in my refund in my favor, filed the X pretty much immediately in April, and it fina…
No question in my mind that lithium (LAC, in my case) may be supplanted by a more environmentally friendly product.
Here's one, for utility-scale storage, based on iron-flow technology, that will also be much cheaper than lithium.
@MikeM, thanks for the note. Right, there are battery options being researched, and hopefully some will be better options than lithium.
We do have a major lithium source in the U.S., apparently under development -- the Salton Sea in S. Cal., one of…
Someone on MFO brought up LIT (lithium and battery tech) a while back. I have it on watch but own only ICLN and TAN now.
Then there's a whole slew of other etf's that are somewhat in the ballpark but with their own specialty themes, not only renewa…
@Hank: Ha, your last sentence reminds me of a ditty the 10th grade English teacher repeated over and over about "the river of literature": "The scum rises to the top (in the short term, or words to that effect), but by the time it reaches the ocean,…
Hoo boy. I didn't realize D's also agreed to new offshore O&G leasing in the Gulf o' Mex and Alaska. From the WaPo article:
Democrats agreed to mandate new oil and gas leasing in the Gulf of Mexico and off the coast of Alaska, while party leade…
Hmmmmmm...... Through thick and thicker for all these years, Robert Horrocks remains. Is something he's doing driving everyone away?
Good question. He is still the CIO.
