Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Reply to @catch22:
Hi Catch,
Wow!
Thank you for your in-depth analyses. Ir is obvious that you have given this matter considerable research and assessment. Your submittal demonstrates the work commitment, and your dedication to understanding t…
Reply to @Old_Joe:
Hi Joe,
I fully recognize and happily acknowledge that most MFO forum participants can be counted among the cohort that Charles Murray, author of “Coming Apart”, identified as the “cognitive elite”.
I’m sure that you count you…
Reply to @prinx:
Hi Prinx,
Thanks for the heads-up. The Link worked when I originally submitted it. I checked. I checked just now and experienced a problem also.
I independently visited the S&P site and gained access with the following:
…
Hi Wall Street Ranter,
First an honest disclaimer: I am not an expert on any Morningstar rating system.
However, I have used the earlier Morningstar “Star” ratings as a partial negative input into my mutual fund buying decisions. I am only loose…
Reply to @Old_Joe:
Hi Joe,
Indeed you made a similar observation two days ago. We agree completely.
I made the same observation in my original posting four days ago. To quote my own submittal:
"Chaos Theory, based on the butterfly effect discov…
Reply to @Old_Joe:
Hi Joe,
I purposely omitted the age descriptor because we’re likely the same age, and I don’t consider that old.
I’m not so much puzzled at your assessment of the fairness of the WSJ as I am about your continuing support for, …
Global Warming scientists defend their position.
Hi Guys,
Today, following its well established fairness policy, the WSJ published a rebuttal to the opinion letter that I referenced in my opening post on the climate controversy. The WSJ typically…
Hi Guys,
The responses to my Global Warning submittal were enlightening and entertaining, if not always accurate or fair. The posts often tell a lot about the posters themselves.
Unlike Rono, I am not a tree hugger. I would never apply that desc…
Reply to @Anonymous:
Each person owns his unique tradeoff scale. Economists have long recognized that actions are not isolated events. Henry Hazlitt summarized this connectivity well in his fine book “Economics in One Lesson”. He said: “The art …
Reply to @Anonymous:
Hi Joy,
Most scientists and engineers are not GUT discovery motivated. GUT is the acronym for Grand Unification Theory. Most scientists and particularly engineers are dedicated to more practical problem solving.
Albert Ein…
Reply to @scott:
Hi Scott,
Thanks for your reference to AQR Capital Management’s interpretation and implementation of the Risk Parity concept. Although I am generally familiar with the concept, my understanding of its details, especially its exe…
Reply to @Ted:
Hi Ted,
I do subscribe to the WSJ.
At the time of my posting, I checked and the story appeared to be accessible to the general public. My error.
Thanks for the heads-up.
MJG
Hi Flack,
Thanks for your explanation of the time periods that you selected for your earlier submittal. I personally do not find them compelling by any stretch, but that's just one investor's opinion. While the timeframes are not random, they are…
Reply to @scott:
Hi Scott,
Thank you so much for your excellent, erudite, and well crafted reply.
I totally enjoyed it.
I agreed with almost all of your assessments. I’m more confident in my own abilities to adapt in this fast paced world; I’m …
Reply to @scott:
Hi Scott,
I am old enough to remember my parents saving paper to later sell, and an unmarried uncle who shared our apartment bringing bags of groceries home as partial payment for work at the Civilian Conservation Corp during the…
Hi Flack,
I fully anticipated a reply from you. You are a persistent defender of market timing. That’s okay by me since you are following your own market Gods or Demons, perspective dependent.
I’m puzzled by why you elected to post in the Fund D…
Reply to @catch22:
Hi Catch,
Thank you for your expansive and comprehensive reply to my question. It was very thoughtful and thought provoking.
I particularly enjoyed your sports analogies. Like all analogies they fail in detail, but they ofte…
Reply to @catch22:
Hi Catch,
Wow, that’s a gutsy forecast for the 2012 equity market returns. It certainly is running against the winds of history.
You modestly claim that it is a guesstimate. If it is solely a guess, it is better characterized…
Reply to @catch22:
Hi Catch,
In your response to Ginko, I noticed that you are studying charting techniques.
Please be cautious when exploring this attractive, but often dangerous dragon. It is a commonly used tool that has many loyal believers,…
Hi Old_Joe,
Thanks for your note referencing weather forecasting and Chaos Theory.
