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No moves. Just a serious case of whiplash. NSRGY lost over 5.5% yesterday down to $99.50 only to rise 6% today (as of 11:00 AM) to $105.50. My DCA cost was around $103. Nuts is all I can say.
It’s about to get even more interesting. There are numerous media reports that the fella whose brain was once eaten by a worm and who recently confessed to dumping a dead bear in Central Park will drop out and support the orange mop-head. haired c…
Raised my shorts a little higher yesterday and again today before markets turned south (SDS / PSQ).
Looking at this as a longer term hedge. Very small amount - well below 1% of portfolio.
Excellent topic @JD_co
As you realize, PRPFX wasn’t a recommendation. But I was struck by how close that +6.98% was to your hypothetical 7% goal. Like you, I prefer to diversify well beyond a single fund - no matter how good it is. The biggest p…
Would you settle for only 6.98%? That’s the annualized return of PRPFX over 15 years according to M*. If I were going to own just one fund, that would be my choice. Over that 15 year period the fund’s worst year was 2008 when it lost -8.36%. It…
If the popular vote was the true measuring stick for our US Presidential elections, Harris currently has a 3% lead. However, with our wonderful Electoral system being what it is, Donnie still has a shot at avoiding jail time.
This would make a g…
@hank, I would hesitate to call any duration bond fund as a "hedge." It is a volatility damper or ballast, but IMHO only cash or T-bills or a skilled execution of a puts/shorts/options strategy constitutes a true "hedge".
It’s probably age showing. …
+1 Yes. All the pundits (2 different networks) agree with you. For content and human appeal I agree. Touching how she built off her mother’s recent passing into broader themes. Very moving. A highly educated accomplished person in her own right,
…
Watching couple hours of Dem Convention (on Fox News) Tuesday. night. Some powerful speakers. Caught a bit of Duckworth. Strong. And Doug Emhoff was excellent. But Barack Obama stole the show. What an amazing orator. I don’t think I’ve witnessed…
Might be tracking his poll numbers …
Interesting price $21.65 / Paid $23 for a few shares of Flower Foods (FLO) this morning. Somewhat more appetizing.
Gold keeps rising....the typical gold bar (~400 troy ounces x $2,500 spot price) is now worth $1M.
Of course, I keep my bullion stacked in a little fortress formation in the middle of my concrete panic room. ...just kidding
I think it will get …
Bought a small slug of FLO - a small cap baked foods distributor. Have followed it for years. Has gone nowhere. Please don’t ask me why I bought it (but they do make delicious bread). Also - opened very small positions in PSQ (1 X inverse QQQ…
@MikeM - Thanks for sharing your take.
I speak only of short term hedges against equity volatility if that’s your game. Very few here mention hedging risk on their own. So, I assume it’s not important to most. Likely, they count on funds like JHQAX…
- For income, stability, safety the short to intermediate part of the curve (1-5 years) is easier to ride. Much less volatile. Not a lot of difference now in rates.
-There may be reasons to go further out if you believe rates will be lower than. P…
Apologies @bee. Will stop screwing around. ”Preparing for Rate Cuts”
- Well, the conventional wisdom is to lengthen out maturity bit. If I wanted to put a lot of $$ into bonds I’d aim for around 3 years maturity. Farther out is a gamble if inflat…
Ted’s no. Heard they used to drag race on Woodward. (Catch was probably over there). Saw a few shows at the Gem theatre. A few late afternoon / evening classes at WSU. Some time on the campus of OU as well. The small lakes in Oakland County wer…
Nice @Larry.
Never did any sailing on a real boat. But hoisted a few beers to The Sloop John B which came out in ‘68 while in college. The linked video is of poor quality, but sound is pretty good. May have been recorded surreptitiously. But grea…
”Negatives: below 4360 the fund is not protected as it is short the 4360 puts. You would be long 100% Large cap equities if the market was to head down 50%. (however unlikely a scenario it is in such a short time frame, it is a tail risk) …
Thanks…
Thanks. No offense taken @WABC. Yours was a good question. Perhaps better put as: “What are the relative risks / rewards of Tactical Allocation approaches vs Options Based approaches? What could go wrong with either?”
LCORX seems more “old schoo…
It's interesting--to me--to ponder the enthusiasm for this tactical-allocation fund on the ink-buying side of this site versus the disdain for option-based funds.
My initial comment was simply that I agreed with LCORX shorting the QQQ. Later, I att…
Thanks @Mark. Good article with some human interest. I always liked Manchin. Gosh - political rivals enjoying dinner, drinks and conversation together on someone’s boat? What an alien concept today. Good idea - except that if you went out alone …
Yes. 20% in a money market fund - Delaware Cash Reserves. The company is no longer existent.
Wasn’t all happy. Especially shopping for groceries in the big stores in the northern (Detroit) suburbs. There were always several employees moving up / …
A blast from the past.
Photo caption: ”President Ronald Reagan ordered Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volcker not to raise interest rates. It didn’t work.” (Barron’s, August 19)
Perfect @msf
It was getting late when I last posted and I overlooked the 60% cash figure @BaluBalu cited. As you stated, he was looking at the economic rather than classic view at Morningstar as I once did, For some reason the ”economic” view ap…
Pushing on a string may not be the best metaphor, but the Fed pushes on the short end of the curve. That end has a lot of room to go down without long end yields necessarily dropping.
Nice analysis. I thought the above bears repeating. While I’d …
”Curious why you are using March 31 portfolio info. M* shows June 30 info - 60% fixed income. Very different and dynamic as you mentioned. Seems like a tactical long-short allocation fund.”
The March 31 chart was posted only to allow comparisons w…
I had previously asked the owners of this fund to share a sentence or two about the role of this fund (and PRPFX) plays or would play in their portfolio, which would give us additional context. … I know @hank said why he is considering the fund. …
Thanks David. I’d read your initial post and was wondering if perhaps what I’d noticed last week was just a lag in M * reflecting the increased short position. FWIW - I’m attaching a copy LCORX’s allocation as reported in the semi-annual report, …
For some perspective - On Aug. 15, a 5% money market account would have returned 3.225% YTD. Somebody smarter than me would need to do the risk comparisons and determine whether holding LCR over those 7.5 months produced a sufficiently greater re…
LOL - Wish it were that simple! However, I have not held much cash for many years. I understand that the hypothetical, highly rumored, speculated and anticipated “Fed rate cut” would impact those who have been sitting in cash for the past year (…
