Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
His theories seem to be well grounded in what's actually going on in the real world, and I respect his efforts to anticipate what's going on, but unfortunately in this arena there's just so many unforeseen variables that I don't think that any econo…
From the same WSJ Article. Photo of economist and former U.K. central banker Charles Goodhart
who in March 2020 predicted inflation of 5-10% post pandemic.
Looks believable to me.
+1 Thanks for the history @Old_Joe. I didn’t know (or remember) how convoluted the whole process had been. Guess we’re fortunate to be where we are. Yes - the new folks at the helm need and deserve everyone’s support.
And the term “Mark Twain” originally referred to a river depth of 2 fathoms (12 feet) which was considered minimally safe depth for a riverboat to operate in. BTW - no problem with those photos here.
10,000 feet down is hard to fathom. Fishing Lake Michigan for trout & salmon years ago we’d occassionally get as deep as 150 feet using lead weighted downriggers. These had a lead ball 10 - 12 pounds in weight attached with a “trip” mechanism …
Most in my neighborhood heat with propane. Nat gas just came in, but having it “piped” to homes is expensive. A lot of screaming here about the cost of heating this winter. Looks like petro-based heating costs are probably up more than 35% over pre…
No argument with any of the above. Just trying to clarify why there are two categories. I’m as guilty as anyone of trespassing beyond the dividing line - however it is defined. I think not having the OT section surface as one legitimate category wh…
”There will be those who will disagree with a category posting. I always expect that someone here should state their difference of opinion about a topic. But, I also expect proper manners in any debate, not a rant.”
Agree. And I’m not aware of any r…
@hank: our 2017 Accord has no volume knob for the sound system, however our 2019 Odyssey does. I heard that Honda owners complained about no old-fashioned volume control and the company responded. How about your Accord?
Yes, In reading up on the Acc…
Well, pour yourself a tall one!
I haven’t been a serious player in commodities for a long time. RIO was up slightly today (to my surprise) and my two precious metals miners were slightly up - even though gold fell about 3%. Gold got hit a lot har…
You would have done very well today
I assume you mean shorting oil. Yes, it was off 10% at last look.
Shorting is fraught with danger. I suppose a tech savvy player would be able to employ some type of stops to limit damage. But, in theory, your…
Generally agree. Depends what you consider a pullback. I’d prefer 30% or more. But Price’s TRBCX - a pretty good fund - was off more than 23% YTD as of yesterday. Might qualify for a long term investor. Likely to bounce today, however.
If you li…
A little more from @Devo’s linked WSJ article:
“He argued that the low inflation since the 1990s wasn’t so much the result of astute central-bank policies, but rather the addition of hundreds of millions of inexpensive Chinese and Eastern European …
I know folks who love those big older models for longer trips. Lincolns, Mercurys, Oldsmobiles from the 70s & 80s. Can’t beat the ride.
Maybe I’m elitist. But my first foreign job - a 2018 Honda Accord - has me leaning that way for another wh…
You’re fast OJ! I had “elitist” in there momentarily & knocked it out revising.
Nice commentary on the work strata. The “elitists” would be without air conditioning, water or toilets without the skill-set and knowledge of those “lower” down.
…
Hmm …?
Does “EAP” mean those of us who frequent the “off topic” section? Could be. Not exactly a “beehive” of activity here. And I noted a disparaging comment by someone over on the “topical” side.
@davidrmoran said: “Why are you selling?
Basically - Because I can. After over 30 years with most assets held directly at TRP, I moved to a full service brokerage last summer. Now I have dozens of “alternative” type funds from which to select.…
“The strategies currently available to the managers include Macro and Absolute Return; Fixed Income Absolute Return; Equity Research Long/Short; Quantitative Equity Long/Short; Volatility Relative Value; Style Premia; Dynamic Global FX; Dynamic Cred…
@Sven, Thanks for sharing. Not down that much - but after today … who knows? What a bloody mess. I track DKNG, but have resisted getting back in. Off almost 13% today down to $18.00. Here’s a stock that a year ago was around $75.00. My p/m miners a…
I knew I bought that hybrid Honda Accord for some reason in 2018. Plus - I hear it’s hard to buy any car at present time. Many dealers charging over sticker if you can even locate one.
