Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
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Charles
Thank you sma3! We are spending this summer in northwest again. I have no quiet place I can be before noon eastern (9 am here). Library opens at 9am! I've set up a session for Friday, 2 pm eastern ... posted on board. But, if that does not work, just call me at 805 468 9599 ... if I can pick up I will. Hopefully, can pick a day where you can attended from noon on. Very happy to do! c
@rjb112.
Yes sir. Meb fan I am.
How then do you think investors should use the Shiller P/E in their investing decisions?
Every now and then, I fear Mr. Faber does sound a little like a Cape Crusader. But I think I most align with his preference to …
This is extremely interesting to me since Shiller CAPE has become such a meme:
>> If you avoided equities while they were above their historical CAPE measurement, you just missed 24 years of equity gains.
Hear, hear.
Hear, hear.
Weather looks to be picture perfect here in CA Central Coast.
Parades, music, veggie burgers, tofu hot dogs, organic chips, Rhone wine and fireworks =).
Happy 4th, 2014!
@rjb112.
Great Owl Fund.
The designation is given to funds that achieve top quintile performance in their categories based on Martin Ratio in all evaluation periods 3 years and older.
Here is link to definitions: http://www.mutualfundobserver.com…
@David_Snowball.
Ha!
Some MFO pair we make.
We were camping in Monterey. You know, trying to be a little more like the Harbor Seals in this picture, which was taken while bike-riding along Bay Coastal Trail near Cannery Row...
Best I could d…
Seriously.
All around.
West coast.
East coast.
Construction of new homes.
Construction of hotels.
Refurnished shops.
Refurbished bridges.
Road expansion.
New cars.
New RVs.
Packed air travel.
Packed restaurants.
Packed stadiums.
Firms …
@IChamp.
Before there was ICMUX, there was ICMYX. Same fund, just different share class.
The latter was actually merged into the former this past January, even though ICMYX was the oldest share class, inception Aug 2007.
And...
ICMYX incurred a …
Yes, lousy day.
And on good economic news.
Started out good, but went south in hurry.
Go figure.
As usual, one bad day knocks out the gains of several good days.
Only HCP was up in portfolio. And, SIGIX and RSIVX even.
Red all else.
Let's hope Mr. Parnell is wrong.
Anything can happen, but I continue to see anecdotal evidence of continued growth.
Remain cautiously optimistic about the market.
Fingers-crossed.
@mrdarcey.
Thanks man.
Early on, I believe the board debated why not 7, 12, and 15 years?
When we first rolled it out, I think we had "aspiring GOs" or something like that for funds that were top quintile the past 1 and 3 years. But, after discus…
@davidmoran.
First, a disclaimer. I'm a Steve Romick fan. If FpA did not charge so much for FPACX, I would have owned it long ago.
A look at the numbers...
They are great.
Top quintile across its lifetime and across last two full market cycle…
@mrdarcey. Very good!No indication if a manager has departed, or if the strategy has changed, or what the expense ratio is, stewardship, capital gain implications, etc, etc.
...or category drift, mis-categorization, or survivorship bias, etc.
Hey,…
@davidmoran. No worries. AJ and I just lost lock.
I too worry about downside.
I honestly think Martin is best parameter to use when evaluating downside historical performance.
That's precisely why it's the foundation for the MFO rating system, wh…
@AndyJ.
I just strongly think the MFO GO numerical system doesn't capture what the two funds are doing and how they perform, and M*'s Return:Risk:Stars numerical system more or less does capture it.
I just as strongly disagree.
If you want to send…
@jlev. Absolutely agree. The return groups are directly comparable, but otherwise, the age groups need to be same to compare other metrics. That's something we are working on.
@davidmoran. Thanks man. Glad to see you liking Accipiter's Miraculous Multi Search tool.
Yeah, on the ratings, I think you are suggesting that you want something future looking, kind of like the M* metal system?
Ha!
Well, I'd rely on David's pro…
@Andy. Yes, think we lost lock. Not sure I'm following the issue, sad to say, again.
When you say M* has it, you mean because M* gives PRBLX 5 stars...but it's not a GO on MFO?
If that is the issue, the explanation is easy. M* uses a composite of …
@davidmoran. Hey, MFO rating system is backward looking and strictly by the numbers. It is based on parameters typically not published much, like max drawdown. Some folks find it helpful. I certainly do. But like any system, you need to sensitive …
Good stuff Andy.
OK, I think I see what you are getting at...sorry for being slow.
Yes, funds like YAFFX do have higher standard deviations than PRBLX.
So, if you equate standard deviation with downside risk, then sure its "underweight."
But, du…
@AndyJ. The protocols actually do wickedly well at flagging funds that avoid large and/or extended drawdown. It is PRBLX's performance during the five year bull market that lands it in the 4th quintile. Its five year Martin placed it in spot 66 of t…
Hi David.
Here status as of 1Q14:
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/fund-ratings/?symbol=PRBLX&submit=Submit
Right, it just misses cause the 5 year returns "only" rate a 4 (4th quintile).
But, by the numbers, PRBLX is excellent, GO or not.
…
Hi heezsafe. I don't recall. I did once read Motley Fool and listen to Saturday radio program, years ago. Now, the site overflows with pop-ups, ads, teaser articles to paid services, etc. Rarely visit it any more.
