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Thanks all for an interesting discussion -- themes that have been on my mind too. My main bond holding has been SUBFX -- an uncontrained bond fund well-prepared for rising interest rates that have yet to come. In retrospect that wasn't a great choic…
@Valueseeker I've been thinking along these lines too: "When management changes, through style drift or manager turnover, we are faced with bad choices: sell and incur tax costs or stay put and hope for the best. To me that is the most frustrating t…
What Vintage Freak said. There were plenty of signs for years now that BB's funds are risky -- if you weren't up for risk and holding on for the long term, you should never have invested with him.
Anyone planning to add to FAIRX or FAAFX? Charles, perhaps? I don't have all that much dry powder, so I want to wait to see if it falls more first, though I suspect tomorrow we'll see at least a little rebound, the famed dead cat bounce if nothing e…
If FAIRX and/or FAAFX really do drop 5% or more, this might be time to add to them. I remember similar volatility in both, FAAFX especially, over MBIA. That ended up not a homerun, since Bruce sold too early, but profitable nonetheless.
I wonder if this is a bullish sign (they see tons of opportunities so want to raise more money) or a bearish one (they don't see great investment opportunities so they want to make their money off management fees) or if I'm just overthinking this.
What do you guys think of TEI (Hasenstab's CEF) as opposed to DBLEX for a buy, hold, and forget about it EM debt fund? It's got terrible momentum but a great long-term record and is trading at an usually large discount for it (-7.5% vs. 3 year avg o…
Thanks, Skeet and Hank, I think I've got a handle on Fuss's thoughts now! The difference between long and short term rates is the key, I believe. I figured the confusion wasn't his, but the journalist's and mine.
Fuss seemed to contradict himself in this article -- and I suspect that's the fault of the journalist who must have misunderstood him. He says in one graph that he's selling long bonds because he's afraid of rates going up, then says in the next tha…
Thanks for your thoughts, everyone.
@msf, I guess that makes sense about PDI, but I'm not sure it makes me feel better -- it gives the manager an extra motive to lever up, though he's got a ton his own money in the fund that I presume he believes …
Another term for an overvalued market that keeps on getting more overvalued is "a bull market." 6% above fair value, if that is indeed FV, is not enough, in itself, to bring a bull to a halt.
That said, some other event (recession, geopolitical cri…
For a bit of peace, quiet, and beauty--not what Wall Street is famous for, I know--check out Trinity Church, corner of Wall Street and Broadway, the oldest church in NYC. It's quite beautiful and Alexander Hamilton is buried there.
I think you're wise, Old Skeet. I think I'm going to raise my cash stake a little.
On the other hand, acecdotally at least it seems that a lot of people feel as we do -- I don't hear a lot of people saying they're all in -- so probably there's a lo…
@rjb112, you might want to check out BRLIX too, a megacap fund with an index-fund like ER and a couple of tweaks to improve tax efficiency and maybe performance.
@davidrmoran yes, you're probably right, and that was silly of me to call out that particular fund. But my basic thought is that for years we've been in a long-term bull market for bonds due to falling interest rates, so any backtesting for the last…
A lot of bond funds, including PIMIX, have benefitted from falling interest rates. It's hard to believe they'll perform as well going forward. I like both funds, but I wouldn't overweight a bond fund with a four year average maturity right now, unle…
So are you guys adding to these down funds? I am considering adding to my worst fund so far this year (SUBFX, -2.43%) because its fits my preferred formula: good long term record, stable management, and short-term underperformance.
@rjb112, thanks for your thoughts, it's good to hear some confirmation about my choice to move out of LSBRX, given my particular portfolio's needs, despite its excellent performance.
Yeah, I probably should've bought a Treasury fund instead, someth…
What Sven said. Small cap funds, every excellent ones, have underperformed, but considering their previous run-up it's hard to argue that their relatively mild dip is worth buying.
I owned Fuss's LSBRX 2006-2013, I held on and even added to it in 2008, so I did well in the end, but I wanted my bond fund to provide ballast, to go up when my stocks when down so I could take cash from it instead of having to add to it. It's not F…
@heezsafe, thanks for sharing your investments with Doubleline and congrats, they've all done well.
Perhaps this is worth a separate thread, but anyone have any thoughs on DFLEX? It's Gundlach's unconstrained bond fund, which he opened this April.
I'm with VintageFreak. I try to buy a fund with a great long term record and a great manager I respect when it's been in a period of underperformance, so long as I still respect the manager. For me FAIRX, with its mediocre 5 year record and great 15…
Dan Fuss is great, and I held LSBRX 2006 - 2013. Overall I did well, but it was too correlated with the equity markets for what I want in a bond fund. I do think Fuss is great at what he does and is refreshingly honest and open, not just talking his…
Hi Bee,
The Caymans are a tax haven. Pretty much all the debt issued there is not by the local government or local companies (same as most American companies headquartered in Delaware aren't really Delaware companies), so you'd have to dig into the…
Personally I think people should be more thick-skinned--we are all adults, I hope, and anonymous, and here to learn about investing well, not to get our hands held--but if Ted's comments really were causing problems, David's offer to moderate and pe…
". In the US world, only 14% of the actively managed funds outperformed an Index in both excess returns and in reduced risk. Another 21% also generated excess returns above Index returns, but at a higher risk level. So 65% of the active portfolios d…
What Junkster said. Hussman is clearly smart and hardworking and cares about his shareholders, he's just not making them any money. 10 years is a full market cycle. He's been tested.
If you think the market is overvalued, hold cash and high quality…
Yep, Maurice, a great story. I don't have the guts or skills to do it, but momentum-style investing (such as Junkster on this board does with such success) increasingly makes sense to me.
