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This "trend" may persist. />
Yes, it sure may. My choice now, though, is not to put new money in. The big traders have already made a ton on that trade, and as far as it's run, the upside from here may be limited. Some of the commodities I watch…
Hi @Mona, nope, haven't posted on Armchair. I'm just doing my own investment thing and spending a lot of time helping get a startup nonprofit off the ground. You must be enjoying the junk & semi-junk muni ride; that and securitized credit have b…
Best to keep in mind how today's inflation number is calculated - year over year - and what was happening a year ago.
Hank's right about the usual inflation-related investments having already been bid up, starting months ago. In the case of the an…
Good posts, @dtconroe. That's my investing style too. Loving the hy munis right now, and the Semper (and others') bounceback has been great. All the best -- Former M* McMontana.
Vanguard has a good deal on availability of Pimco's cheapest institutional shares (I as opposed to I-3). That was the only semi-regret I had when I moved out of Vanguard several years back.
Good info, Fred. Haven't really followed it, and it's an eye opener how tightly the allocation is tied, within tight bands, to the S&P. Time for me to take a closer look.
One etf, which unfortunately, I don't recall, I purchased at Schwab after Fidelity said the limited volume made the etf an illiquid investment. The trading volume was around 2k shares. After that experience, I try to limit my etf purchases to those …
David, your MFO plan sounds so, so, well, sustainable! Best of fortune for your next chapter(s), and toward your continued involvement here, which would be great.
Oh, and your ESG fund roundup in this month's issue is outstanding. It's a keeper. Ma…
Taiwan is still in the business, and that may be at least part of the reason the Taiwan equity etf, EWT, is shooting out the lights while broader Asia funds aren't.
@Old Joe, did you look at the graph in the article? I think you're right, in the sense that energy is a lot more volatile than food and is most responsible for CPI swings. Just googling around a bit for that info, it does look like food at least sin…
Food and energy are excluded from core inflation because they're so volatile, up AND down. YOY comps would yoyo all over the place if they were included. (You wouldn't want the Fed trying to make monetary policy based on shorter-term swings.)
Core…
Agree with Hank about JG overall. I always listen to his January "Just Markets" webcast and usually a couple of others over the course of a year. The value to me is the run-through of the data he follows closely and possible conclusions drawn from t…
As a retired and somewhat conservative investor, I am also "mixing and matching to have a consistent performance over time" by using the following funds in my portfolio which M* classifies as "Low" or "Below Average" risk:
ARBIX, NVHAX, VWINX, JHQ…
Indeed, if I could go back in my investing history and pick "just one" PRBLX would likely be the one.
That's what I told a friend last week (but without the "likely") who wanted a suggestion to replace a whole bunch of tiny individual U.S. equity …
@finder: I can't imagine the returns from debt of all kinds will repeat the last decade, much less 40y, but equities are kind of in the same boat, as being historically rich.
Plus, there's a big galaxy of debt investments besides Treasuries, a lot…
Oh okay, got it. M* may get the message when some of the big boys start flipping OEFs to ETFs. Who knows, they may not have a policy at all on it, and deleting GAINX could have been a snap decision by someone way down the food chain.
The 10 year treasury yield moved up 1.73% yesterday.
Also, the intraday high hit 1.765, which punched slightly above the previous peak of 1.754 on March 18. Could be noise, or could be another round of pushing up the trading range getting going.
My take: We don't appear to be in sell off mode, instead the market is rotating. Industrials are leading when 6 months ago they we laggards.
Agreed. See VIG vs. IUSG. That fine dividend etf is surging ahead of the growth index after lagging for so …
Just wondering if it’s time to pick up some investment grade intermediates .... My guess is that it’s probably too early. But closer to 2% (10yT) I’d be willing to move a bit in.
That's where tracking trading ranges can come in handy. When the 10y y…
@Mark: Some of the straight utes with renewables have for sure been less volatile than the renewable equity etf's. I sold ICLN when it changed direction, and boy did it plummet. So rather than catch the falling knife there, I've started looking for …
Why not AY?
If you follow it, @Mark, is Atlantica's greater volatility from the Africa and South America exposure generally? Currencies?
I wonder if it could be sort of a proxy for an EM allocation.
@FD1000: "I know a bond fund that is up several % year to date + partially doing short + have a nice 3 years returns."
I wonder if it's the one I own that's up a shade over 6% ytd, with negative duration.
Right, munis have done considerably better than taxable rate-sensitive fare lately. I'm in OPTAX and two Nuveen muni cef's, plus what PTIAX has, and have noticed that MUB is doing about as well as most investment-grade open-end muni funds.
If the …
@Crash, I think it's just more credit exposure, but of roughly the same sorts of credit as PTIAX. Even in PTIAX, they've broken out into a more multisector strategy than their old simple barbell of munis and non-agency mortgages.
I've held PTIAX f…
@Crash: Thanks for the reminder. I do want to track it and get a feel for what they're doing with it.
From the fund overview, it's not all junk: it's showing 60% investment grade, with 23% in munis (taxable and tax-exempt), and the rest of the hol…
I've used QRSVX in the past, and bought some again a few months ago. Didn't really shop around very much, just saw an old favorite doing pretty well, still lower risk, and went for it.
Here's a light-hearted remark to follow Hank's. Hussman's HSGFX lost less Friday than TMSRX, and per M*'s Port Mgr, leads TMSRX on 1 week, 1 month, year-to-date, 3 month, and 1 year returns. You have to look back to 3y among the usual metrics to fin…
Yep, TMSRX sure looks good. Value, especially small cap, and some foreign did ok today in equities, but looks like just about the last bastion in debt - structured credit - may be stalling out and be on its way down.
This is the third time just rec…
