Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
So, those are all valid points. If you buy a fund and you expect it to have a diversified portfolio and its 90% in financial, you should sell. Most people sold later and personally, I don't think most people understood what they were getting into. N…
So this is all wrong for a couple of reasons.
I bought FAIRX very close to its high water mark in September 2010. It two years, it went down a lot and then it went up a lot. What does it look like now? About the same. Certainly, there have been mo…
Well, I have to disagree with that. There is nothing particularly complicated about buying 8 stocks with 60% of your money and holding the rest in cash, but that doesn't make it easy to do well. The right 8 stocks will do fantastically and the wron…
I completely disagree that this should be treated like a bond fund. It is essentially arbitrage, and should be treated as such. The risk profile is very different than bonds; interest rate risk is almost non-existent and default risk should also muc…
So.... Facebook could grow at 24% a year. That would give something like, 13 billion pretax income, which is what google makes. That is certainly within the realm of possibilities. The price certainly isn't cheep by any means, but the company may g…
Reply to @MJG: I can see why someone could be turned off by the style of Krugman's presentation, but generally, at least with economics, things tend to happen the way Krugman says they will happen. That's pretty rare.
Perpetual bull,
This sounds like an awesome idea. Can I presume that you want to teach your daughter something about investing with this? There are a lot of good funds, but some of them have more communicative managers, transparent processes with l…
So, if a large share holder starts selling, it will effect the price of AIA and as a result Fairholme over the short term. Over a longer period of time, and Berkowitz is sure to hold AIA for a while, it won't matter at all.
The selling is a divest…
Yeah, he definitely has something interesting things to say. He does some pretty interesting valuation forecasts and is a good critic of, I would say, the ongoing narrative. He's very critical, and I think rightly so, of using a lot of economic data…
There are some pretty good statistical reasons not to believe Hussman's forecasts. Hussman's models suffer from a problem called 'overfitting.' This means that in an attempt to gain precision in his forecasts, he has put too many pieces of informat…
In dollar terms, TIPS holders will still get the inflation adjustment and get more dollars than they paid.
It will just be worth less in inflation adjusted terms.
I'm in the same position as you. If this were July, I would say FAAFX. Both of these funds have a lot of issue specific risk and a very concentrated, so they will be volatile both in relationship to themselves as well as any benchmark. It is REALLY…
You have to be careful comparing a fund to a benchmark that the manager sets, sometime they will use an inappropriate benchmark as well.
For example, Wintergreen Fund lists the S&P 500 as its benchmark but it has something like 60% of its asset…
Those are all good funds, but keep in mind that there is a lot of overlap between the funds and that FTBFX, BCOIX and MWTRX especially, are all basically doing the same thing.
Basically, these funds will underweight treasuries and overweight Mort…
Reply to @MaxBialystock: At Fidelity, DODIX has a $75 transaction fee, but it is certainly a good fund. They stay overweight corporates and underweight treasuries, so it really is riskier than its index.
And here's a note on the investment process:
"Adviser’s Philosophy
Seafarer believes that disciplined active management, applied over a long-term horizon, can enhance investment performance and mitigate portfolio volatility.
Seafarer believes that …
Reply to @scott: I'm going to have to disagree with you on this. I like BB's argument and would buy more on weakness (like a 30% drop from here). I don't really care that he changes his mind or doesn't control for risk. Its an aggressive fund.
Rono,
Thanks for the response, which I really do appreciate. I would be inclined disagree with you on the merit of changing the Inflation index for the last 30 year, but to be honest I can't say that I've developed an informed opinion on the techn…
Reply to @rono: Do you have evidence for any of this or is this your opinion? Maybe I just don't understand but the economy is larger now than it was in the 90s so I don't understand how we've been in a recession for ten years. I also don't unders…
I don't think I'm aggressively buying here. I'm comfortable holding stock at these levels, but I don't think a 15% drop justifies taking a more aggressive equity position right now. I am concerned about the possibility of something very ugly happen…