Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
"Grantham's observation that stocks have been overpriced about 80% of the time over the past 25 years. " 25 years is a long time to wait for mean reversion. Maybe he needs to adjust his estimates of fair value.
Thanks so much for this encouraging response; but can you possibly elaborate on implosion hunches, scenarios and circumstances and any other thoughts or variables, if you have anything beyond gut feeling? (not arguing, just curious).
At some wealth…
Stockman's been calling for another Great Depression, starting now, for at least five years and quite possibly closer to twenty. He was never level-headed. He's the guy who brought magic asterisks to the federal budget back in the 80s...
Interesting read. I doubt anyone can predict the month-by-month trend in the oil price roller coaster as this article attempts, but it's as well-reasoned a guess as I've come across for a while: a brief uptick now, a return to further weakness and a…
Volatile fund, but great long term record. After 2008 it bounced back, up 37% in 2009. Not for the faint of heart, but if Dan Fuss weren't 82 years old, I'd be looking at buying it now.
I remember reading some opinion pieces Smead posted (on Seeking Alpha, I think) soon after he opened the fund in 2008, and he made what at the time was a bold call: commodities were a poor investment and the U.S. consumer was going to bounce back. H…
FWIW, I sold FAIRX last year before the big cap gains distribution, but added to FAAFX. But I guess that doesn't answer the general question of whether or not to stay with BB. I'm giving him a couple more years, mostly because I think the bull marke…
I swapped FAIRX into FAAFX to avoid the capital gains distribution last year while staying with Berkowitz. I'll give him a couple more years, but if he doesn't recover, I think I'm abandoning active management altogether. If you take a fund which do…
@dryflower thanks for posting this. This distribution is crazy. FAIRX was supposed to be tax-efficient, at least that's what M* said when I bought it 9 years ago. And it was, for a while. What the hell?
I did notice recently that it's performance i…
I'm in the same boat. Again, this is one of those funds that had so much going for it -- long term outperformance, manager with major skin in the game, small asset base, great investor-friendly stewardship, below average fees -- that its failure bas…
The anti-Berkowitz case is very clear. The pro-case is: great record in the past; huge personal stake in his funds (he owns over a third of FAAFX); high conviction; not an index hugger.
If I could do it again, I wouldn't have invested with him, bu…
As Bogle suggested recently, look at the dollars they're taking in, not just the percentage. 2% of $25 million means they're getting paid about $500,000 a year to run a global microcap fund, covering tiny obscure faraway companies. Sounds like a bar…
@David was kind enough to email me and take a look at the Ned Davis report I'd referred to... and indeed, though Mr. Davis's firm is bullish short-term (and very cautious for all terms on emerging markets) his longer-term stock market outlook is per…
Looking again at Ned Davis, looks like he's bullish for the next 6 months or so, then has "valuation concerns." Anyway, who knows. Is that comment above from "Leigh" from Ned Davis?
Hi David,
Thanks so much for taking the time to respond. I'm not saying Ned Davis has a cristal ball or that he's better Leuthold or GMO, but he is a respected name. I get access to their reports via Schwab. Let me see if I can send it to you via p…
David, Love the commentary as always, super appreciate your time and wisdom, but I wonder if, in the future, when you speculate on the overall market, you might want to cite a few reputable sources (Ned Davis, for one) who think we're actually in a …
@Edmond Thanks for this. The insight of someone who actually knows these companies is a rarity, and much appreciated. @David_Snowball, perhaps you could bring up Verso when you talk to Mr. Sherman?
Thanks for posting, @clamui. It's good the manager is honest about his mistakes, but it is disappointing. I think your takeaways are wise. I've still got my retired mother in RSIVX, but it is only one of three bond funds I have her in for income.
R…
@Scott +1.
My two cents' worth: the market isn't cheap, and this bull market is closer to its end than its start, but interest rates are likely to stay historically low (even if they go up a little) and a recession isn't in sight. So I'd say it's a…
Oh, don't get so dramatic. The SPR was always pretty useless and now that we're producting most of our own petroleum it is entirely useless. It was also never used, even when oil rose to heights it may not see again in our lifetimes. This was just p…
You guys are a tough audience. According to M*, RSIVX is a whopping 1.6% behind its benchmark over the last year. Any fund with a 6% yield is going to have some volatility.
I remember in David's original write up that the manager's promise was to d…
Hi @LLJB,
Many thanks for your thoughts. I have pretty much decided on the swap, but it's nice to see someone else has come to the same conclusion. With my luck, the day after I sell it HUSIX is going to surge... but I feel it's the right thing.
May…
I had the same thought. It also hasn't dropped as much on bad days for these issues. I wonder if he's moving into energy / commodities, as he was starting to do with Imperial Metals.
Hi @Bee, I've got a ton of respect for your POV, but here's how I see this fund: experienced manager team, with great track record in similar strategies, opening a new, fund whose size will be very limited, in the precise area (foreign small cap) wh…
@little5bee Yes, AIP is available on their other hard-closed funds too, but you may had to set it up already. Here's the language from the web site on GPIOX: †Closed to all investors, except existing investors with an established automatic investmen…
I got my allocation at about 2 in the morning.
Looks like the close isn't 100% hard: you can set up an Automatic Investment Plan and add $500 / month to a maximum of $6000 / year.
I generally don't do AIP, since I work freelance and earn my money …
I suspect that huge, highly liquid and extremely cheap ETFs like most of Vanguard's or even some of Schwab's proprietary ones (say, SCHD) do not suffer from disadvantages 1,2, 4, and 5 listed above.
Indeed, if you compare the ETF and OEM versions o…
Great commentary (October), as always. Ed's general idea, that an ideal portfolio might be a mix of index funds for large caps, actively-managed funds for small cap and espcially foreign small cap, and cash for ballast is one that's growing on me.
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I assumed that the advisor code was to permit paid advisors who hold their clients' money at brokerages like Schwab to buy shares on behalf of their clients -- and that if you're not an advisor or an advisor's client, you have to invest directly wit…
PIMIX / PONDX is doing very well so far this year. Their good picks are clearly compensating for the bad ones. The Petrobras bet hasn't worked out in the short term, but it still might within the next few years. They got bonds paying almost 9% from …
Nice to see a concrete, testable prediction, especially on that hardest of all concepts, market timing. We will soon see if they're right. I doubt it, but I'm not a pro and I don't claim to be able to time the markets.
The chart on M* makes it a poster boy for "mean reversion": http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=NTHEX®ion=usa&culture=en_US
Though, knowing junkster's investment style a bit, I think the moral here is "get…
