Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi Bee,
Really good stuff. Thank you for the wealth recovery chart. Charts are far more effective at demonstrating a salient point than simple text material. Many folks do not handle percentages without making errors.
A 30% discount and an addi…
Reply to @TSP_Transfer:
Hi TSP Transfer,
Thank you for the thoughtful reply. A special thank you for the superior reference; I was not aware of the existence of Quote Investigator. I’ll surely use its service in the future. It is a fascinating …
Hi Mark,
Thank you for the excellent reference to the Morningstar ETF article that challenges the validity of various investment back-tested strategies. Simply put, these strategies are mostly nothing more than statistical correlations.
Correlati…
Hi Guys,
I greatly disliked referencing the AAII Permanent Portfolio article using an indirect source. So I continued the search for a direct route and found it. Here is a direct Link:
http://www.aaii.com/journal/article/the-permanent-portfolio-…
Hi Bee,
Although I did own the Permanent Portfolio in the 1980s, I abandoned it a long time ago because of what I perceived as a too rigid formulaic investment policy. Given its rather passive and defensive strategy, it was never designed to be a …
Reply to @Junkster:
Hi Jungster,
You must do very well with your investing program given your psychic powers. I presume you possess that power since you somehow envisioned something in my MFO post that never happened. I never edited any comments…
Reply to @Old_Joe:
Hi Old Joe,
You took exception to three sets of comments on this thread. They were selected from three separate sources; one was from my contribution. I will not comment or defend the excerpts from the other sources, but will…
Reply to @davidrmoran:
Hi David,
Thank you for both accessing my post and viewing the Forbes/Mauboussin interview.
Michael Mauboussin occupies several demanding chairs, both in the academic community and in the financial world. His time commitme…
Hi Guys,
Three days ago, I had a name recognition challenge with Maria Bartiromo. I do not watch much television; I watch no business TV except under panic event circumstances. Daily financial shows are noise. So, under normal conditions, I woul…
Hi Mark,
Thank you for providing another Mauboussin reference.
I have a very short list of financial and investment heroes. Michael Mauboussin is on that short list. I particularly admire his definition and interpretation of the luck/skill inves…
Hi Guys,
This Paul Merriman article is fundamentally a revisit to the Lazy-Man portfolios long advocated by Paul Farrell on the same MarketWatch website. The Index dominated Lazy portfolios have been often discussed by MFO members, but I suppose …
Reply to @David_Snowball:
Hi David,
Thank you for the reminder that Michael Mauboussin was the subject of an MFO exchange earlier this year. With your nudge, I hazily recall that I participated in that discussion. I am a big Mauboussin fan and …
Reply to @Junkster:
Hi Junkster,
Thank you for the unexpected and motivational references. I was unfamiliar with either reference. I think I’ll pass on the additional Livermore biography; I’ve had enough of the Boy Plunger. But I am intrigued b…
Hi Mark,
Thank you for reading my post. I hope you visited the Buffett reference. Ad hominem remarks always command a reply.
I mostly agree with Buffett’s investment advice. Also, I mostly agree with BobC’s investment advice. I made that perfe…
Hi David,
Once again congratulations on yet another hugely informative and comprehensive monthly commentary post.
Each month I conclude that the current post is the high-water marker for your outstanding summaries; every following month you prove …
Reply to @davidrmoran:
Hi Davidrmoran,
I hear your frustrations loud and clear with respect to the investment golden rule that “Don’t look at past returns to gauge future performance” is a bit overdone. It is.
I do it all the time. Financial an…
Hi Catch22,
I am not an economist and have never attempted to explain Japan’s woeful economy over the last several decades. In some neighborhoods that might qualify me as an expert. I certainly make no such claims.
However, you did ask for an an…
Hi Guys,
The Rand Paul challenge to the Yellen Fed chief nomination is an ill-conceived political ploy that is doomed to fail. His efforts will devolve to smoke and mirrors without igniting a fire.
Janet Yellen is eminently qualified to hold tha…
Hi Guys,
I want to thank all of you for responding to my commentary.
I appreciate your attention and efforts. Your comments are lively, enthusiastic, and thoughtful. They are both stimulating and educational. I certainly learned from them. I f…
Hi BobC,
Perhaps my standards are too high, but that’s why I only post on the MFO website. Although I concur with your generic market observations, I rate your five closing webcast talking points as prosaic and pedestrian.
