Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
@stayCalm -
Good luck. Let me know if you find the perfect hedge. I learned long ago that betting on both sides of a sports event (hoping you can get out of one position early) tends to be a loosing proposition. Mainly because there’s associated ex…
I’m only interested in what her fund owns and how its holdings fits in with overall market valuations, action. sentiment. Cathie is little consequence to me. However, I have a degree of empathy for anyone down on their luck - even when the problem…
ARKK was actually positive (up a few cents) today in the face of dismal market action. Well, Cathie’s remaining investors have something to rejoice over! And, I’m trying to read whatever I can from that unexpected result.
@carew388 - A class act…
Some of my allocation / alternative funds hold TIPS. I’m fine with that as a diversification strategy. The managers understand what they’re doing. I wouldn’t.
Note the comment by Sonai Desai in my recent Barron’s Roundtable post (Quotable Quotes.)
It’s second up from the bottom.
I’ve avoided owning TIPS (except for a few short duration ones) because they are misunderstood by many and I can’t get a good…
I’ve searched and searched the possibilities in recent months. Most I track haven’t done that well - yet, at least. For example SWAN, DFND, DRSK, NUSI, NLSAX
Of course, you can go “straight up” with something like BEARX or DOG. But it’s a gamble …
@MikeM - TMSRX was up .50% yesterday. Somewhere in that concoction there must be some exposure to the precious metals. That would help explain its slump throughout much of 2021 as well as the bump up yesterday when gold and silver were hot. (Miners …
It's like the weather in Iceland; wait 20 minutes and it will get much worse.
Mark Twain, "If you don't like the weather in New England, wait just a few minutes."
But it applies to Chicago as well where we got up this morning with 7 degF.
Iceland?…
Even Louis Rukeyser enjoyed gambling in his day!
Mr. Rukeyser lived on 4 acres in Greenwich, Conn., with his wife, Alexandra Gill, a British journalist whom he met while working in London for The Sun … He enjoyed gambling, wine and fine dining, and…
I was locked out of @msf’s link on my ipad, but accessed it on smaller screen iphone.
“Leakages come from three sources: cash-outs when participants change jobs, hardship withdrawals, and the failure to repay loans. The government has attempted to …
@MikeM - They don’t loose the match (as I recall from family member 30 years back). But they loose the potential invested growth of that $$ - albeit the “borrower” does pay interest on the loan. I don’t know how the government can force the indivi…
@hank
>> How many employees have wasted their company match 401 K money by “borrowing” against it in their working years or taking highly speculative market risks with it?
so ... what's the answer? do go on.
I don’t know. Thus the reason I …
Step carefully. It’s like walking on pins and needles now. Precious metals appeared to “blast off” today with silver leading the way. Most (p/m) mining companies / ETFs up 7-8% today. But could fall back to earth again.
First, I’m never on the s…
T. Rowe Price was the second largest holder of DKNG as of the end of September (behind Vanguard) https://www.holdingschannel.com/institutional/holders-of-dkng/
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Interesting snippet on Wood’s troubles https://seekingalpha.com/news/3788991-cathie-w…
We are inundated here in SE MI by TV ads for several online sports books. All of them appear to offer “risk free” wagers to the newcomer. The fine print at the end of the ad gives a phone number for those who have a problem with gambling.
Let’s not …
What are your thoughts on live odds ?
I figure it gives me a chance to lose more than once!
The odds change continuously on the DKNG app. That’s what makes it so entertaining. If a game is completely out of hand or near the end, the live odds / …
There’ll be a hellova bounce someday - if she has any investors left.
At this point Cathie’s biggest problem is the short sellers. Some big name investors / hedge funds have been shorting ARKK and there’s even an ETF (SARK) which targets her hold…
The selloff is from lofty levels. The “dippers” seem to be off-line again today. A few months ago I (teasingly) wagered one the Dow would dip to under 34,000 by end of 2021. I’d have lost that wager. But goes to show how high the markets remain.