I surely am NOT an expert on Chaos Theory and do not understand much of the work and findings in that difficult arena. But I do appreciate its goal to unravel the …
Reply to @catch22:
Hi Catch,
Thanks for your note.
You focus on my comment that “In the complex and chaotic marketplace, human behavioral instincts destroy carefully crafted statistical models.” Allow me to expand on this thought.
All folks mir…
Hi Catch, Hi Scott,
Thank you for your well crafted and insightful perspectives. I really do respect them.
My original submittal advocated ignoring daily market perturbations. That is obviously bad advice if the investor is a day-trader whose pe…
Hi Guys,
Although I am saddened by the paucity of replies which negate any meaningful statistical analysis, I do extend my hardy thanks to those MFO members (one at this point) who did offer their Final Four. I appreciate your effort.
As promised…
Hi Guys,
Some of the most prescient aphorisms come from anonymous sources. One of my favorites from an investing perspective is “If you can’t take the sting, don’t reach for the honey”. This saying was extracted from Mark Skausen’s 2011 book titl…
Reply to @Flack:
Hi Flack,
Thanks for your reply. However, I’m not sure I want to thank you for your numerous questions, all pertinent, but some of which require considerable effort for a full response.
I have not convinced myself that it is wo…
Hi Guys,
I am not sure why the intense interest in John Bogle’s portfolio. He has never been considered an especially astute investor although he is an acknowledged financial expert. Fully understanding financial matters and translating that unde…
Reply to @Flack:
Hi Flack,
Thank you for reading and taking time from your busy schedule to respond to my brief posting.
I posted the CXO study simply to inform and/or update members of the MFO board. Sell in May studies have been reported for d…
Reply to @scott:
Hi Scott,
Thank you for your information packed reply to my WSJ article reference on Hedge Fund-lite mutual fund alternatives. You certainly have studied mutual fund options in this arena. I’m sure many MFO participants will ben…
Reply to @David_Snowball:
Thank you for the heads-up with regard to Dan Kahneman's new book. Since Kahneman is usually credited with being one of the godfathers of the behavioral science revolution, I too suspect it will delve deeper into the thin…
Hi Old Joe,
Although in your post title you emphasized a wealth discussion, your text clearly commingles the quest for a wealth discussion with a money historical perspective and a targeted objective to secure some insights about the profiles abou…
Hi Guys,
Thank you all for reading my post. One further word before I leave for a month.
I too, like Rono, mostly chase the Austrian campfire. And like Rono (heavens, this is sounding like an unlikely love fest), I consider Economics a worthwhil…
Hi Guys,
Your comments were truly encouraged and welcomed. While I didn’t agree with some of your postings, I fully recognize their value at expanding and balancing the debate on this raging economic theory battlefield. I appreciate and commend y…
Reply to @bee:
Hi Bee,
Thanks for the Link. I had seen it several years ago and had forgotten its existence. Thank you for the nudge. I watched it again. It’s a winner; great stuff.
I always marvel at the inventiveness and imagination of thes…
Hi Greg,
Thanks for the reference. I immensely enjoyed it. You probably could have predicted that.
I fully concur with the observation that misaligned incentives embolden poor forecasting. Some reward/penalty function should be attached to each…
I suspect that no mention has been made with regard to replacing Harry Lange with some other Fidelity superstar is because, from the perspective of MFO Forum participants, that overdue substitution is a non-event. Given its dismal record, Fidelity'…
Hi Guys,
Thank you all for your extensive and varied replies. Each of these, in their own way, enhanced and enlarged the topic.
"Why" an investment decision is made is more vital to understanding and learning than "what" it exactly is. That expl…
Hi Flack,
Thank you for doing the calculations and reporting on the S&P 500 returns using a monthly update version of the 200-day Simple Moving Average technique. Indeed, it is an easy approach to implement.
I especially like it that you took…
Reply to @scott:
Hi Scott,
Thanks for participating on this topic.
Based on your submittal, I suppose you subscribe to the axiom that if you don’t agree with the message, attack the messenger.
According to your assessment, I am a buy-and-hold g…
Reply to @randynevin:
Hi Randy,
Thank you for participating in this TA discussion.
Your carefully crafted response was in the spirit pf my original posting. Thanks for honestly presenting both the merits and the shortfalls of the TA method that…
Reply to @Flack:
Hi Flack,
Thank you so much for reading and responding to my posting.
Somehow I sense that you and I do not share a common ground on the merits and shortcomings of investment Technical Analysis (TA).
There’s absolutely nothing …
