Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Some pretty compelling historical data about future stock market performance related to a prez's first 100 days.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-first-100-days-stock-market-0043abbe?mod=hp_SP_A_2_1
Here's a recent M* interview of Christine Benz on the topic.
https://www.morningstar.ca/ca/news/260559/do-market-forecasts-really-matter.aspx
Well on the glass half full side, it kinda disproves one poster's incessant claims that ALL forecasts (exc…
Had started DCAing back in on April 21 at low end of my projected S&P range. Did NOT expect to try to trade my projected top end of the S&P range.
But...after surprising 7%-10% runs up since then in respective Apr 21 OEF BUYs, and hitting …
MW did a decent piece on the ZBT today.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-technical-indicator-predicts-a-higher-stock-market-but-dont-get-too-excited-66cce9d7?mod=home_lead
Excerpt:
Status of other valuation indicators
Note that the ZBT bu…
I think the biggest mistake I'm making today is being in the market.
Right there with ya @Mark. Does feel a bit like standing on the deck of the Titanic.
That might qualify as wishful thinking here! Leonardo still appeared to have happy thought…
Scanning the BSW thread it appears some posters are adding new money to stock allocations. We all have different strategies and goals and the markets showed signs of life last week so I get it.
If you read this thread, the Lib Day and BSW threads,…
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/27/trump-approval-rating-economy-immigration-polls.html
We'll stack this "first" alongside all of TOT's others!
Excerpt: (BOLD added):
A trio of polls out Sunday show that a majority of Americans disapprove of Trump’s…
Pretty impressive 4-day bear market rally based largely on hopes of tariff deals and an oversold condition, despite an increasingly ominous economic outlook.
That said, here's commentary on that S&P 5,500 target level again! See video at ~1:…
Have any of these indicators ever met up with the current idiot in charge?
Stay tuned and keep your finger on the button.
Not an "indicator" per se, but a veteran T/A pulled off this Daily Double of sorts during the buffoon's current term, per my p…
Thanks for the update. Here's the details on that:
https://www.investopedia.com/stocks-trigger-100-percent-accurate-bullish-signal-after-3-day-rally-11722168#:~:text=Stocks on the New York,within a 10-day period.
Excerpt:
Since the 1940s, the S&a…
You gotta commend market participants for trying a coupla times now, but the S&P NOT rising above the 5,500 level appears to help validate the views of many T/A's who believe it will be the upper level of the trading range for the time being. …
Very interesting T/A activity.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-is-looking-oversold-as-earnings-season-gets-underway-e699e2f0?mod=home_invest
S&P: Introduction of a BUY level and a extremely BULLISH level.
Excerpt (BOLD added…
Treasury Sec: We did NOT meet with the Chinese.
Buffoon: We met with the Chinese this morning.
Question: Hmm...So then, which individuals met with the Chinese?
Buffoon: (crickets)
Great read! But...
"...And this time there won’t be a vaccine coming to our rescue. We’re stuck with this chaos agent for three years and three months."
Hmmm...That's wishful thinking. But scoring at home, I got it at three years, nine months!
Forgot to post this earlier. Great stuff from Katie S after the close this Monday.
Critical line in the sand on S&P at 5,126. S&P Closed Monday at 5,128.20.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/04/21/fairleads-katie-stockton-on-the-technicals-…
S&P: We are currently just above the Buffoon BLINK Bounce close but still slightly below the 50% Fibo retracement level. More data to support the likely creation of a trading range. Until we take out both of those ^^^ AND the 61.8% retracemen…
I guess I would disagree with the notion of a "huge rally" yesterday and keep it where it IMO belongs, yet another doomed rally based on "HOPE."
And we all know what beloved Art Cashin (RIP) always said about HOPE as a investment strategy.
Market…
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-strategist-warned-of-a-selloff-in-december-hes-watching-these-two-signals-to-confirm-if-stocks-have-bottomed-b319fdc5?mod=home_lead
Excerpt (BOLD added):
Or confirmation could come through a retest of the mar…
As it turns out, not all T/A are created equal!
One particular T/A from BellCurveTrading has, even in these seemingly blindfolded times, successfully projected and predicted the recent, respective index tops AND the respective index % drawdowns t…
https://www.yahoo.com/news/white-house-insists-still-seal-184028885.html
White House insists it can still seal 75 trade deals in 90 days – but says it’s currently only in talks with 34 countries
And if you believe the 34 number, I got some choice …
Aside: Add a HUGE asterisk to all that given that the vast majority of the market action in the past three months has been self-induced, with wild market swings being caused daily by smoke, mirrors and WAG data.
And that is indeed the catch, isn…
So, there seems to be little interest in T/A here, but for anyone who is interested...
Here's a great historical look by MW at S&P drops in various prior periods, including those that did and did not end in recessions.
https://www.marketwatch.…
Futures pop!
Well, well. What a surprise! (sic) So he’s gonna keep the “major loser” after all.
Apparently somebody informed TOT that he can’t legally fire the Fed Chair, and if he did, he’d need to fire the rest of the regional Feds, and he’d h…
Hi @Old_Joe and @stillers
I always do my best to NOT place any link that is not 'official' or 'real', unless the site is intended for some other purpose (comedy, etc).
AND, yes; the WH covid19 page is very strange.........but to be expected, eh…
As posted on the BSW thread yesterday, we started our DCA process into one of the the hardest hit sectors, tech, as comments about Powell and FEAR gripped the markets.
Today, markets are immediately back to the HOPE phase.
https://www.cnbc.com/20…
Back to the OP discussion...
We have scoped several Foreign and Global LC funds recently and will be starting a new position in one of them today as a companion fund to currently owned BISAX (FS/MV).
The scoping list, in no particular order inclu…
I clicked on the OP link and my first thought when it loaded was I inadvertently loaded a porn sight. It just felt so slimy and greasy, so I closed it immediately.
I trust his disinfectant and powerful light cures were detailed there?
https://www…
@stillers -- OAKMX is FCLV? I thought it was all domestic.
Thanks man, great catch. Yeah, only 3% Foreign.
I've been scoping Foreign funds, especially FLCV for about a week (see above list) and had a brain fart there on my 2nd OAKMX post. My bad.…
Words of wisdom about this from the venerable Ron Insana:
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/21/ron-insana-confidence-in-the-us-will-be-shaken-if-trump-seeks-to-remove-powell-as-fed-chair.html
Again, OAKMX is a 5*, LCV fund that tracks well vs the S&P, beating it by 2% over the past 3 years, by 5+% over 5 years, trailing it by a measly 0.5% over 10 years, and beating it by 2% over its LFE.
I don't diss funds that do that, especial…
Re-deployed some March 31 sales proceeds back into two of hardest hit funds since then, FSELX and FDSVX. Start of DCA process to get all of remaining proceeds re-deployed before respective OEF SELL levels regained. Target range for first DCA BUYs wa…
Words of wisdom about this from the venerable Ron Insana:
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/21/ron-insana-confidence-in-the-us-will-be-shaken-if-trump-seeks-to-remove-powell-as-fed-chair.html
We have owned OAKMX off-and-on over the years and own it currently. Still a 5* fund that tracks well vs S&P despite being LCV. Was having a very good year until the debacle. Always thought it was/is their best offering.
Very wise to nipple that way!
We're getting close to the Liberation Day lows. S&P is within spitting distance of the Big C. NASDAQ now DOWN 28% from its peak. Getting into the tempting zone (to DCA or dump) but we've seen this too many time…
