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FYI,
Dex: the low on rates on the 10 year are not in yet.
Dex
"He also forecast the dollar would continue to rise, even as he described the strong-dollar trade as crowded."
If the $ gets stronger, I would think the 10 year would also get stronger.
An old quote - "The market teaches you to lose."
It may not be a 'crash' this time. It may begin as a steep decline and then a slow decline over years. Then there have been periods of trading ranges.
Amazing interest rates on 10 year Gov't bonds around the world!
USA 2.21%
Germany .8%
The FED was surprised when it went below 2.6%
It signals an economic slowdown to me.
I'll say it again. I think we all will be surprised how low and long this i…
I also listened to the whole thing. Yes, very nice guy, won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2013 along with 2 others.
B. Obama won a Nobel Prize ... just sayin'
I listened to the whole thing. Sounds like a nice guy. But, like many stock market 'talkers' he leaves a lot to the listeners interpretation and leaves himself 'outs'.
Basically, he said the stock market valuation is high, not as high as 2000, an…
Cashin has only been on the floor of the NYSE for something like 50+ years.
And no one has helped him off the floor yet!
"Help, I've fallen and can't get up"
Still no wage growth as skilled-worker shortage complaints rise
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/capitolreport/2014/09/29/still-no-wage-growth-as-skilled-worker-shortage-complaints-rise/
This is another piece of the puzzle for me and that inflation wil…
I'll call BS. I do not see rates at 3.75 by end of 2017.
I agree with this.
Lets say they start raising in June 2015. That would mean 2.5 years to run it up to 3.75. The economy would have to be doing very well for that to happen.
having to deal with bid/ask spreads which can be wide in something as thinly traded as HYMB. In the mini selloff in junk munis in early July, HYD sold off over 4% early that month (closing highs to intraday lows) while HYMB sold of over 3%.
@J…
FYI
While muni bond issuing is drying up this could impact them.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/09/high-quality-liquid-assets-and-munis/
http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/145804/Municipal-Bonds-to-Lose-LiquidAsset-Status-2-Banks-to-Avoid
It is old media Vs new media.
If you look at the demographics - older people watch cable news. Young people get their news (if they care) from cell phones/net.
This guy says the ten year will be in a range from 2.2 to 2.8
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/09/09/jeffrey-gundlach-gives-market-calls-and-outlook/
With the ETF you can put in a limit price. Take a look at the intraday for VTI.
https://www.google.com/search?q=VTI&rlz=1C1AVSA_enUS454US460&oq=VTI&aqs=chrome..69i57&sourceid=chrome&es_sm=122&ie=UTF-8
It has a 60 cent swin…
@hank,
These days there are bubbles all around. I don't think the deflation issue will become an issue for stocks until people start at least talking about it. Then it would have to be factored into stock prices. Look at Japan and Europe - it ha…
@Dex, @heezsafe: What effect do you think the end of QE in October will have?
And the expected raising of the Fed Funds rate at some point in 2015, sounds like you must doubt that?
@Junkster
A couple of point.
1 - QE has been winding down for awhil…
Dex, if the 10 year goes to 1% before 3% send my your address and I will send you a check for $500. In no way, shape or form do I see that occurring but would be thrilled and the $500 would be a small pittance to what I would make on such a move.
@…
Yes and no - the same charts could be presented for newspapers, other cable news and even cable TV viewership in general.
People get their news and entertainment from other sources.
@junkster
The article doesn't say why he thinks it is over.
I agree more with Jeff Gundlach who thinks it will go lower.
I think the 10 year treasury could go to 1% before it goes over 3%. Take a look at today's employment info - tepid hiring get…
You all should read up on the baby hospitals in NYC and in Guam where women fly in from China or Korea, have a baby, get the baby a US birth certificate/US citizenship/SSN and leave - so they have options.
I don't think there is a general answer. You have to look at specific age groups.
It has been shown that the first half of baby boomers 1947-55 have done much better financially then the second half and those who came after.
It is the first half …
@ted
Do you subscribe to DShort?
You might like it.
http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/Wim-Grommen-140817-Crash-0f-1929.php?WT.rss_f=dshortRSS&WT.rss_ev=a&WT.rss_a=Market_Crash_1929_Mystery_Unraveled?
It may be possible but you have to add in a lot of other information not provided by the article.
What is the definition of an average investor?
It is over 20 years - was there a draw down of the investors' money, add money or what?
FYI - HYD red…
Personally I think people should be more thick-skinned--we are all adults, .
I see this on other boards. If a person doesn't post in what some consider an acceptable style they get flack.
If a poster disagrees with beloved people or ideas, they ge…
“Brevity is the soul of wit.”
― William Shakespeare, Hamlet
I'm from NYC and good pizza used to be all over.
Then they started to use imitation cheese - that yellow stuff.
They cut back on the olive oil and the cooking times - you get that beige p…
