Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
@LLJB I've got TDVFX too and I like the sign that they're selling stocks that have hit their fair value... But yes, their website is lousy at communication. Then again, it's one of the few funds I've got in a tax-sheltered account, so I can be phil…
@slick Can you share any research you've done on GIBIX? The numbers look fabulous but I'm nervous about any bond fund that doesn't have a track record that goes back to 2008-9, when a whole lot of supposedly well-run funds blew up. Maybe the managem…
@msf Thanks for these careful thoughts and list, very much appreciated. FWIW, right now I look to bonds for ballast, so I'm only in RPHYX and SUBFX. In the past I invested is LSBDX and did okay, but since it was in a taxable account, it felt more se…
In terms of which industries would benefit and lose if this turkey passes, I'm thinking big banks gain, manufacturing loses. Big increase in budget deficit when we're close to full employment should lead to rise in interest rates (good for banks) an…
@ron Private jet companies are a good place to start: http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/360785-senate-tax-bill-includes-tax-break-for-private-jets
I'm still haunted by what happened to many money-market plus / ultra-short bond funds in 2008. By pure luck, I didn't lose anything then (I sold my Schwab ultra-short bond, just before it cratered, because I needed the cash) but these all make me ne…
The sister fund to FTHNX that Lewis linked too, run by the same team, UBVSX is a $6 billion (!) small cap fund. It's done well recently, but underperformed pretty significantly in 2007 & 2008.
@PBKCM If I understand correctly, which I may not, your fund uses technical analysis to decide risk on / risk off, then, as of last year (maybe due to your arrival?), quantitative analysis to choose what to invest in. Held up very well in 2008-2009 …
Trump apparently just announced that he was ruling out the 401K cap without consulting Congress. I'm glad he ruled it out, but if this lack of coordination continues, I think we can pretty much rule out any tax reform getting passed.
And that has i…
I'm bumping up this thread, because there's great info in it, and I'm not the only one looking for cash alternatives right now.
Here's a new question: anyone know cash-alternative funds which have a track record that extends back through the 2008 g…
@davidrmoran Let us know the results of your research. I'm looking to sell some equities & take some risk off the table too. Right now as a cash alternative I've got some money in two conservative bond funds but am looking for other options. Tho…
I don't use this strategy and in general don't try to market time, but even the best strategy won't work every year. I think this strategy has a pretty good long term record, no? But lots of strategies work well... until suddenly they don't.
I think if he appoints Warsh, the markets might finally sell off. Up to now, his main economic appointments have been smart guys with some kind of qualification for their jobs. Warsh would put an end to the "adults are taking care of business, don't…
I keep wondering at what point it's worth raising cash to account for the dangers from growing corruption, weaker regulation, and looming political stability. I know they say not to let politics interfere with investing, but we haven't had politics …
Everyone's hurt, but the red states, which depend on the federal government to run their exchanges and do outreach, the most.
But yeah, I"m doubtful he'll pay the price. His supporters will blame moderate Republicans for blocking his healthcare "p…
And yet, here in New York State, where the average consumer on the marketplace should see a 5% decrease in premiums after credits, the average increase due to CSR uncertainty (the main sabotage, according to Gaba) is only 0.6%: https://www.health.ny…
Yep. This isn't a fund I'm angry at myself for buying a little of, it has done better than money market, but I'm wondering if it's worth taking ANY risk at all for an extra 200 bps, esp in a taxable account.
@Maurice, wow, can't argue with XSLV's performance. I noticed on M* that financial services + real estate are almost 50% of its holdings. Does that bother you? Not criticizing or even commenting, just wondering as I consider moving out of a long-ter…
@MSF great math and great points. Right now I'm mostly making contributions to a tax-deferred solo 401K, rather than prepaying taxes, since I expect in retirement to 1) have less income 2) live in a lower or no tax state (I'm in NY now.) So my indiv…
As a self-employed contractor who maxes out his solo 401K, this change, if it is proposed and passes, would significantly increase my current tax bill.
Now not a lot of people have solo 401Ks like I do, but a lot do max out the 18K employee contri…
I seem to remember that a few years back, this fund was one that a lot of posters on this site loved. Definitely one of those funds with a simple strategy that worked great -- until it didn't.
Expect more of this talk. According to Rasmussen/Fox, which is all he cares about, Trump's approval rating has risen six points since he started threatening nuclear war.
