Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
The generally low IG muni yields with my lower marginal tax rate is why for several years, my only muni investments have been in high yield, and only when they're good buys with a fresh spot of momentum. (And after a good run slows/stops, it's good-…
Maybe Lynn's article "this month" means September, coming up on Friday? Looking forward to it ...
The Columbia piece: It seems to be industry standard, given that they're trying to sell something, but the maximum tax-equivalent yield of a muni is m…
We'll be damned lucky to get even a CR, given what the Republican Party has become.
True dat. It will prob'ly take something like the debt ceiling resolution in the House, with enough Rs and Ds voting for it, and McCarthy willing to even bring it up…
@Anna
Hook 'em Horns!!!
I graduated UT in 73, then left Texas after being born and raised there
I don't recognize the place now! Austin is a nightmare
Pretty much the same story here; graduated 1971, took off for the West afterwards. I look back …
We aren't going to get any of that with the current Congress. Not. Even. Close. Holding the line, which is what a CR does unless it's loaded with poison pills, etc., is a pretty good outcome for now. Then there's an election.
A CR would be terrific. There have been years (only in recent times, of course) when that was the only budget action of the year for many domestic programs. This budget debacle includes a new list of demands from the House crazies.
He had an earlier column with the same theme, and nothing's happened since that would change the math and logic of it. It's just not far enough from 2% to zero for a recession response, and there was never a solid rationale for 2% in the first place.
Finally, with short term T-bills currently yielding more than CDs of similar maturity, with their state tax exemption, and with their ease of selling (whether of necessity or by a trader), I agree that for savers and traders alike this is an easy ca…
T-Bills are currently very compelling.
Owning longer duration government bonds may be more profitable in the not-too-distant future.
Agreed. 2y and 3y notes are getting more interesting, especially assuming rates will peak in 2024.
After many bad experiences with Vanguard from top to bottom, I left a dozen years ago for Fidelity and have not regretted the choice once.
Literally or figuratively a dozen years ago? The reason for the question is that around 14 years ago (2009) …
Ben: "My experience with (with Vanguard Brokerage) was different."
Maybe that's where the problem is: the brokerage you've been with. After many bad experiences with Vanguard from top to bottom, I left a dozen years ago for Fidelity and have not re…
538.org regularly publishes polling averages along with individual polls, as they've done reliably for years. Here's the current R prez primary poll page.
The death toll is awful. It's more now than the entire loss of life in the Great Fire (Big Burn) of 1910 (N. Idaho & W. Montana, 3 million acres) that destroyed seven small towns and severely burned another half-dozen.
"The Brady organization argued that their (the legislators in the story) fiduciary duty to the N.R.A. conflicted with their government roles." Change the word "government" to "nonprofit organization," and those actions would be a clear conflict of i…
Yep, happy days are here again may be the theme song looking ahead for the bond universe if the inflation + rate hike story is really fading as the numbers show now. Which is the story Pimco was telling in their last outlook.
For me, Dan Ivascyn is the most crucial for me to understand bonds and what to do. For many years, Dan Ivascyn has been saying the same thing which is "I can still find opportunities in MBS that I like".
Same here. Dan and Richard Clarida, back at P…
Marketplace Morning Report (David Brancaccio et al.) is a quick take in the, yes, fairly early morning, which I like too. It's on my not-so-wealthy NPR station (as well as the website) so may be pretty widespread on public radio.
Jinxes aside, I seriously doubt that two brief observations will lead to a run on a fund like SEMPX, with its lousy downmarket record and a CEF-like yield that would make investors with any sense of risk aversion think twice. Then multiply those fac…
Then I will just note that SEMMX/SEMPX is having an excellent year in the nontraditional category--focusing on junk mortgages. I know this fund scares investors because of its recent downmarket performance, but it sure seems to be doing well this …
@dt, @larryB, et al.: I'm in Treasury bills and not CDs, but the decision-making structure is about the same. For now I've passed on the fairly tempting 2y T and haven't replaced bills with bills, but instead have been stuffing maturing T's into a 4…
Good response by Former Mayor Pete, not letting him get away with blaming the FAA instead of 'fessing up to United's greed and incompetence. Which in my modest experience with them, has been the M.O. there long term.
Here's the 6/30 Real Yield -- a divergence in views about the direction of intermediate/long Treasuries and how big a deal the apparent rolling over of several econ measures is.
@Crash, looks like that was the 6/23 program you posted last. (It was…
That's a particularly good RY; all four guests were right out there with their opinions on how to play the current situation, no on the one hand this, on the other that, kind of talk.
Continuing focus on the short end of the T market, a little ext…
and a better measure, super corehttps://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/16/opinion/core-inflation-statistics.html
Excellent column. Last graf is incisive, and "fossil statistic" is a keeper of a concept.
... news organizations should stop playing up estima…
There are 2 categories, FR-inv-grade (Treasury FRNs, others), FR/BL-junk.
Exactly my point. Seems some may have assumed the Wealthfront figure applies to FR/BL junk, and it doesn't.
BTW, the volatility table per category is deceiving. We have learned since 2020 that volatility is unpredictable in market meltdowns. Sometimes the indexes which trade during the day show more volatility.
I had a look at the text explanation of thos…
Junkster: "Yet one of the few pure plays on commercial real estate in the open end bond universe is doing just fine YTD and far outperforming cash."
Yep, allocation and security selection matters. Pimco's outlook webcast yesterday cited a mixed bag…
There is now an etf for the anti-esg. It's called ORFN.
It opened in May 2022, and closure/liquidation was announced last Friday due to "inability to attract sufficient investment assets."
Will we be in another decade where a good manager, deploying a multi-sector bond approach, provides equity like returns from a collection of bonds... with a lot less volatility?
That sounds like their contention, for five years anyway. (And another …
Thanks for the info. Will catch up with the article that follows later.
There is an article on it out now, but seems to be mostly a summary. The slide deck is the meat of it, must not be on the site yet. The Aftershock Economy.
