Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi Old Skeet,
Thanks for giving us a brief outline of your market barometer. It’s one of many potential market timing mechanisms. Many such mechanisms are in general use. Here is a Link that provides several alternate formulations:
https://www.…
Hi Guys,
The don’t list in this article is far too, too short. Investment traps are far more challenging then this article might suggest. Warren Buffett had far more insights into investments many dangers. He summarizes them much more completely…
Hi Guys,
The referenced article is spot-on-target. Here is a terrific quote from the article:
“You are never going to hear from them the words that are the essence of investing: “I don’t know.” Being unable to admit uncertainty is dangerous, beca…
Hi davidrmoran,
Well, I seemed to have hit a nerve. That was never my goal. In my closing remarks I did attempt to praise you: quote “I believe you are an experienced, knowledgeable investor.” I meant it. I hope that you didn’t consider that I …
Hi Guys,
I'm 84 years young. Discussing investment options and the economic world with you have been a great help to me in keeping my old man at the door. He tries but fails. Many thanks to all of you.
My Very Best Wishes
Hi davidrmoran,
I understand the point you make. It is true in many instances, but false in others. The auto example that you selected as an illustration is terrible. Today’s cars are much improved over those of a few years ago. Some things ch…
Hi Davidrmoran,
I too recognized the article's publication date. It was a long time ago and indeed the information could be stale and no longer relevant. I did consider that possibility and rejected it. Old does not immediately mean bad and outd…
Hi OJ,
Please keep your discovery a secret. I don’t want my enemies to find this out. Wait a minute! I don’t want my friends to find this out either!!!!!
Note my familiar hello greeting. What’s happening to me? It can’t be good, or can it? F…
Hi Guys,
The correctness and applicability of the 4% drawdown rule is situational dependent. What is the asset allocation distribution? What is the expected future annual returns? How solid is the economy? An endless array of questions and unce…
Hi Hank,
I suspect that the differentials quoted are associated with the difference between price and money. The price is what someone believes an offered product is worth. If a buyer actually makes a deal that turns price into money.
If I make …
Hi Guys,
DALBAR has been providing this useful service for many years. And for these many years the numbers and stats change, but the basic conclusion does not. With a few exceptions, investors suck. We underperform the various Indices most of t…
Hi Guys,
The data demonstrates just how critical time-in-market (TIM) really is. Performance persistence is a very controversial subject when considering mutual fund selection.
Here is a Link that explores the issues:
http://www.fwp.partners/wp-…
Hi Guys,
In my earlier post I made a generic observation that equity market up days exceeded down day frequency. That’s merely a general comment that is not satisfactory. Here is a Link to specific data:
https://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/St…
Hi Guys,
The referenced article makes a strong case that indeed “curiosity kills the cat”. Many investing wizards are quoted in the article that support that position. In this instance, I am with these experts. The market up days only slightly e…
Hi Guys,
While I agree that asset allocation is a key factor that determines end rewards, I believe that total time in the market is even more significant.
The commitment to “stay the course”:when times are hard and returns have disappointed makes…
Hi Hank, Crash, Old Joe,
Thank you for investing time by reading my posts. They must stimulate your interest in either a positive or negative way. That works for me. I typically do not waste my time and do not reciprocate.
Best Wishes
Hi Guys,
Just as when planning an investing strategy, there is no single way to be a winner with respect to beers. There are countless winning ways that is dependent on circumstance and taste. Here is a list of winning beers according to a source …
Hi Guys,
Since the referenced article talked Monte Carlo analysis, you likely anticipated I might contribute a comment or two. You were right.
The article summarized some of the benefits of Monte Carlo, but also highlighted what the author believ…
Hi Hank,
You misinterpret the purpose of my submittal. I had no intention to bad-mouth Crash or anyone else who contributes to this informed Board. Sorry that my posts are not always clear. I do always try but sometimes fail to make my points. …
Hi Crash,
I don’t know, and I truly don’t care about my portfolio today. It doesn’t matter over the long run. What happens on any given day is noise.
Checking a portfolio frequently can be harmful to both your health and your wealth. The proper …
Hi Hank,
Over decades investor annual returns performance is not very impressive. The accumulated data demonstrates that the average investor earns slightly more than half the relevant Index returns. See my reference:
https://seekingalpha.com/ar…
Hi Gary,
You are spot on target.. I corrected my Link. It requires a second Click to get to the specific tool that I referenced. Sorry about my lazy post. Thank you for the alert, and thank you for reading my submittal.
Best Wishes
Hi Hank,
What expert? What was his criteria to determine his asset allocation? I would guesstimate that an effective allocation is circumstance and goal specific. One size does NOT fit all. The impact of various asset allocations can be easily …
Hi Guys,
Pi is perfectly defined as the ratio of the circumference of a circle divided by its diameter. Once that definition is evaluated, it becomes only approximated by a series of numbers that are infinitely long. For example:
3.14159 26535 8…
Hi Guys,
Nothing new here. The performance data remains very persistent in this arena. The few winners in any fund category in any year fail to repeat their outperformance success in the following years. Here is yet another reference that demons…
Hi Guys,
Year after year the SPIVA reports persistently document the general failure of active fund management to even match the performance delivered by comparable Index products. It's a sad story.
Over a one year period many excepts do exist ( …
Hi Guys,
This article manages to go from dumb to dumber. It might be solid advice for a few investors, but not for 99% of us. It recommends high risk portfolio components that historically have not delivered superior average annual returns when c…
Hi Old Joe,
Thanks for your very generous post. I never did abandon this fine site although I probably post less frequently now than in the past. I have less to say these days. I suspect some folks believe I didn't have much to say of interest a…
Hi Guys,
The only time that I'm the smartest person in the room is when I'm the only person in that room. Even then, I'm not all that smart by any measure. Being smart is a very subjected judgement and is likely to change over time and circumstan…
Hi Guys,
Risk is difficult to define. It means different things to different folks, and is likely very dynamic, changing dramatically for an individual over time. That's one major reason why a never ending debate is a likely outcome when discussi…
Hi Guys,
The article references Jack Bogle's book titled "Enough". The book is about a decade old, but contains a timeless set of summary rules. It's Bogle at his best. I plan to reread the book. Here is a Link that lists the chapter headings. …
Hi Old Skeet,
I agree with you that the given Table is a terrific tool that demonstrates the general value in diversification.
There is also an easy to use tool that more numerically demonstrates the value of diversification. The website Portfoli…
Hi Guys,
If anyone identifies a pattern in this tangle let us know about it. It is a mess. The only information that is revealed is that the markets are random and not predictable. That just might be enough to make a point.
Best Wishes
Hi Guys,
Does more data always deliver better decisions?
My answer may seem cowardice, but I believe there is no simple, single reply. It depends. It depends not on the quantity of data, but much more significantly on its quality, it's accuracy, …
Hi Guys,
The Callan Periodic Table is a great way to visually demonstrate the wild gyrations that reflect market group annual returns. What goes up is sure to go down in a mostly random, nonpredictable manner. Some skill helps to predict a revers…
Hi Guys,
And then there is one thing that I'm pretty sure about: We all overreact to news, especially to money matters. That overreaction is costly when investing in the marketplace. It is the primary reason why we consistently underperform mark…
Hi Guys,
Change, especially in markets, has always happened, and will continue to do so in a very hard to predict manner. No experienced investor will strongly argue against that proclamation.
Here is a quote that addresses the issue: " He answe…
Hi Guys,
Fees always matter, but Morningstar has a more comprehensive way to rate fund management. They use a 5 parameter criteria. These criteria are: Process, Performance, People, Parent, and Price, not necessarily in that order of importance.…
