Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Reply to @Maurice:
To reinforce your point to perhaps hypothetical anonymous-or-bust hold-outs: It is easy enough to accomplish almost the same degree of protection by creating a new gmail account with an email address like onlyforusewithmymfo…
I note with wry amusement that I clicked on Fund discussions to find, you know, fund discussions. And then I found this thread, mostly focused on the desire to purge the site of off-topic discussions. This meta-discussion of off-topic discussions,…
Cathy:
Just signed in after a hiatus of my own. I am very sorry to hear about your loss.
You are having to deal with formidable complexities. It looks like you have had lots of good advice already. It also sounds like you have in place the te…
So your conclusion is...?
In recent years, I have been splitting my bond investing bets between managed funds and indexed strategies. I am not sure these observations will lead me to just abandon ship with the managed funds altogether just yet. …
Reply to @Old_Joe: Thanks for bringing back to mind what a usability miracle the original Mac was. It looks clunky now in a picture side-by-side with the photos of the current generation of gorgeous Apple products. But it was an amazing leap for…
Cathy:
The portfolio's standard deviation cannot be properly be determined by a weighted average of the current investment's standard deviations. If it seemed worthwhile, I believe the right way to go would be to reconstruct the daily values of th…
I don't think anyone has ever been able to diagnose how he has been so successful. This fund has been a rulebreaker forever. My hope (as a long-term shareholder) is that with so many holdings, the success can be partially attributed to strong ana…
You may want to dig up the history of management changes from the old documentation so you can see if its pre-Cuggino management troubles correlated at all with performance issues.
David Snowball wrote in 2008:
"The Permanent Portfolio fund is a s…
Nath: You talk about "50 year old man" like you feel old or something. Just wait until you're actually there... Keep well, and try to feel your (youthful) age. - gfb
bnath:
Lots of good responses already.
First off, I want to say we all "feel your pain". Yes it is hard to choose a strategy now, and I would bet most of us are sympathetic to the desire to pick something safe and just let it be. The problem i…
I see the appeal of the four sleeves. What I don't find appealing is paying substantial additional expenses for tactical allocation "based on the risk/reward prospects of each strategy at the time". If I am buying into a portfolio of (I hope) non-…
Old Joe:
I think the Farrell column is pretty sloppy stuff. The argument seems to be "1. Pundits pumped up the markets with overoptimistic hype before the 1929 crash and before the dotcom and mortgage finance bubbles burst. 2. Pundits are pump…
Is it possible that the Eurozone could blow apart as a result of the failure to solve the problems of the PIGS? Sure. Do I think anyone can make a valid prediction about this, and the resulting effects on the markets? No.
The interesting story…
MJG:
I appreciate your recent expositions. I realize now that I have tacitly assumed that you had in place a rigorous, entirely quantitative system for selecting investments and monitoring your portfolio -- a one man financial engineering approach…
I don't know this fund real well. But:
1. Are you taking into account the income distribution on June 14? (See http://www.osterweis.com/default.asp?P=518012&S=518015)
2. Remember that the median credit quality on the fixed income portfolio…
If you are interested in Fidelity NTF funds, Manning & Napier Pro-Blend Moderate Term (EXBAX) is worth a look. It's hard to beat Vanguard Wellington, but this one may give you a smoother ride for similar overall returns.
For example: the holdings listed for Harbor Bond at http://www.harborfunds.com/holdings-2014.htm#block8834 show that Lehman doesn't currently contribute very much to current NAV, so the losses have mostly been absorbed. I realize the interest come…
I also missed the start of this discussion. A quick Google search for Teresa Ghilarducci turns up a rich set of links, mostly from a few years ago, but some more recent, characterizing her as the "most dangerous woman in America". Basically, she c…
MJG:
I was quite astonished to read this posting, having seen you frequently refer us to the skeptical analyses of market guru predictions at the cxoadvisory.com web site. I believe you are not claiming to be presenting a predictive model, but ins…
Thanks to all who commented.
bee: I think I will discuss the portfolio construction in a separate thread. There are some fairly specific personal circumstances that have influenced my decision-making. I am still working on how to talk about the …
Skipper:
1) Two recent threads started by MJG have generated rich discussion on the subject of robust 50/50 portfolios constructed from two or three conservative or moderate allocation funds. One of the take-home points I get from that is you ca…
In microcosm, here is an one example of what a small city in deep financial trouble has done to try to responsibly dig its way out. As should not surprise anyone, there is a nice business for financial work-out consultants.
From Planet Money:
htt…
Cathy:
You have already elicited a lot of high-quality, quite specific feedback upon which I am unlikely to improve.
I will humbly suggest a return to a "forest view" for a moment. If I understand your comments here correctly, you are mostly talk…
I find these discussions interesting, but a bit hard to interpret.
I think when people describe their relative positions, compared to their own prior (and perhaps expected future) stances, it is most informative.
I say this because when trying t…
Don't be sorry about posting! Besides the comments about the changes in forum format, I have had the sense that folks have been complaining that the tone of postings at MFO have not been "in your face" enough. You piqued our interest, for sure. …
So... I wanted to do some quick research and bat this one down. But this is all a bit murky, I find. One thing that is not murky is that deepcapture.com is a dubious source. (Read their pieces on other topics; read folks' reviews of the site.) …
Does anyone here use this fund? This fund has been an intriguing choice for a while. However, I've never been able to figure out how I would fit it into a portfolio. It doesn't seem quite exciting enough for mad money (though 50+% down in 2008 no…
Maurice:
VINEX is actively managed by a team from Schroeder's and a second team from Wellington currently managing a relatively small portion of the fund. The addition of the team from Wellington in 2010 might now be seen as a mild argument agai…
accipiter:
A bit of a "rantback":
I believe your rather civil, well-intentioned "rant" in defense of the overburdened, underbudgeted MFO team is unnecessary.
1. We all know this is being put together on a shoestring, and largely with David's fre…
Congratulations on your new family member. I salute you for looking ahead to college savings. I recommend:
1) You think of this investment task as initiating construction of a portfolio. Choice of fund should be subordinated to a plan for asse…
Investing:
Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor, Collins Business Essentials Edition with commentaries by Jason Zweig and Preface and Appendix by Warren Buffett.
This book is available in a variety of flavors. I found that this edition wit…
Following David's thought of smaller and growthier, consider:
Artisan International Small Cap (ARTJX) if you are able to get into it -- a venerable choice with a strong long-term record. It is unclear to me what effect, if any, the planned IPO by …
I came to Fundalarm discussions for the content. I found its format dense, opaque and frustrating at first, not to mention the heavy use of shorthand abbreviations and insider references. I found myself willing to learn my way around because the c…
John:
I appreciate this adaptation in your method of posting links. The subject line gives a hint that this is a post of links to suggested reading.
gfb
David:
This is an example of why we followed you here. I have held Matthews Asian Growth and Income from before Mr. Foster managed the fund; I have felt little reason to panic about his departure. Still, he did a solid job at Matthews. It is g…