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I'm with @MikeM; intermediate munis are so low-yielding, I wouldn't be interested. If you were playing yield plus capital gain, maybe, but the latter's not something I'd count on from where we are now.
If you don't want to jump up to long-duration…
Loved this exchange from the Ritholtz article:
Michael Dell was recently owned in Davos by MIT professor Erik Brynjolfsson when he mused about where in the world – ever – such high marginal tax rates had ever worked:
“No, I am not supportive o…
Numero uno thought: The chicken's way (my way a lot of the time in equity) to go in EM stock is EEMV, the iShares minimum volatility etf.
Numero dos: for investors who own multisector and/or global credit funds, there's likely a chunk of EM debt i…
Sic semper tyrannis! The "tyranny of talk-radio shows hosts" (just-retired TN Republican Sen Bob Corker's phrase) goes down in flames ... for the moment.
I was surprised too, but then I don't keep up with, at best, more than a couple of individual companies at any one time. With GE, though, I'm under the impression that their renewables (division? subsidiary? whatever it is) is pretty well positioned…
Wonder why he hasn't noticed (or read or heard, since it's not exactly a secret) that U.S. equity's on the verge of hitting possibly strong resistance ~ 2650 or so on the S&P. If prices breach that level, he'd have a better case.
"Resistance" g…
Wonder why he hasn't noticed (or read or heard, since it's not exactly a secret) that U.S. equity's on the verge of hitting possibly strong resistance ~ 2650 or so on the S&P. If prices breach that level, he'd have a better case.
It's always interesting to see what tiny tidbits reporters writing these mini-articles about a JG webcast pick out to highlight. Many of them are at least somewhat misleading, and leave out important details that may contradict the reporter's points…
Nova is just great, @hank.
The New Horizons spacecraft: Early this morning, New Horizons reached one of its key observational objectives -- Ultima Thule, "an object in the Kuiper Belt that is approximately 20 miles wide and 4 billion miles away ...…
T/A is quite subjective.
Exactly. There's no magic formula for making a rational, knowable outcome out of trading by millions of entities with objectives that are all over the place. That's why I don't see value in getting too far out in the weeds w…
This board occasionally features posters making precise pronouncements about the level of the S&P (or pick your index/indicator) at some point in the future, with exactly zero rationale. Why would anyone take seriously any assertion with no reas…
For December so far, Asia as a whole, tho registering losses too, seems to be beating the U.S. by a fairly decent margin. My Asia ref points are multi-country Matthews, so YMMV, but they're down 2-5% while the half-dozen U.S. funds on my watchlists …
Another thing I have noticed are those who have pensions in retirement see things through an entirely different lens than those of us without a pension.
Exactly.
After all China has "The Great Wall of China." Seems we need a wall as well.
If Skeet is implying that this administration belongs somewhere in the 14th to 17th centuries, I agree wholeheartedly.
As nasty as this selloff has been, I'm waiting for support that holds and an uptick over a target (e.g., 20d ma at minimum) before re-entering Pimco CEFs. Falling knives can be dangerous. (The formerly huge premia must be responsible for the differe…
>> Hard to believe Powell came out of the same candidate universe as Zinke, Pruitt, and DeVos.
cuz he didn't, not at all
Meaning of course, that he was on the lists of the Trumpsters like the Deplorable 3 were, not that he's equivalent to the…
The simplest explanation of what the Fed (not just Powell) is doing is adhering to their mandate as best they can. I don't know how anybody can listen to Powell's news conference and come to any other conclusion. The "market" can guess all it wants;…
That's the first time I've heard them express fundamental disagreement over much of anything. The interview's pretty good for hearing both points of view.
Yeah, when I think of UCB, what immediately comes to mind are all those commies in the world-class departments/schools/colleges of architecture, English, engineering (civil, chemical, electrical, mechanical), physics, astronomy, business, finance, s…
Maybe a way to turn this thread into something worthwhile would be to share whose outlooks we find useful. Here goes, from my POV, pretty much the only ones I pay any attention to:
* Hyman and McLennan, annual U.S. and global outlook interviews wit…
Saved; thanks, Bee, that's a thorough piece. For those who're still able to use Schedule A, there's also a link within the article to a good, thorough page on the changes effective in tax year 2018.
He's got a webcast coming up on the 11th. Like all of his 'casts, it's ostensibly about one of the Dbline oef's, DBLTX in this case, but he always spends most of the time on macro, econ indicators, and the direction of different debt classes. Since …
Thanks for the reply, David. Sometimes it takes a fair bit of perseverance to figure out fund and manager history and the other important details, and I appreciate the time you must put in doing that research for the benefit of all of us here.
Bes…
Just doing a little research on the RiverPark CMBS fund David profiled under "Your 2019 funds watchlist," and the fund history seems a little sketchy, or maybe just poorly reported/covered by the usual online suspects.
The fund's own fact sheet sho…
One recent development is encouraging: at least something approaching the 'normal' negative price correlation between safer rate-sensitive debt and equities is back, as is the positive correlation between risky credit and equities. (No telling how s…
Good article. Pitches for annuity sales events, along with those for hearing aids and car/home/health insurance, plus the seasonal specialty -- partisan screed election mailers -- make up the bulk of the paper portion of the recycling I'm taking to …
So essentially similar strategy to GMO which so far has NOT worked. We shall see.
Are you referring to the 7y GMO forecasts? That's not the way they invest in all their products.
On the same page with @rforno here as regards Arnott. I once owned PAAIX, the sister fund to PAUIX minus the forever-S&P short, but neither of them were in any meaningful way "tactical," as the category implies. Both have been long EM assets of …
Fidelity lets you designate one of their safer MM funds as your "core position," which is the position $ from buys and sells is deducted from and added to -- fundamentally equivalent to a sweep, I guess, but no transfers after transactions required …
M* doesn't differentiate between core and core-plus, a clear and imho necessary distinction among rate-sensitive intermediate funds. I doubt Eric J. could accurately say that the fund has "historically produced more risk than most peers" if M* ackn…
