Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
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MikeM
I know you are not a fan of his, Mona (understatement :) )
Another Bills fan!!! Junkster just sent me a note saying the same. GO BILLS! They will be right down the road from me when training camp starts next week at St. John Fisher College. But tickets sold out in hours, so I won't be going. Are you from the area, Western NY?
Just a few short weeks ago, Credit Suisse was offering corporate bonds at Schwab with tempting rates over what treasuries were at the time, ~5.26% I believe. I remember actually thinking about it. I think CS was rated A+ with, I thought, a good pedi…
With all this talk about extreme volatility, step back for a second and look at how you've faired the past 6 mo or even year to date. My guess is your investments are likely positive. At least it's nice to know you are weathering the storm.
If volatility is measured by standard deviation, this metric is just saying there is greater dispersion around the mean. It doesn't tell whether there is a trend up or down or if there is just a lot of chaos around an unchanging average.
To be honest @Sven, @Derf, I don't know. All I know is I purchased 2 3mo treasuries as soon as the market opened. One matures 6/27 the other 6/8. Both around 4.6ish %. Does it matter old-new?
One thing I am a little concerned about is the MM sell …
Yes, my vast fortune :) It was a pretty conservative move. The 3 mo treasuries were paying a few 10ths more than the MM anyway. I did put a couple limits orders in to buy more IAU. I've been adding to gold in dribs and drabs anyway in preparation fo…
I don't really have a strategy, but I did move most of my Schwab MM to 3 mo treasuries this morning. Contemplating adding more IAU. Just don't know what Peter to take from to pay Paul.
Wow... logged in to Schwab and the 3, 6, and 9 month Treasuries are well below 5%, like 40-50bps lower than they were Friday. Yikes.
Yes, I noticed the same @rforno. I don't want to over react, but I'd rather be safe than sorry, so I'm moving most o…
Guys, Credit Unions are insured, same as banks, just a different federal agency.
The credit union version of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is the National Credit Union Administration, or NCUA. The FDIC and NCUA are alike in that they insure al…
I'm wondering, is what happen here a by-product of the FEDs late to respond and then (overly) persistent need to get inflation back to 2%, or is this squarely on this banks management? If a by-product of the FEDs actions, you would think there will …
@hank, gold did well yesterday, IAU up 2.2%. I've been adding to what I already had in dribs and drabs since the beginning of the year in leu of the looming deficit fight. I have no doubt one party will risk substantial damage to the economy in that…
Looking at a 1 year trend of SIVB, the stock was dropping steadily over the year. It was already down -50% before yesterdays drop, so I'm wondering if this really was a big surprise to influential investors or they saw the last shoe drop. In compari…
Stinky poopy day, today.
We're just pricing in the 50 basis point FED hit next week. My crystal ball doesn't see anything good happening for a while. Don't fight the FED. Isn't that the motto?
Now you guys have me worried.
At the start of 2022, I started my position in EM fund RNWOX, the Rondure New World fund. This fund, I believe, has been neck and neck with SFGIX for risk adjusted returns. In fact, if you put their trends on top of e…
Thanks for the update @catch22. I've never been much of a bond guy, but I started a toe hold in TIPS a few weeks ago, mostly just to watch them closer than I would typically. VTIP and LTPZ, the 2 ends of the duration spectrum. Pretty much sideways s…
@msf, I got my numbers from charting on 'StockCharts by just moving the bar 30, 90, 180 days and taking the 3/1 value. But as noted, the numbers are just a non-exact reference for comparison to a 1 year treasury. I think a better comparison than loo…
I go back and forth on this fund versus treasuries now in the 4.7-5% range, but RPHYX has actually had a relatively good run the past 6 months.
What I see for total return over that time:
180 days +3.3% extrapolated 1 year return 6.6%
90 days +2.…
Thanks @Roy.
Some excerpts on 2023 and forward.
Where do we see value?
Cyclical stocks—Many, but not all, cyclicals are already partially or completely pricing in a recession. Banks and semiconductor stocks look particularly compelling here.
…
Thanks @Mark. I recently made a switch from AKREX to this ETF. Certainly not an apples to apples category switch, but I like the components and process of AVGE. If I remember correctly, when the Aker fund started out, in it's hay day, it was also mu…
@Old_Joe, a Buffalo home would be safe. Even I can't hit the ball 80 miles from my home in Fairport, the east side of Rochester, although I bet you FD could and I'm sure he will tell you he has :) I truly don't know how he makes the right buys and s…
Ha, I don't even need to attempt cutting a dogleg. If I over swing I have a wicked slice off the tee. Back yards, swimming pools and even a house or two have been hit.
Hi @hank. I guess I have an opposite view of this:
Still, I’d rather be in intermediate duration AAA fixed income than cash because (1) I don’t believe these high rates can persist and (2) high quality bonds should provide better protection in the e…
@Sven, don't you mean apples and oranges comparison? It matters little that your bond fund is yielding 5% if your total return, even with that yield summed in, is down -10% in a year.
Thanks all for the replies on Federal Agency bonds. Looking closer, I do see the Federal mortgage or loan in the issuers names. I see most are callable, but not sure on a 1 year bond that would matter much. But what do I know.
Can anyone explain what a "Government Agencies" bond is. I haven't paid attention to them on Schwab's site because treasuries have been the sweet spot, but now I see a 1 year GA at 5.37%. Does this have the same safety as a treasury?
After a quick read, this seems like an advertisement for TSI Wealth Daily Advice. Seems to be talking about trading portfolios more than investment portfolios.
@yogibearbull said: So, IF one assumes that in the current environment the real rates are peaking too, and IF at some future time they move to new lows (and negative), then TIPS would have a giant rally. But note 2 "IFs".
I've actually learned a lot…
@gman57, thanks. That may be a nice simplistic way of explaining their behavior in 2022. TIP ETFs and MFs lost money when rates increased like every other bond. The term inflation protection is misleading to me and probably every other investor laym…
Thanks @Sven. I had to chuckle a little when I read this. The first sentence of the article, "Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are a complicated investment...". And the last paragraph states, "I know that TIPS are an esoteric and confusing in…
I trust Devo understands this investment in TIPs, but even explained to me I can't say I really understand why they are positioned to move up. I can't invest in something I don't understand. Inflation continued to rise and TIPS continued to fall in …
+ @larryB
I can remember not to many years ago, all the comparison and clear winner from that comparison was CAPE over the S&P 500. It was the clear winner - until it wasn't. I'm sure many bought into CAPE high and sold when it faltered. The ke…
@hank, I believe ratings are based on a peer group comparison. M* says 5* compared to 68 funds. If all the funds in that group sucked, someone had to be less sucky than the rest.
@ carew388, I believe SGGDX may be the only PM/miner fund that actual…
Geritz and Foster write with candor. But their records are less than great.
What? They are both 5 star funds and great owls, I believe. Less than great may pertain to the category, but not these managers.
Agree though if you aren't comfortable on …
Thanks for the post Shadow. I enjoyed the read.
@Crash, I'd say "they taste the same" because they are pretty similar for risk management and stewardship. RNWOX and SFGIX are 2 excellent EM choices, if you want to be in the EM market. I kind of agr…
Customer service has no idea why they can't deliver it here, other than to say that the "distributor" was notified.
@sma3, the distributer in my area distributes all different papers including the local paper, Barrons, WSJ, Times, ect... Same perso…
And the PM miner funds mentioned are around a 40 SD. Not for the timid.
Using M* standard deviation (SD) data,
Gold-bullion GLD SD = 15.12
Silver-bullion SLV SD = 36.39
So, SLV is 2.4x more volatile than GLD.
