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I have great respect for Vanguard's balanced fund offerings but I am always in search for similars. The majority of your PV replacement portfolio is MWTRX. Unfortunately Tad Rivelle is retiring from managing the portfolio. He was one of my favs. (T…
msf, to answer your question...IMHO risk tolerance is a very personal thing. There should be no right or wrong. My personal belief is each investor should find their maximum pain point and invest in funds with risk tolerance somewhat less than that…
MARMX -13.90% from 11/5/2007 to 3/9/2009
VTINX -18.06%
MARMX -14.86% from 5/19/2008 to 3/9/2009
VTINX -19.96%
MARMX -17.47% from 12/28/2007 to 3/9/2009
VTINX -19.97% from 5/19/2008 to 3/9/2009
MARMX -13.97% from 12/31/2007 to 3/9/20…
More analysis:
MARMX Max Drawdown 2008 -13.90% vs VTINX -17.77%. 10/09/07-3/09/09
MARMX Max Drawdown 2020 -9.54% vs VTINX -12.48%. 2/19/20-3/23/20
Since inception 12/2007 - 9/2021:
MARMX CAGR 5.34% vs VTINX 5.25%. With less equity (according to …
If you read some PM commentary of Wellington's VWINX for example, the buys they are most content with are those growth stocks that have short term news flow problems affecting stock price such that they fall into the value designation. They are not …
Concerning SWR....when presented with problems in life it usually is prudent to allow for a margin of safety. One business cycle normally contains several painful surprises.
Compare whatever you have vs a benchmark (VBIAX or your desired VYM/VCIT allocation). Many times a 10-30 fund portfolio will under perform over 5 year rolling periods. Choose your key metrics. That, in turn, may provide guidance how to think about …
I would recommend reading each quarterly fund commentary from their website going back 1-1.5 years. I remember one of those commentary briefly discusses reducing their risk.
Thru the years I have reached the the point I ignore anything but the basic equity/fixed income ratio when comparing funds. Managers normally stay true to their culture and cultures are reflected in performance and risk metrics. Although I am in th…
Thank you for your excellent work! I wonder if there are a handful of truly exceptional funds that are worth spending the commission $ for? We don't know what we don't know....
PM Romick has a good record in smallish allocation of $ in closed end bond funds in recessions with hefty yields. They have a tendency to rebound quicker than equities if the right vehicle is chosen.
It is interesting to observe balanced funds during this phase in the business cycle. Within the M* 50-70% equity category the risk level an investor assumes can vary widely. It tips the hand of the fund's perception of risk vs reward. M* produces…
The obvious problem being that there are funds that sit on 30% equity historically. Basic only allows a hard filter for either 30-50 or 15-30 screens. An investor searching for 15-30% equity may find a suitable fund sitting on the lowest edge of 3…
Where do you see 59% of portfolio in B and BB bonds?
PMEFX Inception 7/31/20.
As of 9/30/20: 25.7% equity and 74.3% bonds. Of the 74.3% bonds: 22.7% AAA, 6.1% BBB, 27.2% BB, 22.6% B, 3.9% CCC and 17.5% convertibles. Not enough time to see h…
Your work above on CTFAX showed its possible for a F of F's to have 100% TO ratio.
BAMPX had numerous portfolio changes 3/31/2020 to 9/30/2020 (per annual and semi annual) as did CTFAX. Although the bond/equity allocation of BAMPX remained cons…
CTFAX Statement of Additional Information p.102 says under normal conditions the portfolio turnover rate is expected to be below 150%. The past 4 year CTFAX avg has been in the 100% range like BAMPX 98%. CTFAX makes portfolio changes relative to ch…
Much of the turnover in BAMPX appears to be coming from Strategic Income Opps fund (1805%) and to a lesser extent Master Total Return (556%). Total guess....perhaps short term paper purchases?
Does M* calculate fund metrics (for example risk and volatility measures or value and growth measures) themselves or is data provided by a third party?
I am hearing again of late from multiple credible voice of reason sources reminding us something to the effect ... "we must buy fixed income even tho the space stinks". This is not necessarily new news. However, when you reach the tipping point wh…
The most important take away here is to note the date of the change. The proof is in the pudding. The clock resets in my book. Talk is cheap. Past performance does not guarantee future results etc etc etc.
some of the best money managers in my book are those that have the insight to recognize a growth stock enduring a short term set back that has fallen into the top edge of the value spectrum. thereby reclassifying it as a value stock when in fact the…
1. Your first lost is your best lost.
2. Evaluate every strategy not just on a benefit of being right basis, but more importantly on the cost of being wrong basis. Sometimes its not always how much you can make, its how much you don't lose.
3.…
My question is if all mutual funds were to convert to ETF format would that increase or decrease market volatility? Marked to market intraday vs end of day? The distinction being is this upcoming transition going to include actively managed mutual…
A dog with fleas stock.
Fat cat banker.
That stock is a beast.
Pigs get slaughtered.
They have lion's share of the market.
The Wolf of Wall St.
Pony up and hit the ask.
Animal spirits.
Gordon Gekko (Gecko) and Bud Fox.
I think we have finished our work here. If you like Rivelle at TGLMX you might like him more at TSI (at the right time in the busines cycle with the right discount). Great manager. I plan to own it at some point in the future.
