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davfor

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davfor
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  • Even 2.5 to 3% on the 10 year in 2020 would be quite low by historic standards. I just don't see what might cause rates to move substantially further than that to the upside in the near future.
  • @davidrmoran See the second link from my original post: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=qis
  • Interesting look at passive and active investment trends. I hadn't thought about pensions as being a form of passive investment.
  • @Edmond Yes. It is all rather chilling...1984 come to life (even extending itself into the corporate world). That is partly behind the Hong Kong protests...not wanting to succumb to being forced to live in a surveillance state. Another quote fr…
  • @Edmond Good question. I don't know why YTD info for 2019 has not been posted to the FRED graph. Yesterday was the first time I had looked at it since early in the year. Its my recollection updates have been posted during the year in the past.…
  • @Edmond Its also my sense that Romick was probably overselling the height of the global bubble at this point in time....particularly if we will continue to inhabit a near zero interest rate world for an extended period of time. But, that is just h…
  • Here is a recent comment by the Fundstrat Global Advisors managing partner and head of research Tom Lee. It reminded me of the comment @junkster recently made about the same topic. High yield corporate bond prices are surging, which is sending a bu…
    in raising cash Comment by davfor August 29
  • The article suggests that loss of oxygen is not a significant long term problem from an environmental perspective because Oxygen levels are primarily regulated by long-term geological forces, such as plate tectonics, not oxygen from photosynthesis B…
  • That 20% statistic sounded like it was probably over the top. Another point was also made in the Forbes article. This statistic may be more accurate and significant.... In fact, the Amazon stores 25% of the world’s carbon, according to a 2015 pape…
  • @junkster Its my understanding you let market action fully guide your buy and sell decisions. But, I wonder if you care to speculate about the recent resilience of the high yield market. Do you see it as being mostly due to persistently low inter…
  • Your description made me laugh. But sorry it didn't work out for you. I have been with Fido for decades and am happy with them. Maybe I just signed up before all of the options and designations you describe were available....when life was …
    in Fido Comment by davfor August 17
  • Brexit, slowing globalism, and crazy, things are way to dicey for any sort of risk. Maybe this is just what a wall of worry looks like in a zero interest rate, high liquidity world. Some day the dam will burst and there will be a major downturn i…
    in raising cash Comment by davfor August 15
  • Mostly just watching the show. (Did make one minor portfolio adjustment this afternoon to lock in a loss.) Things have become interesting. Just checked my YTD returns. Up 9.8% through COB today. That's good for my asset mix. Don't really have…
  • @Edmond Thanks for the heads up about Yardeni's blog. His latest entry was definitely worth reading. I used to follow him but somehow lost touch with his writings. My email address is now back in his updates que. It does not appear the central b…
  • Take a look at this chart. You can switch between growth and price. I will miss this when it disappears from M*.... https://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart.action?t=tmsrx&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%…
  • @johnN said: so what is the best plans? buy all these vehicles? There is a saying a carpenter told me about 15 years ago when he was helping my wife and I build our first retirement home. It goes "Its kind of hard saying without really knowing." …
  • @hank You commented... I’ll say I continue to be amazed by the performance of real estate funds. Maintain a small “nibble” in OREAX - and the danged thing is up 19% YTD (20% after today) - following on the heels of several other good years. I keep …
  • There is a weekly newsletter that helps me to wrap my head around this topic. It hit my inbox this morning. Here are a few excerpts: A new Wood Mackenzie report found that the cost of solar power in India is now 14% lower than coal-fired power. …
  • Here are a couple of headlines I just noticed on the Reuters news site. They are signs of how bizzaro things have become. Dropping the rate is now hawkish. Maybe the markets were expecting certainty the rate is heading to zero! "Asian shares see…
  • @catch22 Lets hope the German finance minister's sense about growth prospects for Europe are correct. Its scary to think what might happen if Europe goes the way of Japan. The Fed seems to have its mind set on producing a never ending economic ex…
