Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Dr. V. Let’s add uncertainty and the decline in the value of the dollar to your list. And based on the last six months just plain old fashioned fear and distrust in the government that is unprecedented. If one is paying attention it’s hard to have …
As if health care for most people isn't already out of this world. Now we need tariffs on the pharmaceutical that keeps people alive, or from suffering. I just read an article that referenced a woman who thought it was "hilarious" to vote for Trump …
And it goes way beyond that. For instance, corporate execs and corporate boards are making decisions that benefit themselves, as shareholders, board members or to secure their jobs.
And all administrations are some degree of self-serving. It comes…
"Non-farm payrolls encompass all jobs in the U.S. economy, excluding farm workers, private household employees, and unpaid volunteers. Private payrolls, on the other hand, specifically track employment within the private sector, excluding government…
Tomorrow’s tweet tonight: “Who the hell is this ‘court?’ Has anybody ever heard of them? Why are they rolling out these fake decision decisions that never should be allowed? It’s a disaster for our country and needs to be fixed IMMEDIATELY. Thank y…
The goalpost just got moved to August 2nd from July 9th. So much wins if so many deals are being made! Where is BS1000?
Somewhere telling people that predictions are not always correct? Believing that is the response to everything? The economic …
This fixation on the trade deficit is bizarre. The notion that we a "sending our money" elsewhere, ignores what we have gotten out of that - an unbelievable deal on products that the people want and/or need. If I want to buy a product made in anothe…
The predictions and thoughts of individuals are merely food for thought, no one thinks that anyone can make highly accurate predictions consistently. Everyone is aware that predictions are often wrong.
The problem right now is that it is very hard…
The Johnson tax cuts multiplied the budget deficit by a 6x compared to two years earlier. taxes were raised again in 1969, by Nixon, which led to the last budget surplus until Clinton in 1998. The top income bracket was 90% before Johnson lowered it…
@DrVenture, thank you for sharing. The falling dollar since Dec 2024 was concerning when it fallen 9% YTD. The question of whether the dollar remains as the world last resort have been brought up several times. The last downgrade by Moody due to …
Which all means that everything needs to be taken with grain of salt. And even the best funds can fall out of favor. B&H may not always be the best approach when dealing with sector funds, in particular. I have my non-401K portfolio at T Rowe …
We might look back at 2022 and try to apply certain aspects to now. Jeremy Siegel had a lot to say about inflation back then. His inflation thoughts were largely correct, in retrospect. Where Siegel was correct was that the FED had underestimated i…
A tighter labor market, tariffs on $3.4 trillion of imports, tax cut stimulus, and a high level of government spending are all happening. This is not even questionable.
The question is not whether or not these are all inflationary pressures. They …
Exactly what I expected. The email was BS, there is a deduction for seniors, but not relevant to SS specifically. And it is temporary - Trump stimulus bribe.
I am assuming they did not expect talks to be cancelled, be adding just another bargaining chip. When Trump over-reacted, they pulled back because of the harm this is all doing to them is greater than striking some form of deal.
I expect GDP to be schizophrenic. Continuity of orders has been disrupted. Q1 shocked by tariff chaos, followed by orders being pulled forward in Q2, maybe scavenging from Q3. Perhaps Q4 impacted by tariff-induced price hikes making their way into t…
It seems that the big picture issue is that the oil industry is projecting that tariffs lead to a slower global economy, which leads to lower demand for its products. And higher drilling costs. Possibly, a canary in the coal mine.
@catch22 I totally get it. I agree that it is a useful skill. My son can type like the wind, he has degrees in Journalism and Computer Science. As you can imagine typing has served him well, too.
I recall my dad having Royals and maybe a Remington…
Agree on all these points, softening in labor would encourage rates cuts, if inflation goes no higher. Continuing strong jobs and stable inflation would delay rate cuts. Softening in jobs and higher inflation over a period of months, would be a prob…
The Cato institute ( with George Will's endorsement) is a very Conservative think tank focusing on individual liberty, free enterprise and economics.
They have an analysis of the massive recessionary and stagflation impact of the ICE budget. ICE…
The problem is that people like us, cannot type and watch the screen at the same time. Which can lead to all sorts of hilarity, as a result of auto-correct. I re-read everything that I type, sometimes twice. Auto-correct can be turned off on devices…
I am adding cautiously to INTL large caps. Starting in Jan 2025, I pulled back heavily on riskier assets, after riding the 2023/2024 equity wave. But, this rationale was twofold. I needed to pull back due to impending retirement (2026). And the tari…
You of all people should have a subscription
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/27/opinion/trump-budget-big-beautiful-bill.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Tk8.wSgs.OFKFM1hFVG9H&smid=url-share
This article should be required reading. People should be …
... If it makes you feel better, Socrates (no less!) objected to writing because he felt that would undercut our ability to remember things ...
This is funny because my son used to ask me why I didn't rely on the computer search function to find fi…
I might add that AI is still very early stages. Just like software can take inputs from all of a cars sensors and manage to drive the car in certain well-mapped locales. You might be fooled into thing that an actual human was at the wheel. Until som…
I am no AI expert. But, much can be extrapolated through other expertise and common constructs.
Firstly, if all AI did was copy, consolidate and dump verbatim the data it was using for input, it would essentially be a search engine or a machine-ba…
Hi there @Sven, and thank you very much. OK, best to ignore the clown.
such uninformed crap
Correct. He is dying for validation through people thinking that he is worthy of debate. He isn't. He wants to throw political darts, they will not let him …
Contrary to the view from FD and his rose colored glasses ,,, America is fucked and we won’t even know how bad for weeks. The pundits I follow say fight we must but I don’t see a path forward. Anyone have any hope to share?
I am not in the camp tha…
Because they fear science. they do not like or understand the empirical process. And it stands in the way of lies and manipulations. It also makes many people scared that there could be big changes occurring in a world that they want desperately to …
Speaking of money, I admit some awe of many of you MFOers for the selfless opposition to the continued Trump taxes. I think I can safely assume most to all of you have more tax burden than I do. If my taxes revert to the pre-trump tax brackets the t…
Dr Venture. This thread has made me smile in an otherwise shitty day for the country. I bet the OP has NO Idea what any of this means. These posts really tie the thread together.
Agreed. Keep on smiling, my friend.
We shouldn't lose sight of the ball. The whole MAGA movement was supposedly about giving the little guy what they 'deserved'. As it turns out, narcissistic billionaires, with a habit or not paying contractors and service people, are prone to taking …
@Observant1 Thanks.
Did you get a better rate than the ultrashort bond fund, by purchasing the 6-month T-Bills? They appear to be at 4.256% today. Are you trying to head off a future drop in shorter term instruments?
I have never bought individu…
Bought PIMIX last week on Friday. And again today at COB.
Bought shares of an INTL index fund at COB on Friday - current equity now ~58%.
Bought some PFN to add to an existing position, used proceeds of some preferred stock that I sold. Still sitti…
At FD1000…. Just your opinion man. Another POV is that it’s just another shitty week in which the rule of law,, democracy, the constitution and governance by three branches all go down the drain. And the greatest upward transfer of wealth and the m…
