Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
@hank,
You're right—the probabilty for rate cuts was higher several weeks ago.
The probability of a 50 bps cut was also calculated but this went to zero
after the latest CPI data release.
Powell will not announce his resignation nor should he.
The CME Group indicates there is a 84.6% probability of a 25 bps cut at the
Sep. 17 FOMC meeting while there is a 15.4% probability that no action is taken.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
The next releases fo…
"'Millennials have yet to see the sweeping national renewal Trump promised,' Thomas Gift,
an associate professor of political science and director of the Centre on US Politics
at University College London, told Newsweek."
Trump is all hat and no co…
Thanks—I've enjoyed reading this article!
The so-called 4% rule is a good starting point for determining withdrawal rates
but it is not written in stone and may not be applicable in many situations.
Supposedly, financial advisors often have to encou…
I've posted the following comments in another thread—they're included here for your convenience.
The following excerpts are from a WSJ story by Greg Ip published several days ago.
"A generation ago conventional wisdom held that as China liberalize…
The following excerpts are from a WSJ story by Greg Ip published several days ago.
"A generation ago conventional wisdom held that as China liberalized, its economy
would come to resemble America’s. Instead, capitalism in America is starting to lo…
I've posted the following comments in another thread—they're included here for your convenience.
I've been pondering recent government intervention in the private sector
and pernicious threats to the Federal Reserve's independence.
This is not how …
"The administration touted customer service improvements made under Social Security’s
new commissioner Frank Bisignano, the former CEO of payments company Fiserv,
even though the agency has shed thousands of jobs and consolidated some offices
in a c…
Last night I received an email with the subject "Social Security Celebrates 90 Years
of Service to the American People" purportedly sent by Commissioner Frank J. Bisignano.
This email referenced An Open Letter to the American People.
"In an open le…
From Markets A.M. newsletter by Spencer Jakab.
On this day in 1982, The New York Times wrote "Wall Street is a wreck,"
in a long, grim autopsy called "Dark Days on Wall Street."
The nightmare was already over, and a boom was about to follow, but …
@PRESSmUP,
From the VTMFX fact sheet (dated June 30, 2025):
"The fund invests approximately 50% to 55% of its assets in municipal securities
and the balance in common stocks. The fixed income portion of the fund is concentrated
in high-quality muni…
I've been unable to bring up mutual fund charts today via the following URL:
www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/[ticker]/chart
Error #1
System Error. Check your network and try again.
My network is fine. Please check your systems and fix the issue(s).
…
"Sell was for 360.107 shares totaling a little less than $3000.
Cash available $460.65."
I logged into my Schwab account earlier today and didn't notice any anomalies.
But I didn't try to execute any trades...
VTMFX has generated higher returns with nominally greater volatility than TAIFX
since the latter fund's inception.
Sharpe/Sortino ratios and the max drawdown for VTMFX are slightly higher.
https://testfol.io/?s=avQUZ9dNzV2
"How do people place orders for ETFs: market or limit and if limit, how is that limit chosen?"
I confirm that an ETF has adequate liquidity before making a purchase.
Recent intraday highs/lows are checked to gauge an ETF's daily price range.
Limit …
We have started to see signs of increased inflation with more to come in the near future.
The Fed has not yet attained its 2% inflation goal (measured by PCE) over the long run.
Unemployment is near historically low levels but job growth slowed cons…
From Markets A.M. newsletter by Spencer Jakab.
On this day in 1935, the Social Security Act was signed into law,
ensuring some retirement income for all working Americans.
Payroll taxes were set at 1%, for both workers and employers,
on the first $…
"The reporting over the past few weeks indicated that retail investors were still fully all-in with stocks,
while the institutional guys were sitting on the sidelines."
This is also what I've heard more or less.
"A record 91% of institutional inv…
U.S. large caps are the most scrutinized stock market segment.
It's extremely difficult to add alpha here—especially when a select few companies
are responsible for much of an index's overall performance.
Investors seeking actively-managed funds may…
"Academic studies say all that is a fools errand and long term buy and hold cheap index funds wins.
But how much fun would that be?"
Many academics/industry professionals/writers suggest buying cheap, broad-based index funds
and holding them for a…
I recall Forbes' The Honor Roll.
Active Fund Strategies researched funds' subsequent performance
after inclusion on Forbes' list from 1990 through 2010 (highlighted below).
I wonder if anyone has conducted similar research for the M* list?
While …
@DrVenture,
The fact that DHS chose to reference William Gayley Simpson's book is very troubling.
It's no surprise that white supremist groups have flourished under Trump's current regime!
This annual M* list usually includes more mutual funds from American Funds and Vanguard than that
of other fund families. The only fund on the list that I personally own is Dodge & Cox Income (Class I).
I've previously owned several others—Ameri…
"Some funds have exploited an accounting loophole by buying stakes in other private-equity funds at big
discounts on the secondary market and then marking them up immediately to their official net asset values.
Sometimes the technique has resulted i…
From Spencer Jakab's Markets A.M. newsletter.
"New car prices are at a record.
People looking for a deal on a used car in the U.S. are having to pay up too.
The average price of a 3-year-old used car rose above the $30,000 mark
again earlier this y…
Here's a link to the referenced New Yorker story which describes Trump's plutocracy in much greater detail.
Warning—it's a very long story!
https://archive.ph/drmM0
"In response to the report, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told the Daily Beast:
'The media’s continued attempts to fabricate conflicts of interest are irresponsible
and reinforce the public’s distrust in what they read.
Neither the P…
@FD1000,
I have to give credit where credit is due.
You have been very consistent in propagating nonsense to bolster Donald J. Trump's standing.
Are you seeking a position within the president's administration?
It does seem that you would fit in we…
From Markets A.M. newsletter by Spencer Jakab.
On this day in 1920, Charles Ponzi was arrested for financial fraud in Boston
after taking in more than $6 million from thousands of investors he was repaying
with other investors' money. Such pyramid …
Donald J. Trump is once again boasting that he "ACED" a cognitive exam.
The actual exam results should be publicly released since this is undoubtedly in the national interest.
I suspect that the president's cognitive functions are severely impaired.…
There are no executive orders regarding gold tariffs listed on the whitehouse.gov website as of this evening.
But President Trump did post the following concise statement on Truth Social.
@realDonaldTrump 12h
A Statement from Donald J. Trump, Presi…
@FD1000,
Did you read my post regarding the rise of white nationalism that coincides with Trump's election?
This is hardly a peaceful movement!
Matter of fact, many of these "very fine people" despise Jews.
Are you not concerned at all about the gr…
"But if so, the latest tariffs won’t incentivize them to keep adding to their U.S. operations.
If anything, the incentive will be to make just enough U.S. investment to appease politicians,
then import whatever else is needed, especially considering…
"I worked with a fellow who was always parroting right wing talking points about Obamacare.
Until both his son and daughter needed affordable coverage."
It seems like quite a few of these right-wing "fellows" are absolute hypocrites.
