Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
For those scoring at home, we discussed this piece earlier:
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/126931/#Comment_126931
There’s good thoughts in the piece and the MFO discussion. Surprisingly, I don’t see a Boglehead discus…
I thought it was despicable when, 4 years ago, people were diagnosing Trump as having a mental illness and I find it equally despicable that the Trump enthusiasts are now projecting those same ailments onto Biden. It appears to me that almost every…
Remember when they used to tell us how Harvard had huge acreage of managed Timber? Oh yea, that’s something I can replicate. But here from Barron’s - keep it simple:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/ivy-league-endowments-1538530379
“The Yale mo…
No sells by me - but I’ve been cash heavy since selling our house, waiting for Dr Hussman to turn bullish. (That’s an exaggeration). I have always been risk adverse. I did put some money in a 529 near the bottom - but thought there would be plenty o…
I hadn’t seen Doonesbury in forever. A quick google led me here to Sunday’s strip:
https://twitter.com/dan_londe/status/1272909761487548417?s=21
(I assume last Sunday, could be a couple of weeks old).
How could they have been to corrupt to collud…
I watched the clip before reading it was 7 years old. I thought it might be soon to be released.
I am currently reading “Unmaking the Presidency” - so far they have only touched on the smaller stuff but it is eye opening.
OK, thanks - I see that these charting tools do assume reinvested dividends. And, yes, BBN has offered some good opportunities to rebalance. I probably didn’t act on them. While it is king of the %SD, you do need to compare it to the other HY Munis…
Interesting -
“ The charts suggest it’s time to short bonds. I'm adding ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) to my positions. It’s an inverse ETF to TLT (another ETF that tracks long term U.S. government bonds).”.
Hey Hank!
I see a hard copy of Barron’s most weeks - it has a lot of good stuff. I agree on Forsyth, I have also seen his stuff on Apple News and linked it here.
I agree I don’t have enough time to read all I want - but that causes me to spend way…
Is this the liberal media of which you speak? Because they are reporting 40 million unemployed.
https://www.oann.com/new-wave-of-u-s-layoffs-feared-as-coronavirus-pain-deepens/
“ Last week’s filings would raise the number of people who filed clai…
From the article (the gains, due to reopening still stand but that in addition to the May number being wrong the March and April unemployment rates were also underreported)
“ This problem started in March when there was a big jump in people claimin…
Just to reemphasize, here’s what the BLS report says:
“ | If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to "other |
| reasons" (over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical May) had |
| been cla…
Seems like we’re talking the difference between a value shop and a growth shop. If you look at this chart and pull back the start to 3/2009 you can see that Dodge and Cox has done as well or better than the other value managers. Value wasn’t the rig…
Thanks Graust! The new M-star chart is tough to deal with. I always use Stockcharts but it’s not clear to me that they include distributions.
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?BBN,FSITX,FTBFX,GWMEX,TSIIX,ANBEX
Maybe the only true way i…
Looks like ANBEX responded amazingly at the end of February, beginning of March. I hold the Fidelity multi-sector bond FADMX, it did not fair well. Similar to GWMEX.
Seems to me It’s hard to get apples to apples comparisons. I hold BBN and would …
Howdy folks,
Anyone else feel like we're on the Titanic? I simply cannot fathom the stock market evaluations. ...
I see casinos stocks climb and everyone knows they won't be profitable for at least 12 to 18 months . . . if then. Cruise lines? …
Rono is spot on! Thanks also to Bee for the link. I especially like when long articles come with a Audm read along (I probably have ADD). Here’s another quote:
“ What we are witnessing in the American response to the crisis, more than the flame-o…
From the article - “ A study in Japan found that the risk of infection indoors is almost 19 times higher than outdoors. Some situations may be particularly risky. Meatpacking plants are likely vulnerable because many people work closely together in…
In my opinion, all businesses should be allowed to OPEN. If people are not comfortable, they will not go. That's end of the story.
The problem with this lone rider plan is that otherwise healthy people can go to bars & restaurants, become infec…
Both spouse and I have inherited IRAs. I have stopped the RMD for mine. (Thanks for reminding me to make a note in her calendar).
I had intended to fund a HSA with that RMD. Now I plan to do that next year.
I also want to point out that in the very first line, Kate gets the 4% rule wrong - “ On its face, the "4% rule" is pretty straightforward: Retirees withdraw 4% of their portfolio value every year and avoid the risk of outliving their money.”. This…
Can we all agree that Jill Fopiano is making planning sound overly complicated so you will think you need to hire her?
“ "We have never felt that the standard 4% withdrawal rule was particularly relevant," says Jill Fopiano, president and CEO at O'…
Marks has penned a new commentary. It is a worthwhile read - however I think this one makes FD1000’s point. Now I need to read what Giroux said.
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/uncertainty.pdf
Bottom line from the comme…
Note to Puddnhead - I used to listen to Financial Sense Newshour a lot and The Fourth Turning got a lot of air time. That was long ago. https://www.financialsense.com/contributors/james-quinn/the-fourth-turning-skies-darkening
I should say that FS…
Thanks JohnN. I can’t believe stocks are cheap, what will be the P/E when there is no E? But I seem to have been less than enthusiastic about the equities for years.
From the link in the OP, Just to reemphasize, Nomura’s managing director, cross-…
Thanks for this info. I need to work through the app David linked. I imagine it’s similar to https://www.firecalc.com/
I like the idea of using the rates the IRS uses for RMDs - Which is discussed here:
https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Variable_perc…
I checked a few - YTD
FFRHX -9.97% (rates aren’t rising)
VWEHX -7.77% High yield
CIOZX -11.27%
NEFZX -11.22% ( listed as multi sector, someone didn’t get the memo)
Multi sector funds
FADMX -6.1%
PONAX -6.37%
NSTLX -6.46%
Thanks for the post davfor. John is probably right that no one knows - after all, who sold in January when Wuhan was going into lockdown? That being said, you look for confirming opinions and he confirms mine. here’s his investment advice from the…
I’d love to see the details! Low volatility & dividend aristocrats beat the S&P 500 by 2:1? Obviously, significant. And mid caps & small caps also significantly beat the S&P 500? I guess it’s value & SCV that has done poorly. …
Interesting thoughts. I assume the big investment banks use models of this sort. I know Goldman Sachs has recently predicted a significant drop in GDP - from the attached:
“ The coronavirus pandemic will drag the US into a recession after a sharp …
One thing about Scott Burns is he has been singing the 2 fund portfolio for years. See here from 2006 - https://scottburns.com/four-milestones-for-successful-investing/. My impression is that the Boglehead philosophy is now a 2 fund portfolio - but…