Gold up. Silver down. Markets in turmoil.
@Sven said “What about those who own EM local currency bond funds, and will those Russian debt goes to zero?” From the same issue of The Wall Street Journal, March 4
Article: “Some Russian Bond Trading Defrosts as Investors Hunt for Deals”
Exce…
TRP Emerging Europe (TREMX) is down -86.24% YTD. 67.61% of assets in Russian stocks. Looks like you can still purchase shares if one has an inkling to do so. Schwab is only allowing redemptions.
Lipper doesn’t show that. But TRP’s own website does.…
“Huh, somehow I missed that. When exactly did Canada become a dictatorship?”
@Mark - It’s called alternate reality. You put a headset on or something like that, than you turn some dials, etc. Brings up whatever view of the world you want to believ…
Holly ****
Off another .72% today. That puts its year-over-year loss at 8%. Anybody know what’s going on at TRP? Maybe somebody should call them? I thought this was supposed to be a “defensive” fund.
I’ve been a defender of this fund in the past. …
Catch22 - Re: This list again …”
“Simplicity, simplicity, simplicity! I say, let your affairs be as two or three, and not a hundred or a thousand; instead of a million count half a dozen, and keep your accounts on your thumbnail.”
Henry David Tho…
Interesting that GMO has (or had) 2 equity funds with north of 10% in Russia.
Also, PRELX (TRP) is listed with a 6.1% weighting in Russia among bond funds, but has held up substantially better this year than Price’s normally tamer (hedged) EM bond …
Looks like a “risk off” day shaping up Friday. Flight to bonds and, to a lesser extent, commodities. Japan’s down sharply overnight. U.S. futures down only moderately just prior to midnight.
Oh yeah. Agree with the others - war and nuclear pla…
I was wondering if I should post this in “Off Topic” - but glad to see @Catch22 placed it here.
Bloomberg just reported “no radiation leak”. Though, sounds a bit premature. These babies generally require water for cooling. And there’s usually lo…
Hi Derf,
With about 22 holdings (mainly funds) I’ve more than enough. Only own 3 stocks: RIO, Y, WPM. The first 2 are pretty conservative companies with strong balance sheets. As far as I know, so is the third. So I sleep well and pay little heed t…
Thank you @rono for the informative & comprehensive discussion.
Here’s where I’m having a problem. I don’t generally subscribe to or like conspiracy theories … however the fact that Ukraine became entwined in the first Trump impeachment trial h…
I’ll toss out a couple appetizing candidates if anyone is inclined to take a dunking. ARKK is off 48.9% year over year and down a bit over 4% today. DKNG must be off something like 70% year over year and is a couple bucks over it’s recent bottom a…
Thanks for the thoughts @Derf
I was mostly concerned with the bond fund outflows. Actually, they slowed a bit in the last reporting week compared to early in the year. One can only speculate; but ISTM all the talk by Fed officials about hiking the…
I’ve often thought of buying one - particularly something investing in a particular facet or blend of fixed income. Occasionally there’ll be a write up in the WSJ, Barron’s, etc. on some better ones. Sometimes they sell for a discount to book value …
If in fact he is facing internal opposition, he surely wouldn't want to suggest that to the outside world. I don't put much credence in that particular theory.
I’d agree.
Alternative theory - All the generals who’d normally be seated at the table…
One commentator on PBS (I get the Chicago outlet) suggested the photo’s a sign he’s facing opposition / push-back to the war from his closest advisors and is disregarding them. They seemed to have some corroboration to that effect.
I like LB’s sugg…
Will consume Buffet’s entire letter eventually (because I truly enjoy financial writing). But was motivated here to quick-read a couple articles. Sounds like he’s “wary” of valuations.
A quote from the letter:
“Deceptive 'adjustments' to earnin…
The two best jobs that I had in my life were four years with the Coast Guard and twenty-something years supporting San Francisco's public safety radio systems.
Were you still working at 91 like Buffett, OJ?
And, nice to see Queen Elizabeth II a…
