Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
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BaluBalu
Professional Experience:
Corporate Finance (Corporate Venture Fund investments, International and Treasury finance, Public Debt issuances, M&A, Joint Ventures, Planning, Business Divestures, SEC filings);
Policy and Legislative & Regulatory Affairs - Washington DC;
Capital Markets - London and NYC;
Commercial Bank Lending;
Field Biology.
Thanks, @yogibearbull. Based on the data in this thread, throughout 2022, the equity levels have been the same, except in June when they were only 1% lower, which I can ascribe to June price decline. Seems like investors are aggressively rebalanci…
When all the facts are known, the average Joe may realize we are in more than a “Cold” war and this is not just a rank communist inefficiency. At the least, we may be heading towards a global recession, with China being at the center of it. Author…
@old_joe, I have a Treasury Direct account from 20 yrs ago, having bought IBonds. All my Treasury bond / Notes purchases have been at Fidelity in 2022 (except once at Schwab when I realized Fidelity is much easier for me).
More than anything, this vaccination fiasco makes me wonder if CCP is getting desperate in trying to maintain control or do we not know all the facts. It is only a $30B cost to vaccinate the whole population, a cost not worth mentioning. So, what …
Repeating what we had already discussed -
I looked into both CDs and Treasuries and settled on the latter for their high liquidity. Very easy to trade Treasuries in a brokerage account and without commission. I bought to hold but optionality to …
Talk (e.g., many sentiment surveys) does not seem to match with behavior, which still points to a FOMO behavior. I suspect, rate hikes and QT will continue until behavior is modified and the Fed may not pay attention to sentiment surveys (even thou…
China does not want to buy western-developed vaccines at the expense of COVID outbreaks among the major citie… They are revisiting spring 2020 again and this impacts their export business.
This CCP strategy to work requires a lot of permanent brai…
Thanks, @yogibearbull.
If BHE redeemed his stock, then it is a taxable transaction to him. If he wanted a tax-free transaction, then they would have structured it as an exchange of BRK stock for his BHE stock. With BRK stock, he probably can get …
The following from Lipper gives a much better granularity than the article WSJ and shows for the week ended Aug 24, there were net equity outflows, with inflows from ETFs and outflows from mutual funds.
https://www.lipperusfundflows.com/#create:new…
I reduced PRWCX and increased PRWAX at the beginning of 2021 with a thought that an impending rise in interest rates (end of some 40 yr declining interest rates) may dent PRWCX’s stellar risk adjusted performance when both equities and fixed income …
TRP will do whatever it takes to keep Giroux on PRWCX. In fact, TRP could raise ER on PRWCX and pay Giroux more. But none of that may stop when he chooses to leave. People like him who have very good clarity of thought also know when to change di…
Thanks, @yogibearbull. Very good table with 90% stats. When I clicked on the Twitter link, it took me to a tweet about today's stat but not to a table you included in your post. That is an interesting table, which shows May was volatile and inde…
China has been notorious about not allowing PCAOB access to Chinese audit work and has not followed through with past agreements re such access. There is no guarantee it is going to stick this time. I hope all the PCAOB staff visiting China are on…
Thanks, @old_joe. Re converting office space into residential property, here is one video from CNBC -
Other YouTube videos and articles on this topic turned up on google search.
I am still struggling to find out which financial assets can do…
If the trends mentioned here are the beginning of a long-term trend (i.e., symptoms of remote work, de-globalization, just in case inventory systems, etc.) could labor become more premium (i.e., wages as a source of inflation) than what we witnessed…
Since it seems Level 1 ADRs do not have to file any company financial information with the SEC, is it possible for some of the existing Chinese ADRs to avoid delisting by trading as level 1 ADRs? Sort of grand fathering!
NightShares debuted NSPY and NIWM about two months ago (last week of June) and they have since trailed SPY and IWM by, 12 and 15% (not annualized), respectively.
Any thoughts from forum members in trying to explain this big underperformance would b…
I always feel like I never know enough about the Energy sector. Would the above projections for US exports hold good if Russian gas starts flowing freely as if Russia is a friendly nation to every other nation in the world?
BRK is really a post-Buffett (91) play - can really go either way.
It was also in the news recently that the potential CEO Greg Abel (60) is very light in BRK stock. He had a choice to convert his large stake in the Energy unit into BRK stock (tax…
Rajiv Jain is the (?) founder, Chairman, & CIO of GQG Partners and probably one of the largest shareholder of that firm. Their website still shows him as working there. I expect him to retire their.
@Crash,
With his zero long, he definitely stands out among all the 13-Fs filed this month. Not sure what to make of it. Seems like he is not yet ready to short anything and does not see much upside to even buy calls. You can see a lot of the 13-…
I am not making the connection between an activist long position (Engine 1) and a non-activist long position (Michael Burry). When viewed in connection with his shorting, his $4M investment seems even smaller. Seems like an entertainment position …
1. yes is my guess based on 5yr-5yr break evens. I just add 75 bps to the current 10 yr rates for the QT and get to the 3.5% we saw, which is a reasonable approximation.
2. do not know
