Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi Guys,
Mario Joseph Gabelli is one smart stock picker. In many ways his research and style mimics the methods of Munger and Buffett. Here is a Link to a recent exchange he had on the 25iq website:
http://25iq.com/2015/06/13/a-dozen-things-ive-…
Hi Guys,
Please note that the referenced Bill Bernstein article was written in 2001. There has been a lot of water both through and over the dam since that time.
To make a quick visual update to the data sets that Bernstein referenced, being lazy…
Hi Edmond,
I certainly agree that special interests and their hired guns, the lobbyists, influence lawmakers and the laws. Although most of us do not play in that game and most citizens object to it, it happens. Our protests are noticed, but are …
Hi Guys,
The search for mutual fund performance persistence has long been a long standing investor’s goal. It is illusive. In his seminal 1997 study titled “On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance”, Mark Carhart summarized his findings as follo…
Hi Guys,
Like Ted, I made some money investing in Peter Lynch and Magellan. Unlike Ted, I only invested small amounts, and only after Lynch had piloted Magellan for a half dozen years. The percentage returns were impressive, the dollar amounts muc…
Hi Guys,
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know that just ain’t so.” That quote, or some close approximation, is often credited to either Mark Twain or Will Rogers. Take your pick. But that saying is especi…
Hi BenWP,
You are spot on-target with “However, my amateurish analysis of the long-term performance of the equity funds shows they barely keep up with their benchmarks.” And I concur with your conclusion “that a stable of well-known managers is no…
Hi Guys,
I just read the Barry Ritholtz referenced column. It certainty has a philosophical bent to it. Each of us is likely to have a very personal takeaway from it based on our investment and life experiences.
Mine is that he is cautioning inv…
Hi Guys,
I hope you can endure just one more round.
A statistician and his wife just had twins. They called the priest to arrange a baptism. The priest told them to bring the twins in next Sunday. The statistician said he would bring only one t…
Hi JohnN,
Thank you for the Link to this Joshua Kennon article. Over many years I have been informed by his many fine financial articles. This one did not disappoint in that regard.
Kennon mostly directs his writings towards neophyte investors. …
Hi Guys.
Indeed a funny story.
Nice analysis msf. I agree that since the probability of one of the bombs on=board is perfectly known (its probability is One), the overall probability remains unchanged.
Conditional probability is not an easy subj…
Hi Old Skeet,
Congratulations to both you and your Engineer friend. You have each chosen separate investment pathways, but your common decisions to save and invest early in your earning lifecycle is yielding a huge payoff today. That’s no great s…
Hi Guys,
I’m thoroughly enjoying and learning from this exchange. It’s being conducted in a civil way with emphasis on what works, or at least what is believed to work. Thank you all for many fine contributions.
I’m going to change direction a …
Hi MrRuffles,
I do not have a rigid formulaic set of rules, but I do deploy a generic set that serve as guidelines to reduce the selection field to manageable proportions.
Here is my candidate set, not necessarily in order of importance and it is …
Hi Guys,
You all have committed a ton of energy and emotions to this posting. It is clear to me that the likely rewards from your efforts do not equal the costs. This is a debate that has no resolution today, and most likely none in the future. …
Hi Guys,
Each and every month, Professor David Snowball and his talented team do a superior job of keeping us informed, and making us better investors. This month’s Commentary is no exception.
They give us the tools, but it’s up to us to get the j…
Hi Guys,
Indeed, the market breadth is foul at this time. But as Junkster correctly reported, there can be a long time-lag between that signal and a market direction reversal. That indicator, like all others, also generates false signals. But it…
Hi Guys,
A very nice summary of the life experiences that were major factors in contributing to Kahneman's perspectives and life style.. Everything is a web of couplings, some strong, some illusively weak.
Kahneman's entry into "noise" studies sh…
Hi Guys,
Rick Ferri completely agrees with MikeM’s observation that increasing the number of actively managed funds in any fund category lowers the likelihood of positive Alpha (excess returns) in that category.
