Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
"Looks to me like a great candidate for the Nobel Prize for Peace."
The only Nobel "prize" that Trump truly deserves is a stick of dynamite—invented by Alfred Nobel
who established the Nobel Prizes—inserted into his anus and subsequently detonated!
Coincidently, I just read the following Reuters article regarding the recent rise of white nationalist groups.
Doesn't president Trump have a solemn responsibility to encourage peace and civility in our own country?
American Nazis: The Aryan Freedo…
Someone referenced the following information on another forum.
Aerospace Engineer Richard Godfrey provides a hypothesis for the AI 171 crash.
I haven't heard this from anyone else and have no idea how accurate his thesis may be.
“The most likely …
The U.S. has historically been the gold standard for economic data.
However, this doesn't mean that there isn't room for improvement.
Since the 1980s, "owner's equivalent rent" has been used to gauge home prices.
To obtain this data, homeowners g…
“Since the early 2000s, pension funds have increasingly added private assets to their investments.”
“Private assets didn’t measurably improve pensions’ returns, says JP Aubry, associate director
of research at the Center for Retirement Research at…
The Week in Charts (08/08/25)
The State of the Markets, including...
00:00 Intro
00:32 Stocks
13:00 Bonds/Fed
20:55 Real Estate/Housing
27:29 Commodities
29:29 Currencies
31:58 Crypto
34:28 Intermarket
37:45 Economy
Video
Blog
"When going beyond the obvious winners, are too new, too small or too expensive deal killers?"
1) I like to see funds which have experienced several market downturns (preferably going back to GFC).
If the manager(s) ran similar strategies this data…
Well, isn't that special!
The administration has already started making up its own numbers.
The next CPI report released on Aug. 12 will be interesting to watch.
It wouldn't be too surprising if inflation dropped sharply all of a sudden.
The proposed settlement amount seems rather excessive.
For a point of reference, Trump University defrauded¹ thousands of students but was fined only $25M.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/judge-approves-25-million-trump-university-fraud-settlement-149…
Trump Wants $1 Billion Settlement From UCLA
“In a document viewed by The Wall Street Journal, the administration asked UCLA for $1 billion
and to 'eliminate identity-based preferences' for hiring, admissions and scholarships.
The proposal asks the…
There is a White House clarification (re gold tariffs) in the process of being issued.
So don’t do anything rash!
Don't worry at all!
The gold tariff is an incredibly thoughtful policy created by one of the smartest people on the planet.
It just nee…
No one man should have this much unchecked power.
You are absolutely correct.
Unfortunately, many so-called "patriots" just don't seem to care about democratic principles.
"This has nothing to do with the fact that he's in-bed with the crypto lobby
and the PE folks are in bed with his Treasury and Commerce secretaries, right?"
It's merely a "coincidence" my friend...
“President Trump said he would nominate Stephen Miran, the head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, to fill a vacancy on the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors on a short-term basis.”
“Trump tapped Miran in December to lead the CEA, …
U.S. Manufacturing Activity Contracted From March To July
“From March to July, U.S. manufacturing activity contracted,
according to the Institute for Supply Management’s monthly survey.
The Manufacturing PMI last registered at 48, below the 50 scor…
It appears that new car/truck prices may be increasing appreciably in the near future.
I posted this is another thread.
Auto Industry Takes $12 Billion Hit From Trade War
"President Trump’s tariff war has inflicted almost $12 billion of losses on …
Auto Industry Takes $12 Billion Hit From Trade War
"President Trump’s tariff war has inflicted almost $12 billion of losses on global automakers,
the biggest hit they have faced since the pandemic.
The scary reality: This may be just the beginning.…
Thanks for the notification!
"The executive order is part of a broad deregulatory push under the Trump administration,
which has rolled back restrictions on cryptocurrency investments,
closed regulatory probes into the industry and loosened banking…
Now, they were big revisions, absolutely, no question about that.
And not too many of those big revisions occur, though many did under my tenure
because I was the commissioner during COVID, totally different reasons why the revisions were big.”Exact…
@FD1000,
You are right to be concerned about an incoherent president.
Donald J. Trump seems to have experienced severe mental decline over the past several years.
The American people should demand that Mr. Trump undergo a comprehensive cognitive te…
Comment: You can add Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and Linda McMahon to the list of unqualified morons
in charge. Unfortunately, there is a significant number of these morons in the current administration! :-(
From Markets A.M. newsletter by Spencer Jakab.
On this day in 1979, Paul Volcker took office as chair of the Federal Reserve.
His policies broke the back of 1970s inflation but spurred two recessions.
M* has another good critique of private markets today.
And private equity deals are micro caps generally. The median market cap is less than $200 million, about $180 million. And again, micro caps as a corner of the public equity market are tiny, ti…
@msf,
Thanks for investigating!
"Why does it do that? Testfolio says that the run is limited to 1/4/16 by the inception date of MRFOX.
But the fund started on 12/28/2015, per Marshfield."
I don't know why Testfolio does this. I've experienced sim…
Thanks, yogi!
I subsequently used a website which lists weekly returns to check one of the funds.
The Max Drawdown difference was much less—4.19% vs. 13.43%.
Perhaps using weekly return data instead of daily/monthly data would be a good compromise?
President Trump ruled out selecting Scott Bessent as the Fed Chair stating:
“I love Scott, but he wants to stay where he is.”
The president said he is considering four candidates including Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh.
He declined to name the other…
From Heather Cox Richardson's Letters from an American:
“Trump sued the Wall Street Journal’s parent company Dow Jones and owner Rupert Murdoch for $10 billion.
But the lawsuit read as if it were written primarily to rile up Trump’s base.
The Wall …
Akre Focus performed well while Chuck Akre managed the fund.
It delivered strong returns with relatively low volatility.
After Chuck Akre retired in 2020, all experienced investment personnel left except for John Neff.
Neff was backed by two somewha…
I ran portfolio backtests to compare results between Portfolio Backtester and Portfolio Visualizer.
Portfolio Backtester (PB)
Changed end date to 07/31/2025 and changed starting value to $100K.
Note: Start date defaults to 01/04/2016 which is the f…
From Markets A.M. newsletter by Spencer Jakab.
"On this day in 1861, federal income tax was levied for the first time.
The Revenue Act of 1861 became law, assessing a tax of 3% on all personal income
in excess of $800 a year to help pay for the Civ…
“If the employers replying late happen to give different information from the first batch,
as happened this summer, big revisions are likely.
For example, Friday’s data showed that in May and June, there were about 109,000 fewer jobs
for educators a…
@AndyJ,
On March 28th of this year, the Education Department abruptly cancelled extensions
it previously granted which allowed states/schools additional time to spend COVID relief funds.
Although I can't draw a definitive conclusion, it seems plau…
I've posted the following in another thread and copied it below for your viewing pleasure.
William Beach, the prior BLS commissioner, was nominated by President Trump back in 2017.
Mr. Beach suggests that data from "state and local education units"…
William Beach, the prior BLS commissioner, was nominated by President Trump back in 2017.
Mr. Beach suggests that data from "state and local education units" may be the cause
for large revisions in May/June.
“We got some information from people, fr…
