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Bwahaha, Dex's belief in the 10-yr T @ 1%, the dweam that will never die. :)
Mmmmmm...forgetting things...Donepezil
Not in Art's league but,
Gundlach says benchmark 10-year Treasury yield could fall to 1 percent
http://www.reuters.com/article/201…
Dex, STHBX a dog of a dog. In the same short term junk arena it is completely outclassed by ASHDX and OSTIX.
I was going to suggest a combination of OSTIX and WHIYX.
ASHDX has a short history from what I have researched.
STHBX is for 'near ca…
Edit: You are lucky to have a pension. Shouldn't you be just fine once you begin taking SS? You may still have a little out of pocket but not much. I assume that will come from your nest egg?
I'm looking at taking SS at 63.5. That would give m…
I've taken the liberty to reformat Dex's budget data, above, to hopefully make it a bit easier to visualize:
There is one anomaly: the $327.39 in the automotive section doesn't square with the total for that section.
Car 327.39 (?) That's th…
@Dex got me thinking about what he called "near cash". I interpret this "near cash" as the portion of my portfolio that is available to supplement yearly income and the occasional emergency. @Dex mentioned this amount should help bridge a four year…
Hi Guys,
I completely overlooked this useful rule of thumb and the Trinity study that produced it in my earlier postings on this topic. Sorry for this obvious omission. I hope Dex finds this useful as he wrestles with his retirement planning. Mu…
The analysis is a simple money flow balance usually done on an annual basis. To oversimplify, portfolio value at the beginning of the year plus annual incomes plus/minus portfolio returns minus total expenditures equates to an end balance. It is …
You asked and didn't like my analyses outcomes. I didn't give you the confirmation encouragement that you were seeking. I certainly am not trying to dissuade you from your decision. I'm simply reporting the results of very few calculations.
I…
Hi Dex,
For your convenience, I’ll repeat them here. I did 12 simulations in about 5 minutes with a $13K drawdown schedule. I did 6 cases for a 185K initial portfolio value. My baseline was a 7% average annual return with parametric standard dev…
@Mike- hello there, and thanks for your comments. You are absolutely right on. Murphy is alive and well, and will outlive all of us. I used 5%, with excellent results.
I use 5% also.
If you want to complicate things further compute and project…
I've very much enjoyed this thread and the previous thread on social security. Being 61 years old myself and contemplating retirement, I think about all these comments daily.
You post is an example of why I do not think early retirement or even a …
@Dex, Agree on that. Each person develops their own answer. There is not one set figure or style for everyone.
I have a pension that covers 45% of my budget. Then my interest income could cover 100% of my budget.
@Dex, The number that jumped out at me was the 4 years of cash for expenses. Isn't the general consensus calling for 18 months to 2 years? 4 years seems high to me and could be a drag on your portfolio.
That depends upon your comfort level -…
@Dex, The number that jumped out at me was the 4 years of cash for expenses. Isn't the general consensus calling for 18 months to 2 years? 4 years seems high to me and could be a drag on your portfolio.
That depends upon your comfort level - …
"Generally, a bottoms up approach is better i.e. budget, net worth, pension, SS etc."
First, the planning and accumulation of data: I designed a worksheet which divided our expenses into various categories, including those which were optional and…
I surely do not want to rain on your parade, but I did a few exploratory Monte Carlo simulations for a 30-year retirement period to test the robustness of your analysis that included Social Security benefits. Warning red flags went flying.
What…
http://www.getrichslowly.org/blog/2011/08/11/extreme-early-retirement-in-practice-how-two-people-did-it/
In 1991 we had close to $500,000 when we took this leap
http://retireearlylifestyle.com/
Nice work Dex.
Some thoughts. I'd be a little worried about a swoon that lasts longer than 4 years and how it would put pressure on your near cash invested assets. A lost decade? Sound possible?
In the example, I didn't give an asset allocation. …
Hi Dex,
You ask a very open-ended question that is poorly timed if it specifically applies to your situation. From your earlier postings, I recall that you jumped into the retirement stream a few years ago. If so, you are probably an unhappy camp…
Krugman said "Antonio Fatas, commenting on recent work on deleveraging or the lack thereof, emphasizes one of my favorite points:
Here's my favorite point. You and your ilk have taken this thread off course. You easily could have started another …
Just getting ready to walk out the door and go hiking and you start another one. I've always thought you need to be debt free (no mortgage, no rent, etc.) For a single retiree over age 65, $2,000,000 should do the trick and $3,000,000 for a couple.…
Here's SSA's life expectancy table At age 62, a male is expected to live to just short of 82 years of age, on average. Females to age 84.6.
Msf - another good way at looking at the question.
I think as time goes on the number of people who …
"3 out of 4 retirees receiving reduced Social Security benefits"
I think, as others have said, for most retirees they need the SS$ to live. For the rest of us it is about how to maximize our investments.
As I said in this thread, I'm now thinkin…
http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/nn/articles/When-Should-You-Take-Social-Security
The amounts are so much higher when you wait, seems like a no-brainer if you can swing it from other resources and are unlikely to die soon.
Check out Junkster's p…
I too contributed to the basic discussion in its earlier life. It was worthwhile to do so. But these exchanges have a limited shelve life. I merely suggested that this thread had reached its shelve life expiration date. Everyone is free to dis…
My general feeling is that as a group, we are overthinking and overreacting to the SS question.
You probably shouldn't think about it at all. They will probably will move the goal posts on you, means test or similar.
But, I am getting close to …
I'd say move to Georgia, but we don't want you northerners here.
The roads here are like silk. You could easily fall asleep at the wheel they are so smooth.
@Dex - thanks for being diligent and forthright with the numbers. ACA often does cost some people more money (though not as much as they may think, because health care/insurance rates were rising so fast anyway that part of the increase was inevit…
So, it looks like I may be wrong about next year's OC cost.
I may be able to get plans at $240/month with the subsidy.
this is because my income is 345% of the poverty line, over 400% and you don't get one.
you are eligible for an estimated subs…
