Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Charles noted:
Our friend Junkster always touted the importance of having predefined "exit" criteria. He was/is a day trader so he watches for instabilities typically in price movements of what he calls "tight channel" funds. If he sees them, he exi…
Hi @davidrmoran
You noted:
since the first week of March
My bad. Okay, so; the beginning of the week.....March 2 or the end date of the first week of March. What date ? Will try to get the graph to stick for a short time frame to move data here.
O…
Damn........crystal ball lock down. About the same here, Magic 8 Ball taken to repair shop (needs a special electronic part I can't order, or would repair myself) and now the shop is closed because it is not an essential business under current guide…
@Crash FSUTX 10 year annualized return at 12.2%. Shown at the top of the US News list; although I treat their list as something to review for thoughts, so I can't comment about the ranking.
Why not FSUTX? Hell, with Fido; if it matters, minim…
Hi David, You noted:
Long-Term Treasuries have both returned more in four weeks than they normally would in an entire year.
Chart, SP500, TLT, EDV, ZROZ starting Nov. 4, 2009 (limited by fund inception date) through March 24, 2020.
TLT, EDV, ZROZ…
@Charles , I'll place this again.
A quick look at S&P's bond rating guide:
"AAA" and "AA" (high credit quality) and "A" and "BBB" (medium credit quality) are considered investment grade. Credit ratings for bonds below these designations ("BB,…
Hi jimlenz
You didn't pick a bad fund in normal market conditions, but; for the most part only bond funds with an overweight in AAA gov't. issues have fared "decently". And even the gov't. issues had problems for awhile.
This link is a composition…
Thanks @FD1000 I thought there may be some other data sort at another particular site that Charles views to obtain a different inference. I'm familiar with the M* data.
@Charles, you noted:
How could there not be a robust market for TLT? But there …
Hi @Mark
I look at Fido and M* for numbers, but; I observe the bid/ask to guide me in what is happening at the time. I've obviously missed what Charles is pointing towards.
I can fully understand a price and NAV difference in the past week with LQD…
Hi @Charles
You noted:
Until the Fed stepped-in yesterday, even highly traded ETFs like TLT and LQD had big discounts between price and NAV, signaling liquidity concerns with IG bonds.
Your stating price and NAV, of course; is not the same as BID/AS…
Related, more or less to this investment area....... story link below.
Invesco Mort. Cap. REIT, IVR , Down -43% today. Can not meet margin calls.
Overview indicates a -82% from 52 week high.
Disclosure: we don't have any horses in this area of …
Hi @VintageFreak
A quick look at the portfolio of the fund ( RSIVX ) you mentioned indicate why the recent price drops.
First, a quick look at S&P's bond rating guide:
"AAA" and "AA" (high credit quality) and "A" and "BBB" (medium credit quali…
I posted the below last week, but it was likely not viewed by most. Now that we have arrived at QEE (Quantitative Easing Extreme) .....thank you for your indulgence.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------…
"The Federal Reserve is providing the fuel for this morning's reversal, announcing that it will purchase Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities "in amounts needed," along with plans to buy corporate bonds and municipal securities and a lending p…
Hi @rforno
AAA Treasury issues should prove and provide benefit, IF nothing changes overnight and through Monday; for direct fund holders or positions held in broad bond funds.
Treasury futures look....... the Jun '20 issues
Hi @Crash
VUIAX will pay an even higher yield if the price continues to fall. A simple math function that looks good on the outside; but the higher yield for this fund is from the sacrifice of price return, YTD of -26.31%. A pretty serious sacrifice…
Hi @Derf
@FD1000 said,"As usual, I follow my chart/trends and they come directly from the price which is the end result of the opinions of all traders. "
Something like the Junkster would have said ! Follow the price !
This method "price"; is a ful…
Hi @MikeW
The below chart start point is set in reference to the vote date for the "bail out" program.
SPY large cap, one year, Oct. 14, 2008 - Oct. 15, 2009
So, $100k on Oct. 14, 2008 has a value of $68,500 on March 6, 2009 (-31.5%) and finds a…
I've removed the prior Dumbfounded title; as apparently the Fed. has fixed credit markets for awhile, and/or all of the folks who had to raise cash are about finished with that exercise; and the big selling is done. I'm sure a few of these folks are…
Morning........Friday, March 20, 9am
Overnight and pre-market suggests that AAA bonds are a bit more "normal" in actions relative to the existing equity tensions.
Corporate bonds and junk bonds appear to have some bottom fishing in place.
If these…
If one discovers valid articles related to what would be a TARP or TALF (original programs links at first page above), version II, please let us know. I see @Mark recently posted regarding mutual fund money market funds back stops. Something similar…
I'll reload this one from a post a few days ago. If you find the most current news story is more than 10 minutes old.........look at the top of the news story list and CLICK THE BURNT ORANGE shaded words, "moved here" . You'll have the newest feeds …
Monday, March 16 close numbers; which will be reflected in your bond fund holdings or allocation fund; depending on sector exposure and percent mix.
Gov't. issues, except LQD
--- SHY = (1-3 yr bills) +.16%
--- IEI = (3-7 yr notes) +1.04%
--- IEF …
my friend will retire in 6-6 yr, he lost 27% of porfolio past 4 wks.
This is a paper lose I presume; meaning he did not sell anything for a real lose, yes?
As with @Mark . Tis not possible at this point to provide any guidance.
john,you agree, y…
@msf and @Mark
I will add that the current benchmark, IMHO; is South Korea and their actions and abilities.
And that Taiwan, has been going forward in their thinking since opening their economy to outside investments in the late 1960's with letting…
The following is my own form of comic relief, with a shoulder shrug and side to side head shake; combined with the serious side. I'm reluctant to post, but.....
In the way back days I lived in Taiwan for 2 years. There would be, as there are now; t…