My criterion for judgin…
Reply to @BobC:
Hi BobC,
Thank you so much for your outstanding reply.
I find it easy to accept the lessons that you learned and now apply in your 30 years of real world investment advisor experience. There is no substitute for experience.
Your…
Reply to @BobC:
Hi BobC,
Nobel Laureate Bill Sharpe would be proud of your understanding of the risk/reward tradeoff. His Sharpe Ratio was one of the earliest attempts to capture and characterize both critical aspects of the investment puzzle. …
Reply to @David_Snowball:
Hi Professor David,
Yes, I would greatly appreciate your assessments of the SPIVA releases on a regular basis.
I would also anticipate that your assessments would be more useful to the MFO membership if you simultaneousl…
Hi Guys,
I was not familiar with the 25iq website that I referenced in my original posting. I have since discovered the depth and richness of the financial material that is accessible on that site. I am overwhelmed by it, and wanted to alert you …
Hi Ted,
I want to thank LA Times business writer Tom Petruno for the fine article that fairly assesses the pros and cons of the active/passive mutual fund controversy. I especially want to thank you for bringing the wide MFO audience’s attention t…
Hi Guys,
You are making a fundamental error in equating a smart, high IQ to a successful investor. Once an average IQ threshold has been penetrated, an investor is in a comfortable investment zone. There is some evidence that having an extra high…
Reply to @davidrmoran:
Hi Davidrmoran,
Yes, nobody denies that Superinvestors really do exist. Benjamin Graham himself and Warren Buffett serve as shining and irrefutable examples that beating the market happens. The issue is to identify these …
Hi Guys,
One thing is certain in the investment marketplace: change will happen.
This latest article by Morningstar’s John Rekenthaler is a continuation of relatively new wave thinking about risks and asset allocation. Its primary departure is fr…
Reply to @hank:
Hi Hank,
Thank you for taking time to respond to my missive.
I think you overreacted to what I intended as a rather innocuous request for supportive documentation. I intended to assert nothing other than I favor data accumulatio…
Hi Guys,
I am definitely not an expert on FOMC policy or policy watching so, almost by definition, I am not an expert on any connection between FOMC policy and the equity markets reaction to it. There are market gurus and researchers who do practi…
Hi Guys,
Thank you for contributing to this hot button issue. Your submittals added depth to my original posting. I really do respect your diverse opinions.
The decision to purchase actively managed mutual fund products is a critical portfolio c…
Hi Guys,
If you don’t know, I have some skills and experience that contribute to my qualifications in assessing Monte Carlo-based retirement analyses. I have reviewed much of the literature, have done countless specific analyses, and have even wri…
Hi Lawlar and the MFO Gang,
My experiences with regard to group behavior at investment seminars dovetails exactly with your observations. Folks attending these forums have low tolerance for investment principles and guidelines, but hungrily seek s…
Hi Hank,
Thank you so very much for your referral to the “Wealth of Common Sense” website. I needed the boost.
Given the emphasis that MFO puts on newbie actively managed mutual funds, my morphing towards a portfolio that is dominated by passivel…
Reply to @mrdarcey:
Hi mrdarcy,
No need to apologize for a late posting. Your comments expand the discussion in yet another dimension, and that improves the usefulness of this controversial thread. In the marketplace of ideas, the time-clock is…
Hi Mark,
You are far too generous at forgiving Mr. Carnevale for his omission of the impact of risk on total portfolio performance. It is not a minor, inconsequential consideration.
I disagree with your assessment that Mr. Carnevale did not promi…
Hi Mark,
Thanks for your reference to the risk assessment article by Chuck Carnevale.
Overall, it is very extensive as it examines several dimensions of the risk landscape. For all its widespread specific examples and quotes from respected invest…
Reply to @Hrux:
Hi Heather,
Upon further reflection of your decision to favor passive Index funds for your company’s retirement program, I recalled some recent other institutional agency conversions to the passive investing discipline.
I certainl…
Reply to @Hrux:
Hi Heather,
I too am a fan of the late Harry Browne on several layers. I own a couple of his books and attended a few of his sessions at the Las Vegas MoneyShow. No doubt, he was a smart investor and truly attempted to control r…
