Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
TFC fell 17% today. Held some for a few months a year ago. Not a bad ride at the time. Whew!
Looked like a good bet at the time. Large growing regional bank. Headquartered in Charlotte NC. Conservatively run. Diversified investments. Hard to bel…
Thanks.
But I did get my three mile hike on the beach in first
+1
My hike today was on an ice & snow covered beach in balmy 27 degree temps with a 25 mph wind blowing. In a couple weeks I’ll be hiking on a much warmer beach, if only for a we…
OK - I stand corrected. Apparently it’s the still healthy banks that will make the depositors in the failed banks whole. And the FDIC has never run out of money from member banks and shall not this time. It would seem like a more transparent and si…
@Mark. Sorry - I can’t. But there’s some bizarre discrepancies today I don’t understand. A couple of my safest, most secure stocks are way down. One is a domestic conglomerate with concentration in media (-3%) and the other a U.S. consumers staple…
Thanks @LewisBraham - Didn’t intend to sound critical of anyone. I read Grantham quite a bit 12-18 months ago and learned a great deal from him. Helped prepare me for the onslaught later on in mid ‘22. It’s just that watching all the different gl…
I think in Grantham's case, given the models he uses, it's safe to assume he is referring to U.S. large caps, i.e., something akin to the S&P 500 or Russell 1000.
And pity those with such a narrow view of investing. Unless you’re 25 and DCA’ng i…
”stocks were in a speculative bubble and about to pop”
Statements like that tell you nothing. Which stocks? Where on the planet? A lot of time the general term “stocks” is applied to the U.S. S&P 500 Index. I’d have no problem believing Gran…
Anybody buying the dip ?
No. But I’m considering selling the pip. Depends what you own and what time of day it is. :)
I watch a lot and can’t recall such unstable markets in a short time. Probably occurred a few times in ‘07-‘08. Leadership tra…
+1 @MikeM
First day in a while I’m not tempted to do anything. Can you believe the 10-year is under 3.5% after having topped 4% only a week ago? If I heard correctly a few minutes ago, trading in Schwab temporarily halted due to volatility. Defi…
Well, Monday morning the word “Stategery” comes to mind. WTF should an investor do? At bedtime the Dow futures were + 450. Just before the open today they are - 250. Yields on 2 year notes have plummeted overnight. So have yields on the 10-year, …
@catch22. Thank you for the note on the 2008 TARP program. Yes - I seem to recollect the government recaptured that $$ along with interest. Let’s hope this new version (TARP 2?) operates in the same manner. There are scenarios one might envision wh…
@Old_Joe - I’m aware of the $250,000 automatic coverage and cap on FDIC insured deposits. My underlying point was that if the coverage of amounts beyond $250,000 were automatic than there would no longer be any need to distinguish between the $250…
Lots of reports (Bloomberg & elsewhere) that hedge fund manager Bill Ackman earlier today predicted an unraveling of the entire banking system starting Monday morning if the government didn’t step in and make whole the uninsured depositors at SV…
”A special assessment on banks will be implemented (as required by law) to cover Deposit Insurance Fund losses attributed to uninsured depositors.”
It sounds as if this (rescue package) is all pretty perfunctory - as it is provided for by law. And…
Schwab ran into problems in ‘08 with their “Yield Plus” ultra-short. Apparently they led investors to believe it was a safe, suitable substitute for a money market fund. It was down less than 4% when this article published in ‘08. But ISTM the fund…
Wow! That’s big! Thanks @rforno.
I figured the Fed would be involved behind the scenes. Maybe even the possibility of an emergency meeting + some additional action. But it’s unlikely. Could spook markets more and also confirm publicly how irratio…
I’d expect futures will open lower. Asia will be interesting too. It’s curious that there’s been nothing from the “Fed Open Mouth Committee” of late. Are they in their blackout period?
Re “painfully amusing … ” Spot-on @LewisBraham +1 Pogo couldn’t have said it better.
