Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
“Where are the adults at the Fed, White House and Treasury?”
@Baseball_Fan -
Unfortunately, there’s little an individual investor can do to influence high level regulators or large institutional investors. IMHO, the best bet is to be aware of tr…
“ … I used to subscribed to it for over quite awhile until the Great Recession where I found Barrons completely missed several signs leading to the great decline.”
I’d concur with @Sven that Barron’s is not a particularly good barometer / predict…
@MikeM -
Personally I don’t care for online editions of various publications like Barron’s or the WP. Not sure why - but they seem to be laid out more like a website - “links on top of links.” In addition, I had a bad experience many years ago g…
Jack Hough writing in this week’s Barron’s (November 22 issue):
“Gold is an inflation hedge, but only reputationally, not statistically. It lost money during bouts of elevated inflation from 1980 to 1984, and again from 1988 to 1991.”
(Above does …
Yogi,
Your $5 news stand price seemed way too low. So I checked. You are correct. Just $5 an issue for the paper edition. What bargain! For me it has paid for itself many times over during the past year. (To be perfectly accurate here, I subscri…
“As you can see in the chart below, Dumb Money Confidence has surged … ”
They’re apparently referencing a chart published a few days earlier. Here is the Schwab article from November 15 which contains the referenced chart.
No one (including myself, Mr. Grantham, Dodge & Cox or T Rowe Price) is offering investment advice.
Grantham may be exercising a time honored persuasive technique.
“Grantham for all his long term predictions does not invest his funds in line with his predictions.“
A legitimate point. But I don’t invest according to my own predictions either. Does anyone?
Prediction does not = certainty. So some humility as …
@sma3 - Thanks for posting the Bloomberg interview. Had forgotten I’d viewed it recently.
Yeah - Hussman’s a perma-bear. Somehow think Grantham’s a little sharper. GMO must have some good supporting talent & research capability. A bit more he…
+1 @MikeM
Thanks for those stats. I realize he’s been early / wrong / or whatever for quite a while.
To dump some fuel on the fire here, the new EV truck maker, Rivian, that went public about a week ago now has a market cap greater than that of …
“A pity that this guy has to be hocking his investment program around Grantham's advice.”
- Agree.
Grantham’s emphasis on non - U.S. equities is intriguing. Purely by chance the only 3 stocks I hold are RIO (Australia) NGLOY (Great Britain) WP…
Not to disagree profusely. But spend 30 minutes in a grocery store. Check out the meat prices. (I suppose one can alway eat cake.)
Meatflation
Excerpt -“Amid a higher than expected 6.2% increase in consumer prices in October compared to the same…
:) Not sure where I am …
Likely 40 / 30 / 30 Equity / Bond / Other
(or something along those lines)
Re Electronic online gambling in Michigan - Markets are so exciting haven’t even bothered to watch a BB game or wager on anything.
Re DFKG / …
Might boil down to whichever they think may “goose” the equity markets more (not that they need goosing). Conventional wisdom would say that’s Brainard, who’s perceived as more liberal.
Powell can’t be happy to have been left hanging in the wind fo…
@carew388 - Makes some sense …
But - if / when short rates are raised by the Fed, the economy may slow thereby causing the longer end of the yield curve to fall (and bond prices to rise). Not saying go long. Just saying that’s a possibility.
@Catch22 - Thanks. You’ve covered the bases well. And you were extremely prescient (and correct) about the value of bonds for many years when I and others here were doubters! Credit to you!
Any affinity I may hold for bonds today relates only to…
Couple thoughts. Not my expertise.
- If I were very young and saving for 25+ years out, a good actively managed time tested global fund is what I’d use. Heck, with a 25-35 year time horizon until even the first withdrawal, that’s about all I’d us…
It’s hard for investors these days to look out 6 months to a year. Everything I can glean from former fed officials interviewed on Bloomberg says we’re looking at a 2-4% Fed rate by late ‘22. With “high yield” now yielding something north of 4%, t…
@Catch22 - Thanks for the chart. As you know, TAIL isn’t designed to make money over longer periods. The manager expects negative returns most years. So, not sure what to compare it to in a day and age when stocks only go up.