According to studies completed by F…
Hi Ted,
Thank you for Linking to this excellent video from Professor Kaku. He is in his usually brilliant form with clear and understandable explanations. Great stuff.
But his brilliance is being dissipated with his commitment to String Theory r…
Hi Old Joe,
Folks who do not commonly make sophisticated calculations (non-linear differential equations) overly trust the precision of the numbers computed. This is especially the case if the calculations include some unfamiliar modeling elements…
Hi Guys,
I momentarily hesitated before posting Housel’s “Good Enough” article.
The cause for the pause was the subtitle of the article: “Why rules of thumb beat precision.” That observation is true in many instances, but it is not a universal tr…
Hi Old Joe,
Again you distort the evidence. I rarely post negative comments against MFO members, and I rarely offer negative observations about externally referenced work.
I suspect that if you total your negative submittals directed at my posts,…
Hi Old Joe,
Well, I suppose your most recent diatribe directed at me means that you have once again regressed to your unidirectional feud against me. You certainly hold a grudge that I don’t share.
As in many past instances, your recent assertion…
Hi LewisBraham,
Thank you for your stimulating and thought provoking last posting. I have not given the technology/job interaction matter any serious thinking time until your well constructed post. The recent widening gap between technology advan…
Hi davidrmoran,
I am infrequently flabbergasted and just a little bewildered when mean spirited exchanges occur on the MFO Board. MFO is dedicated and designed to explore mutual fund investment initiatives, some controversial, which are best under…
Hi msf, Hi davidrmoran, Hi LewisBraham
The poverty statistic that I recalled was one based singularly on income. It did not incorporate supplemental government programs like food stamps when calculating the number. Yes, the total percentage of fo…
Hi Catch22,
My initial reaction to the original post was to ignore it. However, subsequent postings seemed to get very ad hoc with undocumented and unnecessary comments.
These later negative additions motivated me to post. I was attempting to ge…
Hi msf,
Thank you for your comments and your references. I am familiar with some, but definitely not, all of them.
I completely agree with your observation that the Gini Coefficient has shortcomings. No single Index can capture all the nuances o…
Hi Guys,
Income redistribution happens in all countries. It is just a matter of degree. A properly aligned pay scale will be sorted out by our Capitalistic system over time.
How much redistribution is “best” is an unresolved question that is like…
Hi Guys,
I share Old Joe's puzzlement over the GMO forecast that seems to decouple both Timber and Emerging Markets from US equity returns.
For example, correlation coefficients between US equity and Emerging Markets in the past have been as high …
Hi Maurice and Guys,
By being a long term resident in one of the Northeastern states, you have increased your likelihood of becoming a millionaire. The distribution of millionaires within the USA is very uneven.
It’s interesting that many referen…
Hi Dex,
This from a 2015 article by CNBC's Robert Frank:
"The study, from market research and consulting firm Spectrem Group, found that there are now 10.1 million households in the U.S. with $1 million or more in investable assets, excluding the …
Hi Dex,
The Millionaire Club numbers are hard to assemble. Different agencies use different methods. Therefore, the final quoted numbers vary. They should be interpreted as informed estimates.
In the referenced article, the WSJ credited the Pho…
Hi Dex,
Often the retirement decision is a high anxiety event because of portfolio performance uncertainty. If the retirement depends on a portfolio drawdown, a few bad years can do lasting damage.
There are plenty of millionaires in the USA. In…
Hi Guys,
First, let me add to the anecdotal replies. I have 3 university level degrees: a mechanical engineering degree, and advance aeodynamic and nuclear engineering degrees. My wife has a microbiology degree. We both believe that these degree…
Hi msf,
Thank you for your reply.
My GIGO comment was specifically directed at some sloppy inputs that users sometime make. Both bad program design and bad user input contribute to erroneous planning.
The article's author recognized this executi…
Hi Guys,
The two referenced articles that claim retirement planning tools are useless are themselves useless.
It is hard to find more than one or two insights provided by these foolish, uneven articles. One is that any retirement projection that …
