Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Reply to @Crash: M* World Allocation Fund definition:
"World Allocation: World-allocation portfolios seek to provide both capital appreciation and income by investing in three major areas: stocks, bonds, and cash. While these portfolios do explore …
Reply to @cman: The thing is, when you look at the data, it's fairly straightforward what the parameters and assumptions are. No one should assume what a single word like "overbought" or "oversold" means without looking at the data and the context. …
That's the short term view. Here's their lookback at the pullbacks in the past year, for more perspective, with comparisons of oversold levels going back that far. There's a lot more context in this data set, which they also update from time to time…
I'm thinking this market shift is kind of reassuring, in that the 'traditional' correlations (at least the ones I keep up with) seem to be back in play: stocks down, taxable high yield down but not as much, interest rate-sensitive bonds up.
Right …
Another possibility is that M E-E may simply not be a good manager. Kicking managerial people who don't work out upstairs to a specialist, advisory role is a very common personnel move in situations like that.
So the contention is that there are two kinds of passive investing: cap-weighted and other. I think it's more useful to think of passive investing as consisting of a dozen or more different varieties, one of which is cap-weighting. This cap-weightin…
Blackrock and Allianz also have global allocation funds.
There's also a very interesting, actively managed etf of etfs, GAL, in that space. Last I looked the share volume was a little low for my taste, but if I had an allocation fund portfolio lik…
I don't know, Catch. The EM consumer trade became kind of fad-ish there for a while, so I think there's been a momentum + valuation component to the rise and fall of ECON. I don't think it'd be useful to try to draw any economic conclusions from it,…
Reply to @davfor: davfor, I'm considering GPROX too, along with a couple of other G. Peak and Wasatch funds. What tilted you toward GPROX -- was it the broad portfolio and inclusion of all of the names they consider good ideas, or something else? Th…
Reply to @Mona: Hey Mona,
#1, a little, but fund flows have turned, equities aren't cheap, core bonds (at least short term) seem to be returning to more normal correlations, and pressure if the 'recovery' continues may be as much at the short end …
* Beefed up VEUSX for more lg cap Europe.
* Put in 2nd half of a position in long-short PMHIX; it's now my largest stock holding.
* Bought half a position in BBB muni fund VWALX.
* Moved $ from SFGIX (a lot) and MAPIX (a little) to a new position i…
That's been the M.O. at this house since ~ 1980. Here's the IRS rule on underpayment (when a penalty may kick in):
"Generally, most taxpayers will avoid this penalty if they owe less than $1,000 in tax after subtracting their withholdings and credi…
Thanks for the link, JC. I didn't even know Matthews did webcasts.
From the MAPIX/MACSX owner's perspective, this may be an interesting inflection point happening now -- MAPIX fading a bit, MACSX picking up -- Indonesia is back to gains after the …
Reply to @PRESSmUP: First, as David pointed out earlier, the star ratings are quantitative, not based on opinion. (The medal ratings are opinion.) Second, the drill at M* is to change a fund's category if the holdings vary from their definition of t…
Reply to @EMinvestor: Guess I wasn't too clear; I didn't intend my comment to be about volatility, only that a growthy, high-P/E fund is not the same thing as a value-leaning, income-oriented, lower-P/E fund -- therefore the "asset allocation" comme…
Reply to @MarkM: Agree. Seems like more of an asset allocation move than a fund switch to go from SFGIX to WESNX. Not that it's a bad move on momentum grounds, just an observation.
It's ranked as low risk long-term, so I'd consider giving it a pass for not keeping up with the bull run since '09. The overall return:risk of Average: Low is probably the best way to think of it. Although I don't own it, I like that kind of stock f…
Reply to @Hrux: Heather, technically a P2P post should probably be under 'off topic,' although I'd point out that your critic doesn't pay a bit of attention to that distinction, so he has no room to talk. And he has no standing whatsoever to tell yo…
Another, shorter-term consideration: SFGIX has about 1/3 of assets and MACSX about 1/2 in some of the most (short-term, based on 50d ma) oversold markets worldwide, per Bespoke Investment --- SE Asia, Taiwan, & S. Korea. They can always keep goi…
Reply to @Ted: Merry Christmas to you too, Ted. If you have a problem with reading articles before you post, and relaying what's relevant and important about them in the post, I'd be interested to know what exactly is the problem.
I think MFO could probably accommodate posting articles without creating a separate section if everyone who uses the site would agree to post only articles we've read fully and that we think have specific value to readers, and to state in the post w…
Swede: " I believe the folks over at GMO had a few sips ...."
The difference is that while GMO has let cash build somewhat in their funds, they've stayed mostly invested.
I agree with Investor - remember reading at one point that Europe in particular trades at a discount to U.S. most of the time (sorry, no reference). If that's correct, to figure out what level of bargain ex-U.S. might be at any point, you'd need to …
For a pretty good framing/summary of the Fed's considerations at this point, see here. Binya Applebaum, for those not familiar with him, is one of the best financial/econ reporters out there, imho: excellent ability to translate financial-ese and bu…
Reply to @Vert: Good point, comparing to ICMAX. To put numbers on it, ICMAX = 58% cash, +10.5% YTD; ARIVX = 65% cash, +6.0% YTD.
I had a minimum position in Aston based on EC's earlier record at Intrepid, but bailed in January when I noticed that …
David: "Since then, the long Treasury funds have lost more than 12% and long corporate are down nearly 6%."
Fortunately, those are not the only bond options. I'd argue that, for more or less conservative investors, short to intermediate corporate d…
Reply to @Derf: The poster who refers to "the crooked actively managed firms" must have had a rotten experience somewhere along the way, and/or got an A+ on the Bogleheads entrance exam.
I'll be mildly interested to see how the V equity group runs …
Reply to @mohan: Mohan, just quickly on the first question, I didn't write down what DS said last night about the range (yeah, there were a lot of numbers flying around at that point), but as of 10-31, the overlap was 15.6%.
Reply to @David_Snowball: Yep, David is very engaged in his livelihood; that's a gift that keeps on giving, hopefully to shareholders too.
I also enjoyed the interplay between our hosts.
Moved some $ out of MAINX into GBOAX.lw, plan to pick up a chunk of PMHIX after the cap gain distribution, and added NCOAX.lw with some former PIMIX $ that'd been sitting around for a while. The continuing theme is moving assets toward the middle of…
Thanks, David, the call was very informative. I had to miss the first 15 minutes so didn't want to ask something that'd already been covered, but the Q&A period covered what I wanted to hear -- good questions, all.