Others I’ve looked at…
Thanks @sma3
I’ve considered these type of “fringe” investments as potential speculative / timing tools. But the thought of maintaining a constant weighting is most interesting. With interest rates so low, bonds no longer offer the downside prote…
“Everybody Ought to be Rich” - by John J. Raskov
Article - Ladies Home Journal (1929)
“Mere saving is closely akin to the socialist policy of dividing and likewise runs up against the same objection that there is not enough around to save. The sa…
Re TAIL (etf)
I’ve come upon a better description of the strategy. In particular, the fund (TAIL) relies on intermediate, rather than long term treasuries (as I earlier stated) for ballast, while purchasing put options. The manager explains that u…
@BenWP - Yes, sounds like you & I have same plan. I’ve found in the past that some seldom prescribed meds that cost $50 - $100 with that insurance plan can be had for approximately $10 - $15 if I use Good RX instead (at Meijers). So, I’m not t…
… for a month’s supply of Lisinipril, a drug we pay $1.75 for when we buy it at the local pharmacy. If the doctor orders a 90-day supply of the same drug, the pharmacy is required by the insurer to charge us $16. We go in every month because we hav…
“Free Kiplinger's Personal Finance at $1M level“
May I suggest that rather than sending your $1M to TRP, you simply subscribe to this questionably useful tabloid at Amazon?
e-Edition $11.88 yearly (99-cents per issue)
Print Edition $34.95 yearly …
“ There is a lot of fear mongering ….. Those are worthwhile discussions to have.”
Nicely put. Thanks for the detailed analysis @LewisBraham
I try to read as much of the popular financial press as I can - by no means a comprehensive amount. But wh…
A bit OT - But relates to generating income …
It’s a shame @Junkster doesn’t post any longer. Had a terrific amount of insight into junk bonds.
Personally, I exited Price’s PRHYX (which is a good fund) more than a decade ago after they closed it …
I happened to listen to the hour long interview (NPR?) yesterday while on a 5-hour drive home from the airport in drenching rain. Not a topic I’d normally be interested in. However, the interview was exceedingly well done. Probably a good lesson in…
Probably none of us think about those real long-shot “black swan” events - be it a multi-year market collapse, our car being totaled on the interstate while we’re in it, or our home being destroyed. (Fortunately, the latter two can be insured agai…
Not directly related ... But the “talking heads” this morning (Bloomberg) appear to be on steroids. Or maybe caffeine overdose? “Primal screaming” cited by one re yesterday’s trading. LOL
What happened yesterday?
- 30 year treasury bond came t…
Took a second look. Actually, PK’s pointing out that we tend to view our own situation more positively than that of the general public on a lot of issues. In this case, he looks at perceptions of economic well being. Excellent point. I heard some…
@JD_co & @MikeM
Thanks for the pointers. Will check them out. TAIL gained over 20% in Qtr. 1 2020. (Guess that met the definition of a collapse.). I’ve had it 2-3 weeks and it looked rock steady. But didn’t hold up well today.
Compared to the…
John Doe Citizen Is apt to cite headline inflation along with his own recent personal shopping experience as signs of financial distress. Obviously, that’s not the whole picture.
I suspect that some of us “oldsters” who grew up with inflation and w…
... If you want to add to the list.....you're welcome to do so.
Am visiting Hilton Head Island, SC. There’s a very limited supply / variety of canned beer here - especially the 16 oz size. Sign in local Kroger: “Limited selection of canned beer …
The Fed released its 6-month risk assessment yesterday. Here’s a short excerpt from the story in today’s (11/9) Wall Street Journal. The note on some types of money market mutual funds / cash management vehicles / bond and bank loan mutual funds i…
Barron’s is exceptional in the latest (Nov.7) issue. Several good articles touch on this overall theme. (And I’ve posted the cover art)
- One writer makes the distinction between “market peaks” and asset “bubbles.” He thinks what we’re witnessing …