…
He looks a bit like Trump. And espouses a lot of the same right wing agenda. But at least (unlike the other) he seems to enjoy a good drink and some social interaction. I have to admire that singular quality while despising his governance.
The Br…
I too notice that DODBX is up while the balanced index is down, +3.2% vs -2.3%. Will see next week if that is a typo reported.
It’s nuts. DODBX is heavy into banks which are benefitting from the spike in interest rates. Throw in an overweight in…
Some clarification re the “favorably mentioned” funds I listed in the OP.
All 8 funds were cited by Sonal Desai, CIO and portfolio manager Franklin Templeton Fixed Income. I should have noted that in the OP. Here’s the full text of her remarks re…
I think it’s just a strange period. A lot of things don’t make sense. My equity / balanced funds have been outperforming my multi-asset alternatives while the major stock indexes have been falling - a complete reversal of the norm. Alternatives ge…
I took the thread as a guessing game. Not intended to be serious. Suspect @Bobpa intends to pull this thread up in a year’s time and show us how far “off” our guesses are.
I’ll go farther and suggest there’s a certain amount of guessing involve…
@Thanks @Edmond for the insights on CPREX. I noted that one of the roundtable participants mentioned it favorably - that’s all. 10 different participants. Some may have been tossing grenades. However, based on your description, I’ve decided not t…
Not a strategy. But I’ve uncovered a link to a trove of old Wall Street Week - With Louis Rukeyser shows which, of course, aired on PBS from some time in the 70s until the 90s. We all learn in different ways. For me this was the best “primer” I ever…
@yogibearbull - Thanks for the links. Please know I welcome your more comprehensive Barron’s’ summaries, which received a number of positive responses last week. My occasional Barron’s posts are “hit & miss”, focusing on single articles.
Re cr…
Direct real estate fund CPREX is an interval-fund, a special type of unlisted fund that can be bought from brokers any time, but redemptions are limited.
For CPREX, that redemption is up to 5% per quarter at NAV (so, may take 20 quarters (5 years)…
Continuing on …
It was a good article in Barron’s (By @LewisBraham) :) as Yogi mentions. The details are rather complex and I don’t understand it as well as @msf (above).
Anyone invested in short duration corporates must have noticed something “s…
Re Marty Zweig
(See @Crash’s post below) Video clip is from October 16, 1987 “Wall Street Week”.
Zweig is the first panelist interviewed (6 minutes in). He’s warning about something bad about to happen in the markets. Three days later, Black Mo…
“Getting back on track, it's been said that you should not mix your political view with your investing approach. Very likely true but I wonder if we are entering a new era where you have to consider outside factors? Taxes going up, rates going up, …
#1 Precious metals and miners. Silver followed by gold.
#2 I think Cathie Wood’s ARKK will rebound later this year. But probably has farther to fall first. Finishing positive for the year would be a feat, as it’s 15% down after the first 2 weeks…
It is my fervent hope that at some future time Professor Snowball will author something (a separate thread or an add-on to this one) reflecting on the changes in investor behavior and attitudes he’s observed since taking the helm of MFO over a deca…
@MikeM - Thanks for responding.
Tinkering has gotten such a bad name, I’m inclined to avoid those threads in the future that ask “What recent moves have you made or considered?”
Maybe stay “in the closet” … :)
Most jobs do not require more than 2-3 yrs to be very good at it, provided one has aptitude for that job.
That’s the reason I deleted the line about some of us having 50+ years investment experience. I agree it’s a non-issue. Thanks for the note.
Let’s start with the assumption that the individual investor designs a portfolio (allocation model) that meets his needs and which he or she deems appropriate for his or her situation. He or she decides X amount will be allocated to fixed income; …
Pure timers are completely in or out based on signals.
On the other hand, tactical asset allocation (TAA) involves changing allocations suitably according to market assessments, and rebalancing simply adjusting to strategic/fixed asset allocation.…
Ritholtz has a way of boiling it down to some basics the average person can grasp. Not brilliant perhaps - but effective communicating some basic investment principles with a certain audience.
I’m not as opposed to timing as he seems to be. If all…
