Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
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rjb112
Well thanks for all your great instruction and telling me about it.
Yes, I'm also not thrilled that he seems to be a Perma Bull. But I'm wondering if he was also a permabull even prior to his Wisdom Tree affiliation. And agreed, I do not consider it appropriate for a university professor to have this affiliation t…
@MJG: appreciate your post. Yes, I try to look at the P/E given and make sure I know if it is a trailing twelve months P/E, a forward P/E [using the projected/estimated earnings going forward], what company came up with the earnings estimates, and…
@MarkM: basically trailing twelve months' P/E versus forward P/E based on earnings estimates. When I posted the forward P/E, it was referring to the latter.
Most unfortunately, M* seems to just report the forward P/E for individual mutual funds. …
The Dogs of the Dow was a very popular investing strategy in the 1990's. There were books and articles written about it, even mutual funds incorporating it. The major full service brokerages had Unit Investment Trusts with the 10 Dogs of the Dow, …
Summary:
1. The overall stock market, the total market, has a forward P/E of roughly 17.3 to 17.4
2. Small cap growth has a forward P/E of roughly 22.5 to 25
3. Small cap overall (value plus growth) has a P/E of roughly 19.6 to 20.4
4. Small …
I have found http://pdfburger.com/ to be a great tool.
I use it to convert PDF files into Word files so I can edit them, highlight, copy and paste, etc. I also use it to convert web pages to a PDF file, which works great. It will also convert file…
I call " bullsh@t" on the claimed forward PE of the Vanguard offering. Small caps are wildly overvalued and will likely lead the next decline. I would never advise initiating or adding to SC exposure here.
@MarkM: Let's make a distinction between s…
@kanmani: You're welcome. Just a note, you probably already know from reading Hulbert that very few newsletters have been able to beat the return of a market index, such as a total market index like VTSMX or VTI. The VAST majority of newsletters …
FWIW, here the newest GMO 7 year forecast has U.S. Quality @ 2.3%, U.S. large cap @ -1.5%, and U.S. Small Cap @ -4.5% annual after inflation.
I'm also dubious of M*'s Vanguard figures because they only update by the quarter. IJS, which is update…
@Ted: Thanks for posting. I often get "locked out" when I try to access WSJ articles. The secret is finding the correct URL that allows access!
@kanmani: I subscribed to Hulbert's Financial Digest for many years, and followed the performance of…
Can you provide a link to the article? ("featured by Hulbert in today's Wall Street Journal"), or a copy and paste of the article.
I think you can learn a lot about the newsletter by studying FundX Upgrader, FUNDX.
The portfolio managers of the fun…
Hard to beat Bruce (BRUFX).
With respect to performance within its category, I agree.
But it's sure not hard to beat BRUFX with respect to their annual and semi-annual fund reports. They tell you almost nothing. Same with the website.
Their perfo…
@expatsp: "But given how aggressive my asset allocation is right now, it's really important that my bond funds not lose money in a downturn. I don't need the upside from that part of my portfolio"
You might want to take a look at FPA New Income FPN…
@MJG: Very nice; thanks.
The forward P/E of the Vanguard Small Cap Value fund is 16.65
For the S&P 500 Index fund, it is 17.01
In terms of predicting the relative future performance, I guess that gives the small cap value index a slight edge. O…
Was trying but failing to be polite, since the shortcomings of GO listings (and this is yet another fine example) have been partly hashed out here recently.
"the shortcomings of GO listings" ?
What does GO stand for?
Well worth the 4 minutes 53 seconds it takes to watch this video. Who would have thought that the Fed engaged in quantitative easing in the past.......
Is it not a rule in the markets, that when a simple way to invest to gain out-sized returns becomes widely known, that advantage is no longer seen in the future?
This is not a rhetorical question.
It is very easy to invest in a small cap value in…
@mrdarcey: thanks for your exceptional post. A treasure trove of excellent resources.
@MJG: thanks for the excellent resources you provided.
Let me contribute a resource that I just uncovered.
I've been wanting to know what John Bogle thinks of …
bee, not sure what you mean by "but they perform in the relative space." Looks like VHCOX is a large cap growth fund per M*, with only 1% of its assets in small cap value. POAGX looks to be a midcap growth fund, and also has only 1% of its assets…
Are we going to repeat history here?
Does anyone remember about 20 years ago when the Dogs of the Dow investing strategy became very popular? Books and articles came out showing that if you just invested in the 10 highest dividend yielding stocks o…
@MJG: thanks very much. I'm going to read the references you linked and hopefully reply again
@prinx: thanks. That Vanguard's modus operandi. They often have an investor share class, with a $3,000 minimum, and relatively higher expenses; an Adm…
@davidrmoran, Morningstar lists WEMMX as a small cap blend, and the portfolio P/E ratio of 20 [19.99] seems to support that it is not a small cap value fund.
In the linked article, Paul Merriman is recommending small cap value, not just small caps …
What do you all think of this?
I've been noticing that registered investment advisors far and wide have been touting small cap value indexes more and more.
My primary index fund is the total stock market index fund. Merriman, Larry Swedroe and a …
Just took a look at the fund's website and the most recent semiannual report and annual report. To put it nicely, let's just say that what the fund lacks in shareholder communications, it makes up for in performance. To put it not so nicely.....wo…
BRUFX performance is in the top one percentile for all time frames from one month thru 15 years, with the exception of the 3-year return, for which it is in the third percentile of performance; all data from M. What an amazing performer.
http://sc…
It would happen later, but yes. This is why I ask your collective advice. It seemed too aggressive, but I was not quite sure what a realistic level of aggression was.
The "realistic level of aggression", as you put it, is entirely dependent on how …
"The investment time span is likely two-five years after which time it would likely be used as part of a down-payment on a house".........."I had a few different thoughts:
1. Just DCA into the index funds over the course of the coming year"
A certi…
Professor Jeremy Siegel [author, Stocks For the Long Run] made an important point with respect to the bear market from October 2007-March 9, 2009, when the US stock market went down 57%. He said something to the effect of, iirc, 'there are only two…
Smead Value (SMVLX) will soon be getting cheaper.............Litman Gregory Masters Alternative Strategies (MASNX) won't. Representatives of the fund seemed surprised that anyone thought they were overpriced. Their contention was that they charge …
I have been waiting for what seems forever to buy SEEDX and GOODX. Still waiting.
I'm also interested in GOODX....have them on a watch list to study the fund.
What are you waiting for, a market correction?
These former Fairholme guys look interestin…
What is "Principia?
http://corporate.morningstar.com/us/asp/subject.aspx?xmlfile=41.xml
Morningstar® Principia®
Flexible investment research and portfolio management software.
Morningstar® Principia® is one of the most widely used resources in …
He's getting himself in more and more hot water as the year progresses. The more he says, the worse it gets. Losing a lot of respect and reputation. He's trying to be way too cool, and people just want him to be a wise bond manager and have excel…
EVBAX - 18.82 % stocks as of 4/29/14 ! Was wondering if other unconstrained are using equity to jump start returns ?
Derf
Interesting that EVBAX has almost 19% in stocks.
Seems unusual…
@rjb112
$439---wow. It wasn't so long ago (or was it?) that I recall a $100/yr rate. I had no idea. I dunno, for what you get--- would "deplorable" be too harsh? (sigh)]
"How much does Premium Membership cost?
We offer a Premium Membership Servi…
Why David, how can you question their sincerity, how can you harbor any doubts of their abject devotion to your financial well-being?
Could it have anything to do with the fact that they charge me $439 for a three year subscription?
