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This worked for me...try logging off....go to the new M* home web site.......log back in from there.....go to discuss in the MORE drop down. (using desktop, not mobile).
Last I checked Wall Street had a 85% probability of a December rate hike which translates into CD rates creeping up slowly through 2/2018 with credit unions offering improving rates slightly ahead of that curve.
Yes, the 12% allocation = 3 years at 4% each year. Perhaps even one year higher dependent on comfort levels.
The main reason I brought up this issue of cost basis is I have a personal belief that market drawdowns will become more severe duri…
msf, did not mean to totally direct the post to you but I will answer you now. Not to get too far down in the weeds....my OP suggests that long term savings rate is important and is within direct control of the investor and secondly, at what price …
More thoughts...If you had no income and had no assets and inherited $1M today tax free..... would you invest it all in the market today at a 4% withdrawal rate (many people are 4-5.5%)? This Bull market is up 3.5 times since 3/9/2009 low. Or for…
For an investor in retirement down 57% and continuing to withdraw for income he won't care whether its called a correction or bear market. The pain is the same. Good luck NOT timing the market. Re: 1% cash...IMHO how much you don't lose is more imp…
How much an investor spends (budget) is under his direct control. This, in turn, affects how much he saves. Market returns are not under his direct control. The cost basis of when he invests in the market is of paramount importance. The last two co…
MJG, I understand the intentions of your OP and thank you for bringing up the subject.
"Returns may not be relevant in the future" would apply to ANY investment philosophy including active managements improvise, adapt and overcome baloney sales p…
Merriman is soon to release a "motif like" all in one fund to replicate his 13 small slice portfolio which allocates among all sectors stocks and bonds domestic and international. His work is based on DFA research. According to him, this portfolio …
Gambling is not a word I want associated with my retirement portfolio.
"Would MFO exists if everyone indexed?"....I wish someone would have forum posted me senseless years ago about the virtues of indexing. It would have made me a lot more money.
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Within the last few years, Vanguard has begun moving towards recommending 4 Fund portfolios by adding international bond and stock allocations.
The Vanguard asset allocator calculator can be found here:
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/tools…
Among Bogleheads the consensus is that Vanguard 3 Fund portfolio described in the article is the most effective overall investing vehicle. The author assumes we understood it. Most Bogleheads suggest using the Vanguard calculator to determine asset…
VBIAX changed their benchmark equity index 2005-06 timeframe. Since then they have outperformed 2 of the 3 listed (all 4 very close however). Survivorship bias is frequently overlooked in these type analysis.
Thanks for the input. Both Scott Burns and Merriman have shown splitting up the 60% equity side into US Large, US small, Reits, International and Emerging Mkts will outperform the CRSP US Total Mkt Index over time (VBIAX equity side of 60/40). My da…
tabs at top of screen to adjust a plethora of scenarios. Website default auto populates to 75/25 allocation. It looks like 50/50 at 3.5% withdrawal rate is bulletproof.
For a good site with many different withdrawal scenarios use:
http://paulmerriman.com/retirement-distributions-2016/
Click Best Advice....then Retirement distributions 2016.
You wonder how the 60/40 balanced approach will perform if this 35 year b…
I am not so much interested how we got there as I am the end result. I am focusing on the law change intent with the belief there is an identified need. The intent of the many numerous changes being made (TD 9783 included) is to encourage particip…
"Is this a great change? IMHO not really, but more of a non-event. Employers are offering annuities now..."
My opinion...I have worked for several Corporations in my career and found with certainty that there is a wide difference in quality …
The PBGC rate for 8/2015 was 1.50%. The PBGC rate for 8/2016 was 0.50%. This resulted in the 8% increase in the lump sum payout in the specific corp plan I reviewed. This particular corporate lump sum was based on a formula using numerous variable…
Yep. Doesn't have to be 1/2. Could be any combination. The more options the better. Many of my friends were forced to take lump sum to pay off debt at retirement even tho their debt was much less than the lump sum. The PBGC rate is at record low…
No you're right. Typo. I meant VGIT 20%. (or a target date fund with bond allocation included which should be around 10-20% at her age). I was in two different conversations at the same time with SSO. The target date fund resolves any rebalance de…
If it were my money at her age, I would wait for the next recession. I would use a global index for 80% and 20% SSO. Another reasonable suggestion would be a target fund using indexes. You need a Roth IMO. Caveat Emptor. Very sorry for your loss a…
Thank you msf. I have access to TIAA-CREF 3.0% SVF but requires a separate Supplemental Retirement Account to be established above and beyond the Retirement Account contributions.
"I stop automatic reinvestment of dividends in taxable accounts". Never understood why people do that. Determining cost basis exercise not worth it to me versus any possible benefit since reinvestment would compound at a minimal rate if in an equi…
At a roundtable years ago CEO's and business leaders were discussing shifting jobs overseas and outsourcing in general. The discussion resulted in a near unanimous opinion this would be a good thing for America. After all, we were going to be a se…
I remember the day that the only way to analyze companies was to requested hard copies of the Q's and K's directly from the company. It was not available anywhere else. I can remember some regional funds doing very well back then probably due to th…
"Nothing about retail prime funds being especially prone to risk"
I believe all MM's carry risk. The possibility of losing .01c means prone to risk in my mind compared to the history of MM's (for the most part) holding the buck in past years…
Ironically the best place to be (for several more months) might be the very place they are claiming is risk prone (Prime). Where Gov't MM's level out at is unknown at present until money flows stabilize. Prime yields are juicy at Vanguard. Switch f…