  • It looks we've got a repeat. https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/51340/prospect-of-fed-cut-pushing-dividend-investors-into-tech-energy
    in . Comment by davfor July 22
  • @catch22 Thanks for the links. I have some old saved links similar to the ones you posted above. But I suspect those links may die fairly soon as they continue to phase out their old format. So, I am trying to be proactive rather than having to …
  • @Rbrt Thanks. It looks like that tool will provide an easy way to obtain quarterly YTD data for my excel portfolio spreadsheet for my existing holdings. That's one part of what I am looking for. Its helpful it accommodates varying numbers of hol…
  • @msf Thanks for the comment. I use Fido's chart sometimes as that is where my money is. But I often like to go back at least 15 years and to compare different types of holdings. And, as you noted, the new M* popup chart does not appear to inclu…
  • @Ted @Lawlar Thanks for the comments. The PerfChart in Teds link does much of what I am looking for although it does not appear to offer the option of saving a created chart that includes a specified starting date such as YTD. It sounds like the…
  • @davidmoran Thanks for the post. Much of what Krugman writes about both politics and the economy in this article make sense to me. And, my warped sense of humor forced me to laugh a couple of times while reading it!
  • @junkster I view any time after 90 as bonus time as far as my investment planning horizon is concerned. My health status is good and my family history suggests living into my 90's is quite possible, likely even probable. But paying attention to a…
  • Interesting short read. I turn 70 in a few months. Based on my current health status and the life spans of my parents and grandparents, I currently have my investment time horizon set at 21 years. I would be 90 years old at that point. Its been …
  • An interesting perspective from a link found in this article: All of the central banks of the world are owned, and mostly controlled, by the governments they represent. The Fed’s vaulted “Independence” is correct, and a tribute to the United State…
  • We purchased a small winter home in the Lemon Bay area of Florida shortly after Hurricane Charley devastated Punta Gorda a few miles down the road in 2004. It was 2 to 3 years before Punta Gorda was almost back to normal. Scarcity of qualified con…
  • “The benefits of this long recovery are now reaching these communities to a degree that has not been felt for many years,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said last week. “Many people who in the past struggled to stay in the workforce are now…
  • The possibility Trump may decide to demote Powell is one of the factors being considered by the markets. (A headline on the Bloomberg website today reads "Trump Says Didn’t Threaten to Demote Fed’s Powell But Has Right". ) It makes sense to have a…
  • WHGIX behaves in a very similar way....but has a somewhat different asset mix...
    in VWINX Comment by davfor June 20
  • That evaluation makes sense to me. Reuters is one of about a half dozen general news sites I visit most days in an attempt to obtain a variety of perspectives concerning current events. They provide the most neutral/fact based coverage.
  • We seem to be stuck in a low interest rate world where the weak get to survive to fight another day. And the Fed seems to be ready to provide some more help. Maybe some of the cracks in the dam in this strange new world get brushed aside because t…
  • In Trump World many things are possible. Another option that may be open to him is to decide that "great progress" has been made in negotiations and then to declare a truce. Additional negotiating could then conveniently extend until after the el…
  • FWIW.....It's my hunch the stock market currently thinks that (a) the Fed will do what it can to try to prolong the current economic expansion and that (b) Trump will claim victories and move on as needed in his international economic battles to try…
  • @hank Today's edition of a daily email from TheBulwark provides a simple and amusing explanation: George Will has a new book about conservatism… and Donald Trump’s name does not appear once. Yesterday, he explained why: "You may notice that in my…
  • Will's thinking seems to be another expression of the blue/red state, urban/rural split. Having lived a few decades in each setting, my left foot is firmly set on one side of the divide and my right foot on the other. What my mind is thinking usu…
  • @Old_Joe I agree that Trump deserves credit for shaking things up with China. But, I also agree with Biden's assessment that he is a "divider-in-chief". Our system needed to be cleansed with a high quality "sheep dip". I just hope the brand that…