Gosh - The appearance of posts questioning the safety of cash & short-term deposits is also painfully amusing and sounds a lot like those that popped-up on …
March 10, '23
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-03-11/wall-street-week-full-show-03-10-2023
Ketterer at Causeway is so smart and engaging. But I just don't need small-cap volatility anymore. The other guest, Barbers Reinhard from Voya says…
Thanks @MikeM & @Sven for the additional thoughts. Glad the robo worked Mike. My guess is that consumers staples held up better than most of the market Friday. And, of course bonds ripped higher. @Derf - “deer in the headlights” - Yes, for sur…
@Hank. Have you ever tried a custom benchmark from however many component ETF’s you choose and assemble to your desired asset allocation. Then put in Portfolio Visualizer. I don’t think it will work for daily but by months it’s fine. Compare wit…
@LarryB - Sounds like you’ve done very well with your investments. Rather than judging performance I’m just trying to keep a handle on daily volatility. That’s the reason for watching 3 different funds - to average out the daily fluctuations. I th…
Thanks @Crash for sharing some of your winners. I noticed too that HY held up well today.
I just checked the average 2022 performance of those 3 (tracking) funds and came up with a dismal -14.25% combined return for 2022. A lot worse than I fared…
”Listening to all the pundits today - never a good thing - you would have thought it should have been much more of a bloodbath in the markets today outside of many of the banks.”
Yep. Must get boring repeating the market numbers day after day. I’…
True story. I was online earlier this week looking at JM bullion at bars of gold. Thinking about it, no action yet
RE JM Bullion Bars - They are pretty. Many, many years ago I owned a bunch. Silver’s very streaky. It was actually a silver miner …
I spent the morning ensuring all my assets were under the FDIC limit everywhere I had monies at several banks
Wouldn’t take me long at all … :) (But GNMAs are up)
@Baseball_Fan - If you trade today use your fastball. The plate is moving around a …
Is there any reason to think his message helped take your & my funds down today ?
We can wish …
@Derf - Check out how much the Fed has ratcheted up their overnight lending rate during the past 15 months.
I was taught in a college communications class more than a half century ago: ”A percept is a product.” / While we can mitigate the actual significance of the failure of SVB and put it into proper perspective, the perception out there among the i…
Bloomberg is reporting “SVB has “officially failed. FDIC has taken over.”
Things are wild. One p/c miner I have bounced 6% this morning. Has pulled back some, although a good couple days for miners. Used the morning’s chaos to add a bit to a st…
I am surprised this hasn’t gotten more discussion on the boards today.
Ditto. It came up on the Off-Topic board yesterday in a post by @Baseball_Fan - but I was the only one to make any remarks. - LINK
No - I don’t think this is anywhere near the e…
SCHW down 12.76% today. Part of a big sell off in financials. Re +.50% rate increase. Let’s wait and see. This Fed “toes the line” about as well as a drunken sailor. (Admittedly, they’ve been slip-sliding into the gutter lately.)
Thanks @Mark. It was kinda late. Will play with the airhead link later. I’ll cut FD some slack here. He’s not accustomed to posting threads with links.
“To try and fail is better than not having tried at all.”
I don’t know anything about this stock. But a 50% one-day drop in any stock is noteworthy. I hope you don’t own a lot of this. I’m waiting for things to start “breaking” as the Fed cranks up rates too high too fast. Just don’t know where the first …
Putting @Larry aside … :)
I’d like to chime in that we’re living through a very abnormal period of interest rates. And (not unlike black holes in space) this abnormality tends to distort everything else associated with it.
In a “normal” healthy …
@Sven - Thanks for chiming in. Valuable information. I tried to limit my remarks to the actual question as Larry worded it:
”Does this relative increase in intermediate term and a flattening of the shortest term (Money Market) rates have any mean…
A working link would be nice @Fd1000. Like flying blind here. But for you to conclude somebody’s opinion of where to best invest was “wrong” based on YTD return (in this case less than 2.5 months) is a bit rash. Hell, even here folks have longer…
